When the 2024 NFL schedule was released, many pointed at the Week 8 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys as a potential preview of the NFC Championship Game. After all, San Francisco has appeared in the contest four of the last five seasons and Dallas has made the playoffs six times in the past 10 campaigns.
However, neither team has performed anywhere close to expectations in 2024. The 49ers (3-4) are under .500 after seven weeks for the third time in the last four seasons, while the Cowboys (3-3) have been outscored 119-53 while going 0-3 at home. With both clubs coming off decisive losses, their showdown on Sunday Night Football has the feeling that it will be something of an elimination game in terms of this year's playoffs.
San Francisco's offense has been riddled with injuries all season thus far. Reigning NFL rushing champion and Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey has yet to step on the field due to Achilles tendinitis in both legs. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel missed the 49ers' 27-24 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3 with a calf injury and participated in only four plays in last weekend's 28-18 setback against the Kansas City Chiefs due to pneumonia, for which he was hospitalized.
Samuel reportedly was discharged on Tuesday, but his status for the matchup against Dallas is unknown. Tight end George Kittle sprained his foot in the meeting with Kansas City and is day-to-day and Jauan Jennings, who leads the team with 404 receiving yards, missed the contest with a hip injury and is questionable for Week 8.
The biggest blow in the loss to the Chiefs came late in the first half, when wideout Brandon Aiyuk tore both his ACL and MCL in his right knee. The 26-year-old, who nearly was traded in the offseason before signing a four-year, $120 million contract extension in late August, is done for the season after making 25 catches for 374 yards in seven games.
In addition, kicker Jake Moody has been out since suffering a high-ankle sprain while making a tackle in San Francisco's 24-23 loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5. Replacement Matthew Wright made three field goals and a trio of extra points in the team's 36-24 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks the following week but injured both his shoulder and back while also making a tackle late in that contest and was placed on injured reserve.
The Cowboys haven't been able to avoid the injury bug either, most notably on the defensive side of the football. Cornerback DaRon Bland, who led the NFL in 2023 with nine interceptions -- including a record five returned for touchdowns -- suffered a stress fracture in his foot during training camp and has yet to play this season.
Defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence landed on injured reserve after suffering a foot injury in Dallas' 20-15 victory against the New York Giants in Week 4 and was expected to miss 4-8 weeks. In that same game, 2021 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons went down with a high-ankle sprain and has yet to return.
According to team owner Jerry Jones, Bland and Parsons both could be back for the showdown with the 49ers. The Cowboys certainly would welcome them back with open arms, as they were torched by the Detroit Lions prior to their bye week, losing 47-9.
Dallas failed to record a touchdown in that defeat as quarterback Dak Prescott threw for a season-low 178 yards with a pair of interceptions. Receiver CeeDee Lamb hauled in seven passes for 89 yards, keeping him without a 100-yard performance this season after recording eight of them in 2023, as well as one in the Cowboys' 48-32 playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Despite their injury woes, the 49ers enter Week 8 ranked third in the NFL in total offense with an average of 404.3 yards per game. They are fourth in passing (254.4 yards), seventh in rushing (149.9) and ninth in scoring (25.7 points).
Conversely, the Cowboys haven't been very successful defensively without their missing players, although their struggles can't all be attributed to injuries. Dallas is 24th in the league in total defense with an average of 356.5 yards allowed, 27th against the run (143.2) and 19th versus the pass (213.3) while ranking 31st in points surrendered at 28 per contest.
Entering the 2024 season, the outlook for San Francisco was very good. The SportsLine Projection Model deemed a second consecutive battle between the 49ers and Chiefs as the most likely matchup for Super Bowl LIX, proclaiming it would happen 8.1% of the time in its simulations.
Thanks to its disappointing start, things aren't looking quite as favorable for San Francisco right now. All hope is not lost, however, as the club is tied with Arizona for second place in the NFC West - just one game behind division-leading Seattle.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects the 49ers to win the division 40.6% of the time and gives them a 47.3% chance to make the playoffs. It has their prospects of appearing in the Super Bowl at 8.6% and winning it at 4.2%.
A victory against the Cowboys on Sunday would boost San Francisco's chances of capturing the NFC West title to 51% and reaching the postseason to 60%. But the model says a third straight home loss drops those numbers to 33% and 37%, respectively.
Considering it currently is third in the NFC East, Dallas could be a longshot to qualify for the playoffs with a loss to San Francisco. The Cowboys are 10th in the conference standings, sit one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles in the division and trail the first-place Washington Commanders by 1 ½ games.
The model currently says Dallas wins the NFC East 9.8% of the time and earns a postseason berth in 27.6% of its simulations. A triumph over the 49ers would increase its division title chances to 18% and playoff prospects to 42%, but a loss respectively would reduce them to 9% and 21%.
Including the playoffs, San Francisco has won three consecutive meetings with Dallas. The 49ers rolled past the Cowboys 42-10 in Week 5 last season as quarterback Brock Purdy threw four touchdown passes, including three to Kittle, and Jordan Mason rushed for a game-high 69 yards and a TD while San Francisco outgained Dallas 421-197 in total yards and 170-57 on the ground.
Both of Dallas' last two victories were by fewer than six points, and the model is calling for a close contest between the Cowboys and 49ers on Sunday Night Football. However, it isn't one of the four with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the eighth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 8 NFL picks at SportsLine.