Chest bumps. Bro hugs. Ric Flair-level woos.
The happiest place on Earth on Sunday arguably was not Disney World, but rather the Minnesota Vikings' locker room at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. After the Vikings blew out the AFC South-leading Houston Texans 34-7 to improve to 3-0 on the young season, players and coaches celebrated with the joy of children on Christmas morning.
With the team gathered around him, coach Kevin O'Connell gave a speech fitting for a politician at a campaign rally.
"You know what this is starting to feel like?" he said. "A team that believes every time we take the field we're going to win a football game."
He added: "I can tell you right now that we are capable of absolutely anything that is out in front of us right now. We are capable of stacking it all together, leaning in with one another, and special, special s--- is going happen to this football team."
Through three weeks the Vikings — a team that opened as the biggest longshots to win the NFC North — sit alone atop the division. The favored Lions and Packers are 2-1, and the Bears are 1-2, leaving the NFC North upside-down.
How long can this purple reign last?
Not long, according to the SportsLine Projection Model. Despite the team's fast start, the model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, gives Minnesota just a 30.1% chance to win the division. While that percentage is almost six times the Vikings' percentage prior to the season (5.2%), it still trails the Packers (43.2%). The model also gives Green Bay (72.4%) a better chance of making the playoffs than Minnesota (63.9%).
As far as the Super Bowl, the Vikings have a 2.5% chance of lifting the Lombardi trophy, according to the model. That is shy of the team's implied odds of 3.85%, based on the +2500 price at DraftKings, meaning there's no value on Minnesota in Super Bowl futures.
So why is the model still low on the Vikings? Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says it's all about quarterback Sam Darnold. The 27-year-old Darnold has been widely considered a bust since being drafted No. 3 overall by the Jets in 2018. Over the last six seasons with three different teams (Jets, Panthers and 49ers), he threw almost as many interceptions (56) as touchdowns (63).
But so far this year Darnold, who was named the starter in the preseason after No. 10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy was lost for the season to a knee injury, has thrown eight touchdowns and just two interceptions. He had never had a game with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions in his career until Sunday.
"The Vikings can maintain their surprising success if Sam Darnold's touchdown-to-interception ratio stays at 2:1," Oh says. "But because his sample size of a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is so much larger, the simulations are still projecting a high interception rate, 21 touchdowns versus 15 interceptions, for the rest of the season."
However, if Darnold can keep his touchdown-to-interception ratio at 2:1, Oh says Minnesota's chance to make the playoffs would jump from 63.9% to 70.0%.
O'Connell's track record suggests that Darnold can maintain his level of play. Last season, under the guidance of O'Connell, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins had a 3.6 touchdown-to-interception ratio (18 touchdowns versus five picks) through eight games before going down for the season with an Achilles injury. That was the third-best ratio in a single season of Cousins' 12-year career.
Already O'Connell has shown confidence this season in Darnold's abilities. In the second quarter of the Week 2 win over the reigning NFC champion 49ers and with Minnesota facing second-and-9 from its own 3-yard-line, O'Connell trusted Darnold to throw a play-action pass from his own end zone. The play resulted in a 97-yard touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson.
After Sunday's win over Houston, O'Connell awarded a game ball to Darnold. "Make no mistake about it," the coach said. "It was not close who led their team today and who made the plays he had to make. [We've been] leaning on him all year long."
As for Week 4, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Vikings and Green Bay Packers. However, that game isn't one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for Week 4. You can find those top-tier Week 4 NFL picks at SportsLine.
