We get a Week 9 rematch in Super Wild Card Weekend, as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs play host to Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins. These two teams last met in Germany, with Kansas City earning a 21-14 victory. The Chiefs scored all 21 points in the first half, while the Dolphins scored zero.
Kansas City held its former star wideout, Hill, to 62 receiving yards on eight receptions, while the defense held Tua Tagovailoa's unit to 292 yards of total offense. Miami finished the year with the No. 1 offense, averaging 401.3 yards of total offense per game.
This time around, the game will be held in Arrowhead Stadium. Will Miami be able to orchestrate the playoff run it couldn't last year, or will the Chiefs begin their AFC title defense in strong fashion? Below, we will break down three reasons why the Chiefs will defeat the Dolphins, and advance to the divisional round of the playoffs. First, here's how to watch this matchup.
How to watch
Date: Saturday, Jan. 13 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Stream: Peacock
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -4.5, O/U 44 (Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus)
It will be cold
Arrowhead is a tough place to play, but here's the real home-field advantage. Weather.com says Saturday in Kansas City will feature conditions that include a high of 8 degrees, and a low of -6 degrees. Winds will also be from 10-20 miles per hour, and at kickoff, the temperature is expected to be right around 5 degrees with a wind chill of -10, according to the National Weather Service. The Dolphins have lost 10 straight games when there's a kickoff temp below 40 degrees, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Tagovailoa has lost the five coldest starts of his career. He completed 57% of his passes for five touchdowns and seven interceptions in those matchups. In fact, he's 6-13 in games under 70 degrees, and 23-4 in games of 70+ degrees.
Tagovailoa had a great season, as he ranked top five in passing yards, completion percentage and passing touchdowns. In fact, he led the league in passing yards this season with 4,624, becoming the first Dolphins quarterback to win the passing title since Dan Marino did so in 1992. But this weekend, Tagovailoa is going to have to change the narrative when it comes to him and cold weather.
Dolphins injuries
Injuries stink, and all 32 NFL teams have had to deal with them this season. For the Dolphins, however, it feels like their situation keeps getting worse and worse. Miami didn't have running back Raheem Mostert or wide receiver Jaylen Waddle during their Week 18 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Maybe they return this weekend, but let's look at the defensive side of the ball.
Per NFL Media, the Dolphins will not have linebackers Jerome Baker or Andrew Van Ginkel vs. the Chiefs. Baker had wrist surgery and could miss the entire postseason. Van Ginkel has a foot injury that could cost him the entire playoffs as well. Additionally, linebacker Cameron Goode tore his patella tendon and is done for the year, while Mike McDaniel says the Dolphins are "not planning" for star cornerback Xavien Howard to play due to his foot injury, per NFL Media. Keep in mind that the Dolphins are already down Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips at pass rusher. Miami had to bring in 34-year-old Justin Houston for help. You don't want to be short-handed when facing Mahomes, but Miami unfortunately is.
Chiefs defense
The Chiefs offense hasn't been magnificent in 2023, but the defense has. Kansas City finished second in the NFL in yards allowed per game (289.8), and points allowed per game (17.3). The 17.3 points per game are the fewest in any season under head coach Andy Reid. In fact, the Chiefs became the first team since the 2012 Seattle Seahawks to hold every opponent under 28 points. Yes, Miami has an offense capable of explosions, but the Dolphins haven't scored more than 22 points in three straight games now. As we mentioned above, the Chiefs held the Dolphins' No. 1-ranked offense to 292 yards of total offense when they met earlier this year.
Hill will absolutely be out for a monster revenge game against his former team in his former stadium, but he's dealing with ankle and quad injuries, and if there's one defense that knows Hill and is capable of stopping him, it has to be Steve Spagnuolo's unit in the blistering cold in a hostile environment.
