Could returning to Texas for 2027 finally make Arch Manning a top-five NFL Draft pick?

For most of his football career, the question surrounding Arch Manning was when he'd enter the NFL Draft, not whether he would be ready once he got there. But five games into the 2026 season, we're having the same conversation we had midway through 2025: should he spend another year at Texas?

Coach Steve Sarkisian said in June that he "wouldn't be surprised" if Manning returned for a fifth season in 2027. Earlier this month, uncle Eli Manning told Colin Cowherd that there's value in the college experience beyond simply preparing for the NFL, including opportunities to develop as a quarterback and leader.

There has been no formal announcement, but the possibility raises a question worth exploring (again): Could one more year in college transform Manning into the top-five pick we've been hearing about, this time in the 2028 NFL Draft?

He turns 23 in the spring, but despite four years in college, Manning has made just 20 career starts. He could finish 2026 with 27-30, and another season would push him toward 40. The question then becomes: would the additional games make a meaningful difference? History offers reasons for optimism, along with some warnings.

What Arch has shown, and what's missing

As discussed repeatedly, Manning's physical talent isn't the problem. He has a big arm, he navigates the pocket as well as anyone in the class, can excel off-platform and is an asset in the run game. And despite the uneven performances, he's quietly one of the better deep-ball throwers in this quarterback class.

Through five games, Manning has a 93.1 PFF passing grade on throws traveling at least 20 yards, with 10 big-time throws on 24 attempts. He's completed only nine, but drops and circumstances matter. The tape routinely shows a quarterback who can throw with touch, drive and accuracy downfield.

The problems pop up elsewhere, particularly when his first read isn't available.

Manning can play hurried, at times, in clean pockets. It affects his footwork, accuracy and field vision. He'll skip reads, and there are stretches when he appears to see only part of the field.

Saturday's 27-24 loss to Oklahoma again offered both versions of Manning. He looked like the best player on the field on his 41-yard touchdown throw to Cam Coleman.

He had another big-boy touchdown toss to Ryan Wingo later in the game. And this laser to Coleman might be the best throw of his career:

But two fourth-quarter interceptions brought it all crashing back down to earth, again highlighting the decision-making and accuracy issues we've discussed for 14 months. It's why, even before the loss to Oklahoma, I had dropped Manning from my first mock draft of the fall. (Last year, I first dropped Manning from my mock draft in early November, a month before he announced his return to school.)

The fifth-year quarterbacks who made the leap

The encouraging news is that quarterbacks have made substantial improvements when returning to school for Year 5.

Jayden Daniels entered his fifth season with more than 40 career starts. We all knew who he was athletically; he just needed to be more consistent as a passer. In his final season at LSU in 2023, his PFF passing grade jumped from 79.1 to 92.0, his big-time throw rate nearly tripled and his pressure-to-sack rate fell from 30.8% to 20.2%, suggesting better pocket awareness and decision-making under pressure.

Daniels won the Heisman Trophy, was the No. 2 overall pick in 2024 and immediately helped the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game as a rookie.

Cam Ward perhaps offers the more relevant comparison.

At Washington State in 2023, Ward displayed the big arm and the ability to create outside the pocket. But he could also lock onto his first read, hold the ball too long, leave clean pockets and force unnecessary throws. Sound familiar?

After transferring to Miami for his fifth season, Ward was more comfortable working through reads, playing on time and managing pressure. His passing grade climbed from 77.5 to 91.7, while his pressure-to-sack rate improved by nine percentage points.

His First-Round Readiness Score (FRED), which measures how closely a quarterback's college resume resembles previous first-round picks, jumped from 6.8 before that season to 49.3. For context, 50 represents the average first-round resume. Ward was the No. 1 overall pick in 2025.

But there's another side to his story. As I wrote recently about Ward and the Titans, through 22 NFL starts, he ranks tied for 51st in EPA per dropback among 56 first-round quarterbacks who had as many starts in their first three seasons. His 5.8 yards per attempt ranks 52nd.

The familiar concerns -- holding the ball and passing up easier throws -- have followed him to the NFL. It's a reminder that another college season can turn a player into QB1 without necessarily making him a successful NFL starter.

Bo Nix is another example. He entered his fifth season with 47 starts, improved his passing grade from 79.2 to 92.7 and went 12th overall in 2024. His first two NFL seasons were encouraging, although he's struggled to begin 2026.

How much did another season change things?

*Ward's total excludes earlier FCS experience. Penix Jr. returned for a sixth season.

When more experience isn't always enough

Of course, returning to school guarantees nothing, as Garrett Nussmeier can attest. After throwing for more than 4,000 yards in 2024, he returned to LSU with just 14 career starts and legitimate first-round buzz. Instead, injuries and inconsistent play derailed his fifth season, and the quarterback once considered QB1 fell all the way to the seventh round, going 249th overall, eight picks from Mr. Irrelevant.

Spencer Rattler is another cautionary example. Like Manning, he had outstanding arm talent but struggled with the must-haves that separate franchise QBs from NFL backups. Rattler improved in some areas during his fifth season at South Carolina, and I had a third-round grade on him heading into the 2024 draft, but the league viewed him as a Day 3 pick and he wasn't selected until the fifth round.

Carson Beck is another example, but for a different reason. After a disappointing final season at Georgia in 2024, Beck transferred to Miami and was a much better quarterback in 2025. He was more confident, more decisive and had greater command of the offense. As I wrote following his pro day, he also became a better leader, helping Miami to the national title game while breathing new life into his NFL Draft stock. QB1 heading into that 2024 season, Beck was considered a Day 3 prospect months later, only to work himself back into the mix this spring, where he went 65th overall.

The takeaway? Another year in college can make a quarterback better – but it's a two-way street. Daniels and Beck made the most of their additional seasons, while Nussmeier watched his draft stock implode. And as we're seeing with Ward, just because you're the No. 1 overall pick doesn't promise success in the NFL.

So what would a fifth year mean for Arch?

At 22, with just 20 starts, Manning still has room to develop. And historical examples suggest there's no reason to assume development stops after four years of college.

But there's a difference between getting better and becoming the next great Manning. Arch can already make the spectacular throws – we watch it every week. But for NFL teams, it's about what it's always been about, and what former NFL quarterback and CBS Sports colleague Danny Kanell talked about recently:

"Ninety percent of playing quarterback is making boring decisions, but making the right decisions, making the right reads, getting in the right protection, getting the right run plays. And then the 10% is what makes guys super special," Kanell said. 

"When the play breaks down, they get outside the pocket or they take the big shot … and Arch at times has had some of those wow plays.

"The problem that I've had with him is the 90% that he should be just delivering it at this point. Last year he had an excuse as the first-year starter. … He's been at Texas a few years. He's been able to learn the system; he should know it inside and out. They went out and got him the best wide receiver in the transfer portal in Cam Coleman, who's a stud. They got him two running backs, they got him all these pieces so that he should be putting up monster numbers and he should be performing much better, but he's not."

Another 12-15 starts could absolutely give Manning the opportunity to show that growth. It could also provide evaluators with more evidence that he is who he is. And maybe all of this is moot; maybe Manning puts it all together over the next two months, and we all agree he's one of the best players in the draft class. 

It's possible, sure, but it seems more likely that he'll run it back one more time. And if Manning does return, the historical evidence offers a clear lesson: Being 23 years old with some 40 college starts won't prevent him from becoming a top-five pick. What matters is whether another season can make those flashes of brilliance the rule rather than the exception.