Why you should bet on the Lakers in Game 4

The Lakers are a much better team than the Heat, and it's going to show itself once more tonight

By Tom Fornelli

Oct 6, 2020 at 3:06 pm ET • 5 min read

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When the news broke Monday that the Houston Texans fired Bill O'Brien, my initial reaction was, "Well it's about time." You know, maybe you could have considered that before allowing O'Brien to gut the entire roster and waste a franchise quarterback like Deshaun Watson. My next thought was about how, even with the current roster and lack of draft picks, this Texans general manager job could be appealing to the right person. I know I'd be interested in it.

Essentially you're starting with a clean slate because everybody is aware of the problems you're facing. How do you build a team without any draft picks? Well, the first thing you probably have to do is trade Deshaun Watson. I know that's a horrible idea if you're a Texans fan, and it won't be a great way to introduce yourself to the Texans fan base, but I think it's the quickest path to getting the franchise to a place where it can compete for Super Bowls.

Plus, you know, you can still pin the blame for having to trade Watson on O'Brien. But if I'm a candidate for that job, I'm going into it knowing that trading Watson is probably the best move I can make. And if I'm the GM of another team right now in need of a QB, I'd be figuring out what I can offer to get him.

Here's some stuff for Texans fans to read to distract themselves from this reality that O'Brien has wrought.

OK, let's make some money

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Lakers vs. Heat, 9 p.m. | TV: ABC
The Pick: Lakers -7.5 (-110): I can't help but notice this line got smaller since Game 3. While the spread for the first game of the NBA Finals was Lakers -4.5, it grew to Lakers -10.5 for Game 2 after a blowout win in the opener. Then it shrank back down to Lakers -9.5 for Sunday's Game 3, and now, after Jimmy G. Buckets went and got a bunch of buckets and other things, it's down to 7.5 for Game 4 on Tuesday. Are the Lakers suddenly a worse team because Jimmy Butler had an all-time game? I don't think so.

So I'm going to take advantage of the shorter spread. The Lakers' two wins in this series have come by an average of 14 points. Also, before the NBA Finals started, the Lakers had lost three games in these playoffs. They won the three games after each loss by an average of 12.3 points each, though a blowout of Portland carries most of that weight. I don't think this series has suddenly turned. The Lakers are a much better team than the Heat, and it's going to show itself once more tonight. Lay the points.

Key Trend: The Heat are 23-31-2 ATS following a win this season.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Check out what SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model has to say about this game. While you do that, I'm going to sit here and think about how the Regular Computer Model feels about the Advanced one taking its job.

💰The Picks

⚾ MLB | Today's full schedule

Yankees vs. Rays, 8:10 p.m | TV: TBS
The Pick: Yankees (+114) -- So, yesterday, I told you all about how the Rays were 8-2 against the Yankees and were the underdogs, so we had to take them. They also had their ace on the mound. So why the change tonight? Well, it's pretty simple. The Rays are favored here, and all the value that was there last night is gone, so we pivot to one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball that's now carrying the value. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow has terrific numbers overall against these Yankees, but Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are a combined 4 for 9 against him with a homer, a walk and only one strikeout. They see him well. Tonight that might be enough.

Key Trend: The Yankees are scoring 10.3 runs per game this postseason.

Padres vs. Dodgers, 9:38 p.m | TV: FS1
The Pick: Dodgers -0.5 First 5 (-120) -- I like the Dodgers to win this game, but the price isn't great. Instead, we'll focus on the spread through the first five innings. Walker Buehler starts for the Dodgers, and he's been the team's best pitcher. Mike Clevinger starts for the Padres, and when he's on, he's great. The problem is that he missed the wild-card round with arm problems -- the same arm problems he's been dealing with for years. They're one reason the Indians didn't mind trading him to San Diego even though they were still alive for the playoffs themselves. I'm not sure what kind of condition Clevinger is in, or how long he'll last. I'm betting on some rust and the Dodgers getting to him early.

Key Trend: The Dodgers have won 36 of 51 against the Padres.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model is heavily favoring one play in the Yankees-Rays ALDS game at 7:10 p.m. ET. SportsLine subscribers can get picks for that game, and for every other MLB game today, here.

💸 The DFS Rundown

Your MVP or Captain

Anthony Davis ($15K FD/$11.4K DK) -- Same as it ever was. Davis had an off night in Game Three after dealing with early foul trouble, but he's still the best player on the court in this series. If you want to go Galaxy Brain and fade him in case he has another off night, that's your prerogative, but you won't catch me doing it.

Value

Kyle Kuzma ($7K FD/$4.6K DK) -- I'm smelling a nice game from Kuzma tonight. He played well in Game 3, finishing with 19 points thanks to four three-pointers, and I think he carries that confidence into tonight. I also think he'll do a bit more elsewhere in the box score to help fill out your lineup.

Full lineup advice

SportsLine's team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS and is one of the top MLB DFS experts anywhere. Check out his MLB picks here, and be sure to see what he's picking for NBA DFS here too. Use SportsLine's all-new DFS Optimizer to get optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.