Drew Allar entered the Penn State campus with significance. He was a five-star recruit and the No. 1 quarterback in the high-school class of 2022 per 247 Sports, making him the most sought-after quarterback recruit to play for the Nittany Lions in a very long time.
In mid-December, the still-not 21-year-old Allar announced he planned to return to Penn State for his third season as the full-time starter. Since then, Allar's team has won two College Football Playoff games, 38-10 over SMU, and 31-14 over Boise State en route to the Orange Bowl against Notre Dame with a trip to the national title game on the line.
With the later championship game -- January 20 this year -- the NFL has pushed back the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft. It's now January 24.
Despite Allar's intentions already being made public, should he reconsider? If he shines against Notre Dame, should he capitalize on what is widely considered a "down" quarterback class? Let's first evaluate Allar as a prospect then answer whether or not he should submit his name into the 2025 NFL Draft.
Prospect overview
Listed at 6-foot-5 and 243 pounds, Allar ticks the size box emphatically. His birthday is March 5, 2004, so if he did enter the 2025 draft, he'd be one of the youngest prospects in it.
As a freshman at Penn State in 2022, he threw a combined 60 passes, mostly in mop-up duty with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Since then, he's been the full-time starter.
He enters this CFP semifinal against Notre Dame with 28 starts under his belt in college, comparable to the start figures for C.J. Stroud (25 starts at Ohio State), and Drake Maye (26 starts at North Carolina).
Recently, mostly due to extra eligibility granted from COVID-19, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix, who had 55 and 61 college starts respectively, have skewed the thinking on a threshold for starts at the quarterback position before declaring for the NFL Draft.
Everything about Allar's profile oozes upside -- he's very young, without a litany of starts to his name, and has a powerful arm. Whenever he declares, there will be many teams tantalized by the quarterback he could become in the NFL with proper development.
Strengths
Allar is large. For as much as simply being big isn't a strength, it does typically hint at legitimate positives to a quarterback's profile. He'll have no problems seeing over his line of scrimmage, and in theory, has enough thickness to absorb hits without them taking as much of a physical toll on his body as a smaller quarterback with less weight on his frame.
Also, usually larger quarterbacks have stronger arms, and Allar has the most live, powerful arm of any quarterback eligible for the 2025 NFL Draft. He can really spin the football -- yes, more impressively than Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. No one would argue that. Allar has outstanding footwork for a 20-year-old quarterback too. He methodically moves through progressions with aligned feet, hips, and shoulders, which allows him to always be ready to release the football if he likes what he sees.
Beyond dazzling arm strength and teaching-tape whole-body alignment, Allar provides some value as a runner. He's not twitchy, sudden, or explosive. But despite his propensity for standing and scanning from the pocket in a classic sense, there's a growing ad-libbing element to his game, and it's become more apparent as he's gotten more comfortable as Penn State's starter.
Weaknesses
For as much as Allar provides glimpses of an elite-level quarterback he could become in the future, he's demonstrated ample play that tracks with him being a 20-year-old passer with fewer than 30 college starts to his name.
He's still learning how to calmly navigate pressure within the pocket, not frequently reacting appropriately to the blitz with a throw to the hole in coverage. While he appears to be reasonably tough -- unafraid to take a hit immediately after releasing the football -- his accuracy dips significantly when his throws are rushed. His typical miss is high in that scenario, but there were also misses short and wide of his intended target.
Despite improving improvisational skill, it's almost as if Allar trusts his legs more than he should. He can be awkward attempting to elude rushers with average-at-best foot quickness and doesn't appear to have a genuinely natural knack for creating outside of the play called in the huddle. That part of his game is ascending but not quite there yet, and we shouldn't be surprised given his youthfulness.
Should he declare?
I've painted the picture of Allar, a prodigiously talented quarterback with unsurprisingly raw components to his game and an upward facing arrow. Of course he shouldn't declare, right?
Actually, I think he should. Or, I guess, I'll offer zero criticism if he decides to bolt for the pros. And I've almost always been an advocate of quarterbacks staying in college to hone their intricate set of skills before entering the uber-challenging, lightning-fast NFL.
Allar's case is different.
At the top of the 2025 quarterback class are Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. Some teams might eventually be enamored with Jalen Milroe from Alabama, yet he's more of a project than a ready-to-go NFL starter. And the knocks on Sanders and Ward, two productive long-time collegiate starters, are centered around their lacking physical traits. Neither has a hose for an arm, Sanders is an average athlete, and Ward has footwork issues to work through at the next level.
Allar would instantly be the most physically gifted quarterback in the class, and at his age, would come with the most upside. While quarterback reputations can morph in a flash at the college level, with South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, Tennessee's Nico Iamaleava, Texas' Arch Manning, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, Clemson's Cade Klubnik, Arizona State's Sam Leavitt, and Oregon State's Maalik Murphy all set to return to college football in 2025, it's shaping up to be a much more talented and considerably deeper draft class in 2026.
Critically, most of those quarterback prospects are elite talents. There won't be nearly as many questions about size, arm strength, or athleticism available in the 2026 draft class of quarterbacks as there is right now with Sanders, Ward, and Co. Allar may very well find himself as simply another name in a crowded group.
If he stays at Penn State another season, he'll lose tight end Tyler Warren, the undisputed heartbeat of the the Nittany Lions passing game, with over 90 receptions and north of 1,000 yards upon entering the Orange Bowl. And running back Nicholas Singleton could follow him.
Beyond any roster composition concerns at Penn State or pondering how he'd compare to quarterbacks in the 2026 class is this seminal question; if Allar indeed reconsiders and enters the 2025 draft, will it stunt his growth and ultimately derail what feels like immense long-term NFL upside?
Given the proliferation of easy-button throws on first reads and/or underneath in today's NFL that could theoretically ease his acclimation process to the NFL, I don't think an "early" jump for Allar would dash his long-term potential. Would it come with more developmental risks? Absolutely. But while I care much more about long-term NFL success than draft position, I understand the importance of and variance in organizational buy-in for a prospect -- particularly a quarterback -- based on draft position. And so much about succeeding at quarterback in the NFL centers around team investment.
If he enters now, Allar's physical prowess is guaranteed to stand out. And he's almost assured to receive more "resources" and a longer developmental leash from a club selecting him inside the Top 10 or 15 picks in the 2025 draft than if he's a second-round selection in 2026.
Of course, Allar could return to Penn State, mature as a thrower, boost his statistics and sharpen his overall skill set, making him a No. 1 overall pick candidate. But many dominoes would need to fall perfectly in line for that to happen, and some would be out of Allar's control -- like how well his 2026 class contemporaries play next college football season.
When considering the opportunity in 2025 and the potential risks of waiting, I believe Allar should declare for the 2025 NFL Draft.
