With five games on the Week 3 NFL schedule with NFL totals of 40 points or fewer, it might be enticing to favor the high side when betting NFL over-unders this week. However, unders are 17-14-1 over the first two weeks thanks to historically low passing numbers. Rookie quarterbacks in particular have catered to under bettors, with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix failing to throw a single touchdown pass over the first two weeks and unders hitting in four of their six starts combined.
Conventional wisdom says that those three rookies will eventually start to settle in, but how long can you ride the NFL trends before we reach equilibrium? Which Week 3 NFL totals should you be targeting as you put together your Week 3 NFL over/under picks? Before you make any Week 3 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. It's also 8-5 on top-rated over/under picks since the start of that season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has scoured the Week 3 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL over/under best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 3 NFL total picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 3 NFL total picks
One part of the five-line NFL totals parlay we can reveal: The model says we'll see the Over (49.5) hits in New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. This is a matchup between the No. 1 scoring offense (New Orleans) and the No. 5 scoring offense (Philadelphia) over the first two weeks of the season and the model is expecting an accordingly high-scoring affair.
The Saints are averaging 45.5 points per game despite pulling starters in blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys to open the season and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will have a chance to get after one of the NFL's worst secondaries on Sunday. The Eagles ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense last season and are 28th after the first two games of 2024.
New Orleans has scored on all 15 of Derek Carr's possessions this season so there's potential for the Saints to put a significant dent in this total by themselves. Meanwhile, the Eagles are averaging 27.5 points and 387.5 yards of offense over the first two weeks and are more than capable of making a sizable contribution of their own. The model predicts that the over hits in well over 50% of simulations, with a projected final score of Saints 28, Eagles 25. See which other NFL over/under parlay picks to make here.
How to parlay Week 3 NFL over/unders
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the over-under is way off, including two that hit in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL Week 3 best bets and over/under parlay at SportsLine.
So how many points are scored in each game and which over/unders should you include for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 3 NFL total picks from a model on an 187-130 run on top-rated picks, and find out.
Week 3 NFL totals, spreads, schedule
Get Week 3 NFL over/under predictions at SportsLine
Sunday, Sept. 22
Giants at Browns (-6.5, 39.5)
Bears at Colts (-1, 43.5)
Texans at Vikings (+2, 46)
Eagles at Saints (-2.5, 49.5)
Chargers at Steelers (-1.5, 36)
Broncos at Buccaneers (-6.5, 41)
Packers at Titans (-2.5, 38)
Panthers at Raiders (-5, 40)
Dolphins at Seahawks (-4.5, 41.5)
Lions at Cardinals (+3, 51.5)
Ravens at Cowboys (+1, 48)
49ers at Rams (+6.5, 43.5)
Chiefs at Falcons (+3, 46.5)
Monday, Sept. 23
Jaguars at Bills (-5, 45.5)
Commanders at Bengals (-7.5, 47)