When it comes to the playoffs race, the NFL loves to see a lot of drama down the stretch, but that definitely won't be happening in the AFC East.
As we head into Week 11, the 8-2 Bills are absolutely dominating the division. Although they can't clinch anything this week, the Bills could have the division wrapped by Week 14. To clinch the AFC East, the Bills just need to win three more games and it doesn't matter what any other team in the division does (They could clinch it even sooner if the Jets, Patriots and Dolphins all lose at least one game over the next two weeks). Basically, there's no drama in the AFC East, but there is plenty of drama when it comes to the other playoff spots in the NFL.
So who's going to get in besides the Bills?
To help you figure out who's going to make the playoffs this year, we're going to be publishing a projection every week for the rest of the season. These projections will be based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh will plug some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulate the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we'll project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections heading into Week 11.
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC West champion) | |
| Not only does the computer view the Chiefs (9-0) as the favorite to get the top seed in the AFC, but Kansas City also has the highest percentage chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs' chances are sitting at 17.8% and the Bills are right behind them at 16.4%, which tells you how big this week's showdown is. The Chiefs and Bills will be facing each other at Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS. | |
| 2. (AFC East champion) | |
| The NFL might want to go ahead and start selling playoff tickets to Bills fans, because the computer views it as a virtual lock that Buffalo (8-2) will be hosting at least one playoff game this year. The Bills have a 99.8% chance of winning the AFC East, which is what happens when you have a 4.5-game lead over the second-place team heading into Week 11. | |
| 3. (AFC North champion) | |
| The computer likes the Ravens (7-3) to win the AFC North, but that could change after Week 11. The Ravens will be traveling to Pittsburgh for a showdown on Sunday. If the Ravens win, their chances of winning the division will shoot up from 65.4% to 81.9%. | |
| 4. (AFC South champion) | |
| The Texans (6-4) lost a heartbreaker to the Lions in Week 10, but the computer doesn't think that will really impact their chances of winning the AFC South. Heading into Week 11, the Texans still have a 91.8% chance of winning the division. The Colts are currently in second place, but the computer is only giving them a 6.5% chance of winning the AFC South. | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The computer views the Steelers as a lock to make the playoffs with a 97.8% chance of getting in, but the computer doesn't like their chances of winning the division. One thing working against the Steelers is that they have a brutal remaining schedule with two games against the Ravens, two games against the Bengals, plus games against the Chiefs and Eagles. | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| The Chargers have quietly put together a 6-3 start and the computer has been absolutely impressed. Our projection is giving the Chargers a 93.9% chance of making the playoffs, which would be just their third postseason trip over the past 10 years. | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| Despite their shocking loss to the Chiefs in Week 10, the Broncos (5-5) are still projected to finish in the seventh spot in the AFC and that's mostly because the two teams behind them in the standings -- Cincinnati and Indianapolis -- also lost in Week 10. That being said, the computer is giving the Broncos just a 39% chance of making the playoffs, which tells you how wide open this spot is. The computer views the race for the final spot in the AFC as a three-way battle between the Bengals (4-6), Broncos and Colts (4-6). The Broncos will play both of those teams over the final four weeks of the season, so there will almost certainly be some playoff drama in the AFC down the stretch. | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Bengals (28.7%), Colts (26.5%), Dolphins (11.6%), Jets (4.1%), Jaguars (2.0%), Patriots (1.0%), Titans (0.8%), Browns (0.4%), Raiders (0.1%).
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC North champion) | |
| The computer views the Lions as the only true Super Bowl contender in the NFC. The Lions are being given a 16.1% chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy, which is a high number when you consider that no other NFC team even has a 7% chance of winning it all (The Commanders have the next highest chance at 6.5%). | |
| 2. (NFC East champion) | |
| The computer views the NFC East as a neck-and-neck race with the Commanders (7-3) having a 58.6% chance of winning the division while the Eagles are sitting at 41.4%. These two teams will play on Thursday night in a huge game, but the Commanders could still be in a good spot even if they lose. One reason the computer likes Washington is because the Commanders have a much easier schedule down the stretch with two games against the Cowboys, plus games against the Titans and Saints over the final seven weeks. | |
| 3. (NFC South champion) | |
| The Falcons (6-4) slipped up in Week 10 with a shocking loss to the Saints, but despite that setback, the computer still loves their chances of winning the NFC South. According to our projection, the Falcons still have an 87.3% chance of winning the division. Although Atlanta is only two games ahead of the Buccaneers (4-6), it's actually more like three games since the Falcons swept Tampa Bay, which gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker. | |
| 4. (NFC West champion) | |
| The 49ers (5-4) are being predicted to win the NFC West, but the computer does think the Cardinals could sneak in and steal the division. The 49ers are being given a 44.1% chance of taking home the division title, but Arizona is right behind them at 42.8%. One thing working in the Cardinals favor is that they already have a head-to-head win over San Francisco. These two teams will also meet again in Week 18. | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The Eagles (7-2) are currently in first place in the NFC East, but the computer has them dropping to second by the end of the season. One reason for that drop is because the Eagles have a tough closing schedule that includes two games against Washington, plus one game against both the Ravens and Steelers over the final eight weeks. | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| Sam Darnold seems to be falling apart, but the computer still loves the Vikings. Not only is Minnesota being given an 83.9% chance of making the playoffs, but the computer actually bumped them up one spot from last week, moving them ahead of Green Bay in this week's projection. | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| The Packers currently have a 74.9% chance of getting a wild-card spot, but the computer doesn't view them as a total lock. The Cardinals are being given a 52.2% chance of making the postseason, which means the computer basically views the NFC playoff race as eight teams fighting for seven spots. | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Cardinals (52.2%), Buccaneers (22.5%), Seahawks (11.5%), Rams (7.9%), Bears (3.0%), Saints (2.0%), Cowboys (0.2%), Panthers (0.2%), Giants (0.0%).
Note: The Giants aren't eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Chargers at (3) Ravens
(5) Steelers at (4) Texans
Bye: Chiefs
NFC
(7) Packers at (2) Commanders
(6) Vikings at (3) Falcons
(5) Eagles at (4) 49ers
Bye: Lions