As we head into the final week of the NFL season, there's going to be a lot of drama and that's because there are still two playoff spots and three divisions up for grabs.
The NFC South, NFC North and AFC North will all be decided this weekend. The final wild-card spot in the AFC is also on the line with the Broncos, Bengals and Dolphins all trying to claim it.
So how is the playoff picture going to shake out? That's where our projections come in.
These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
Actually, before we get to the projections, let's take a quick look at the spots that have already been clinched:
AFC
Clinched division and playoff spot: Chiefs (No. 1 seed), Bills (No. 2 seed), Texans (No. 4 seed)
Clinched playoff spot: Steelers, Ravens, Chargers
NFC
Clinched division and playoff spot: Eagles (No. 2 seed), Rams (No. 3 or 4 seed)
Clinched playoff spot: Lions, Vikings, Packers, Commanders
Let's get to the projections heading into Week 17.
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC West champion) |  |
| The Chiefs (15-1) have already clinched the top seed, so the only thing you need to know here is that the computer views them as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. According to our projection, the Chiefs have a 20.2% chance of winning it all, which is well ahead of the Bills, who are the next best team at 15.2%. Remaining opponents: at Broncos | |
| 2. (AFC East champion) |  |
| The Bills (13-3) are locked into the No. 2 seed, but they don't know who they'll be facing in the wild-card round. Buffalo could end up hosting Denver, Miami or Cincinnati. Remaining opponents: at Patriots | |
| 3. (AFC North champion) |  |
| To clinch the AFC North, all Baltimore (11-5) has to do is beat the Browns and the computer strongly believes that Baltimore will beat the Browns. Remaining opponents: vs. Browns | |
| 4. (AFC South champion) |  |
| Although the Texans (9-7) have already clinched the AFC South, the computer doesn't think they have any chance of winning the Super Bowl. According to our projection, the Texans have just a 1.9% chance to win the Super Bowl, which is the sixth-lowest in the AFC. Remaining opponents: at Titans | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 |  |
| The only way the Chargers (10-5) can finish as the No. 5 seed is if the Steelers lose on Saturday to the Bengals and then they follow that up on Sunday with a win over the Raiders. The computer believes that's how Week 18 will shake out. Remaining opponents: at Raiders | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 |  |
| If the Steelers (10-5) lose to the Bengals on Saturday night, there's a good chance they'll be staring at a third meeting with the Ravens, which would come in Baltimore during Super Wild Card Weekend. Right now, that's what the computer is projecting, and it might not be the worst thing for the Steelers, who have already beaten the Ravens this year. Remaining opponents: vs. Bengals | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 |  |
| The Broncos' loss to the Bengals in Week 17 has opened the door for the Dolphins or Bengals to steal the final wild-card spot in the AFC. However, the computer does NOT think that's going to happen. For the Broncos to get this spot, all they have to do is beat a Chiefs team that will be resting its starters and the computer is expecting Denver to do that. Remaining opponents: vs. Chiefs | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Dolphins (19.1%), Bengals (8.4%), Colts (Eliminated), Titans (Eliminated), Browns (Eliminated), Jets (Eliminated), Jaguars (Eliminated), Patriots (Eliminated), Raiders (Eliminated)
AFC wild-card bracket projection
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Steelers at (3) Ravens
(5) Chargers at (4) Texans
Bye: (1) Chiefs
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC North champion) |  |
| The computer is projecting the Lions will win the NFC North and get the top seed, and we'll find out soon how smart the computer is because everything will be decided on the field on Sunday night when the Lions (14-2) host the Vikings in the final game of the NFL regular season. Remaining opponents: vs. Vikings | |
| 2. (NFC East champion) |  |
| The Eagles (13-3) have already clinched the No. 2 seed in the NFC, so the only question this week is whether they'll let Saquon Barkley try to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. Unfortunately, we can't answer that question because our computer only makes playoff projections. Remaining opponents: vs. Giants | |
| 3. (NFC South champion) |  |
| The Buccaneers (9-7) can jump up to the No, 3 if they beat the Saints on Sunday and the Rams lose to the Seahawks, which is how we see the NFC playing out. Remaining opponent: vs. Saints | |
| 4. (NFC West champion) |  |
| After clinching the division in Week 17, the Rams (10-6) don't seem to care whether they get the third seed or fourth seed. Rams coach Sean McVay hinted that he would probably bench several key players this week, so it won't be surprising if the Rams lose and end up as the fourth seed. Remaining opponents: vs. Seahawks | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 |  |
| If the Vikings (14-2) lose on Sunday, that would put them in the fifth spot, which means that despite their 14-3 record, they'd still have to open the postseason on the road. Even worse, they'd be opening on the road against a team they already lost to this season (Rams), according to our projection. Remaining opponents: at Lions | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 |  |
| To clinch the sixth seed, the Commanders (11-5) just have to beat the hapless Cowboys and that's exactly what the computer is predicting for Week 18. Remaining opponents: at Cowboys | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 |  |
| The Packers (11-5) will need some help if they want to move up to the sixth seed this week and the computer doesn't think that help will be coming. Remaining opponents: vs. Bears | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Falcons (13.9%), Seahawks (Eliminated), Cardinals (Eliminated), Cowboys (Eliminated), 49ers (Eliminated), Saints (Eliminated), Panthers (Eliminated), Bears (Eliminated), Giants (Eliminated)
NFC wild-card bracket projection
(7) Packers at (2) Eagles
(6) Commanders at (3) Buccaneers
(5) Vikings at (4) Rams
Bye: (1) Lions
