Jonathan Kuminga, more than any of the other supposed "next up" guys, has been the barometer for the Golden State Warriors' well-chronicled and highly ambitious two-timeline plan.
At every turn the franchise has resisted trading everyone from James Wiseman (before everyone found out he stunk) to Jordan Poole (before everyone found out he stunk) to Moses Moody to Brandin Podziemski for an established star who could, in theory, keep Stephen Curry's window of contention open. Kuminga is the only one whose long-term star upside has ever felt like it could be truly worth the wait.
Is the payoff starting to happen? It depends on how you look at it. Yes, Kuminga had a career-high 33 in a victory over the Rockets on Thursday, closing the game out with the kind of no-frills, forceful downhill drive that almost nobody else on the Warriors can create.
Most importantly, he did this without Curry on the court, which, for purposes of evaluating Kuminga's ability to be a go-to star after Curry's time is eventually up, would suggest he isn't totally dependent on the unique geometric advantages available to him and anyone else in Curry's orbit.
On Sunday, Kuminga backed that up performance with another gem, stuffing the stat sheet with 20 points, seven boards, three steals, two blocks and two assists in a win over the Timberwolves. Kuminga made life difficult on Anthony Edwards with the type of defense he is clearly capable of playing.
The 6-foot-7 forward still doesn't do these things on a consistent basis. His defense is here and there. There are times when he's nowhere to be found on the glass, which is all the more glaring because the Warriors are so reliant on positional rebounding due to their lack of traditional size. He's shooting 30.8% from 3 with a cringeworthy 51.6 true-shooting percentage. His 60% free-throw shooting is a disaster. His 102.9 points per 100 shots rank in the ninth percentile among forwards, per Cleaning the Glass.
Frame the star flashes however you will, but at the end of the day Kuminga is averaging 15 points per game and scoring is the best thing he does. So what's the deal? Are we still only seeing the tip of the Kuminga iceberg? Is Jaylen Brown really somewhere underneath? Or, for all his physical advantages, is he destined to be a star only in these flashes?
If the Warriors believe it's the former, you can understand the reluctance to trade him. If it's the latter, the question becomes much more complicated. You don't have to be an All-NBA player to have serious value as a core component. Jabari Smith Jr. might fit this bill with the Rockets -- another team, like the Warriors, ripe for a consolidation trade. But Smith is a good player. So is Kuminga.
There's no question other teams want these guys. The prevailing perception of Kuminga, in particular, still seems to lean toward future All-Star -- a gray-area tag that, for the Warriors, makes it difficult to determine whether his maximal value to the franchise lies as a long-term foundational piece or as their one short-term trade chip that can anchor a package capable of luring a true second star for Curry.
For Warriors fans, this is Groundhog Day. They've been dancing with this dilemma since Kevin Durant left, really. Outside of Kuminga, not one single defining player of the two-timeline experiment has proved to be worth hanging onto at the possible expense of pursuing more championships over the last chapter of the Curry era, but the surprise 2022 championship, which they won without having to compromise any of the youth they were still trying to evaluate and which Poole was a real part of, makes it tough to criticize the organization's strategy. They basically got their cake and ate it, too.
So now the question becomes: Do they think they can do it again? Do they think they can keep Kuminga and still win, or at least seriously compete for, a title in the coming years? There's been a movement to elevate the Warriors into contender status this season. They're off to a 14-7 start and have a top-five defense (though it's fair to question whether the point-of-attack defense can really hold up, especially without De'Anthony Melton). Even if the defense does prove viable, is Curry enough to lift a middling offense come playoff time? Let alone late-playoff time?
Probably not. He needs an every-night second scorer. Notably someone who can create his own downhill advantages independent of the system, both as a scorer in late-clock and bogged-down possessions and as a kickstarter for the ball-movement-based shots on which Golden State heavily relies. Kuminga fits this description when he's at his best. It's the part of his package that the Warriors, to this point, haven't been willing to give up on.
Between now and February might be their last chance. After that, they'll have to pay Kuminga a barrel of money to keep him. Money he may not end up being worth. To say nothing of the fact that Curry, though he's remained a top-10 player, is firmly in the LeBron James zone where looking ahead is playing with fire. Every elite season could be his last. And as soon as Curry is done as a lead-dog championship player, the Warriors are done as contenders, too. At least for a good while until they build it back up around whoever ends up being the next guy, Kuminga or otherwise.
But right now, Kuminga probably isn't that guy, Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler, who probably still is that guy, even at 35 years old, is reportedly available. Same with Brandon Ingram. But here's the rub: Both those guys are set to become free agents this summer, meaning the Warriors would have to pay them a lot of money to retain them beyond this season or else they would have given up Kuminga for a one-year shot.
Is Kuminga worth that shot, slim as it might be with juggernauts like Boston and OKC to contend with? Is he, ultimately, the key to the Warriors' future or their present? That's the decision in front of Golden State's brass, and it's not an easy one to make. They've got about two months to figure it out.