A great start to the playoffs for us, as we went 4-2 against the spread, and 5-1 straight up. The Los Angeles Chargers were our one SU loss, as no one expected Justin Herbert to throw four interceptions after throwing just three in the entire regular season. The other ATS loss I had was the Denver Broncos, as I thought they would keep it close with the Bills in Buffalo. I was feeling good when Troy Franklin opened up the game with a touchdown, but alas, those were the only points Denver would score all game.
Divisional round weekend is arguably the best weekend of the NFL season. The wild-card blowouts are in the books, and now we get to figure out which teams are playing their best ball at the right time. Can the Los Angeles Rams score their second straight upset victory over the Philadelphia Eagles? Could Jayden Daniels shock the world against the Detroit Lions? What about the Kansas City Chiefs? Their starters haven't played since Christmas!
As always, credit to the CBS Sports Research team for making me sound smart. Let's jump into some picks.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Playoff ATS record: 4-2
Playoff straight up record: 5-1
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN and fubo, try for free)
The last time the Chiefs took the field in front of their home fans, it was actually against the Texans. In Week 16, Kansas City defeated Houston, 27-19, in a game I felt was altered quite a bit by the unfortunate Tank Dell injury.
This game is about a Patrick Mahomes unit that hasn't played in almost a month going up against a defense that just became the first since the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV to allow a sub-45% completion percentage while recording four interceptions and four sacks in a playoff game. I know the Chargers aren't some offensive powerhouse, but for the Texans to hold this rushing offense to 50 yards and make Herbert look that bad was pretty eye-opening ... especially with how the game was going early on.
The storyline surrounding the Chiefs is their pursuit of the NFL's first-ever three-peat. This offense was statistically middle of the pack, but I think they proved last year they can hit a different gear once the postseason rolls around. The Texans are 0-5 all time in the divisional round and 0-5 all time on the road in the postseason. I have the Chiefs winning this game. HOWEVER, the Chiefs are not a good team to bet on when it comes to covering the spread. Kansas City is 0-6-1 ATS this season when favored by six or more points. Give me Houston to cover.
The pick: Texans +8.5
Projected score: Chiefs 23-17
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)
What Jayden Daniels has done for Washington is arguably the story of the year in the NFL. Our friends in D.C. had to suffer through decades of bad football and a generic name change that people still don't love. Speaking of change, the fans got the ownership overhaul they had been craving, which immediately hit on a franchise quarterback, and are now ready to take off. Could the Commanders pull off the unthinkable on Saturday? After all, Washington is 3-0 vs. Detroit in the playoffs!
It would take too long to list all of Daniels' accomplishments this season, but it's worth bringing up that he's just the fourth rookie quarterback to win a road playoff game, and is the only rookie to throw two touchdowns in a road playoff victory. Keeping pace with the No. 1 scoring offense from the regular season is going to be key, and that's where Terry McLaurin is important. His eight receiving touchdowns since Week 12 are the most in the NFL.
I have a hard time believing the Lions defense is all of a sudden elite just because Alex Anzalone is back. Yes, he's a very important player, but the Lions still have five Week 1 defensive starters on injured reserve, which will match the most Week 1 defensive starters to miss a playoff game by any team since 1970. Still, can Washington outscore Jared Goff and Co.? I don't think so.
The pick: Lions -9.5
Projected score: Lions 30-20
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)
This game is tough for me to pick. On one hand, I want to chalk up the Eagles' offensive performance last week to Jalen Hurts being rusty, but then I look at the Rams and how they dominated the Minnesota Vikings on defense -- plus Sean McVay's squad has won five straight road games!
How good is this Rams defense playing right now? Their starters haven't allowed 10 points in four straight games. That's mind-blowing. Against the Vikings, the Rams tied a playoff record with nine sacks, and they also got some good play from their defensive backs. Ahkello Witherspoon recorded a sack and a forced fumble, and Cobie Durant had a sack plus an interception.
The Eagles racked up 481 yards of total offense against the Rams earlier this year. I don't think that's going to happen again. Give me the points with the Rams.
The pick: Rams +6
Projected score: Eagles 23-20
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
It's the game of the week. The two NFL MVP favorites face off in Buffalo, and it's the road team that's actually favored! If the line closes like this, it would mark the first time since the merger that the Bills were underdogs in a home playoff game.
One of the more underrated storylines from Wild Card Weekend was the Bills' offensive performance vs. the Broncos. Not only did they completely dominate time of possession, but they relied on the run in the first half with 126 rushing yards, then Josh Allen came out throwing in the second half -- accounting for 203 of his eventual 272 passing yards, and both of his passing touchdowns in the final two quarters. The Bills' efficient, multifaceted offense really stood out, but it wasn't a major headline because the game itself wasn't close. The same can be said for the Ravens, as they rushed their way past the Pittsburgh Steelers. In fact, the Ravens had the third-best rushing yards differential in a playoff game all time (+270).
I'm sure Allen and Lamar Jackson are going to put on a show, so this game is going to come down to which defense plays better. Baltimore's defense struggled at times this year, but have you noticed how well this unit has played recently? Week 11 was the turning point. Since then, the Ravens defense ranks No. 1 in scoring defense, total defense and third-down defense. Previously, they ranked 25th or worse in each category. That's going to be the difference. Ravens win in Buffalo.
The pick: Ravens -1
Projected score: Ravens 27-24
