Sunday afternoon's wild card round showdown between the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers (11-6) and the second-seeded, NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) has a chance to be the most exciting matchup of the NFL postseason's opening round.
These two teams played a track meet down in Brazil back in Week 1, a game the Eagles survived with a 34-29 victory. Both appeared to be evenly matched at the start of the season, and there's a case to be made that it's still the case entering the postseason. Both squads' starting quarterbacks -- Packers starting QB Jordan Love (elbow) and Eagles starting QB Jalen Hurts (head) -- suffered late season injuries, but they will both be suiting up on Sunday afternoon. Both have two of the best running backs in football after signing them in free agency -- Eagles NFL rushing champion Saquon Barkley and Packers Pro Bowler Josh Jacobs. Both have top 10 scoring defenses -- the Packers are the NFL's sixth-ranked scoring defense (19.9 points per game allowed) and the Eagles are the NFL's second-ranked scoring defense (17.8 points per game allowed).
With a game this evenly matched, it's quite possible the Packers could pull a rabbit out of their hat and win on the road in an incredibly hostile Lincoln Financial Field. Seventh seeds are only 1-7 in the opening round of the playoffs since the field expanded to include them in 2020, but the one win was this Packers team's 48-32 victory over the second-seed Dallas Cowboys last postseason. That was a game Green Bay, the NFL's youngest team in 2023, jumped out to a 27-0 lead. The Packers remain the NFL's youngest team in 2024, but here's how they can get a victory at the NFC's second-seeded, NFC East champion for the second year in a row.
Eagles vs. Packers where to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 12 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
Channel: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Sports betting odds: Eagles -5, O/U 45.5
3. Jordan Love, head coach Matt LaFleur take advantage of Eagles aggression with heavy dose of play-action
Play-action has long been a staple of the Shanahan offense, but disciple and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur's 2024 Green Bay offense has had a departure in that department. It's been run on just 13.7% of Green Bay's offensive plays this season, which ranks 19th in the NFL. A season ago, its 15.3% rate was the ninth-highest in the NFL. Only 46.8% of their under center snaps in 2024 are play-action, tied for the ninth-lowest rate in the league. Since Jordan Love became the Packers starting quarterback in 2023, his 113.6 passer rating on play-action is the seventh-best in the entire league while his yards per pass attempt of 10.1 on play-action throws is the 10th-best in the league in that span. His 21.3% explosive pass rate on play-action passes since 2023 is the 11th-best in the NFL.
Back in Week 1, the Eagles blitzed Love on 32.4% of his dropbacks, which was Philadelphia's third-highest blitz rate against any team this season. That day, Love wasn't sacked against their blitz and completed 6 of his 12 passes for 38 yards and a touchdown. Using play-action against a game plan that aggressive could pay dividends for Green Bay. Even when they don't blitz, the Eagles do have one of the best defensive fronts with ex-Georgia Bulldog maulers Jordan Davis (6'6, 336 pounds) and Jalen Carter (6'3, 314 pounds) in the middle. However, Packers left guard Elgton Jenkins earned the NFL's best Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade (83.1) among guards this season, and Green Bay right tackle Zach Tom registered PFF's fourth-best PFF offensive grade (87.6) among offensive tackles this season. They can mitigate the Eagles defensive front's impact.
Regularly targeting wide receiver Jayden Reed out of the slot could also be something the Packers could exploit: Love completed three of five throws to Reed out of the slot for 129 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Eagles. It is worth noting slot corner Avonte Maddox out-snapped rookie second-round pick Cooper DeJean 52-5 in Week 1, and DeJean has taken control at that spot now.
2. Josh Jacobs, Green Bay playing turnover-free football allows underdog to win time of possession battle
What's the best way to stop an explosive Eagles offense with two Pro Bowl-caliber receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith plus NFL rushing champion running back Saquon Barkley? Play a clean game and keep them off the field. Love has fixed his ball security issues, having gone seven consecutive starts without a pick --- the longest active streak in the league by a quarterback. Another key to staying on the field is by having a strong running game, something the Packers have with Josh Jacobs. His 1,336 rushing yards are the sixth-most in the NFL, and his 15 rushing touchdowns are the fourth-most in the league.
His eight-game touchdown streak is the longest active streak in the NFL, and it's tied for the longest such streak in Packers history, including the postseason, along All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams in 2020. Jacobs can bludgeon a defense early, which could allow Love and his receivers to create explosive play in the second half of games.
1. Packers opportunistic defense led by Xavier McKinney, Edgerrin Cooper force turnovers, don't break vs. Saquon Barkley
This season, the Packers forced 31 takeaways, the fourth most in the entire NFL. Safety Xavier McKinney, who earned a 2024 first-team All-Pro nod in his first season in Green Bay, co-led the NFL with nine takeaways this season, eight interceptions and one fumble recovery. He's always lurking, waiting to pounce for a takeaway.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts averaged an NFL-best 9.9 yards per pass attempt against man coverage this season, but that number dropped to 7.6 yards per pass attempt when facing zone coverage for a below-average rank of 19th. The Packers have run zone on 75.7% of their defensive snaps this season, the eighth-highest rate in the league, and their passer rating when using zone of 87.4 was the 13th-lowest allowed in the league in 2024. Green Bay also generated quarterback pressure on 33.1% of opponents' dropbacks against zone, the 13th-best rate in the NFL. If the Packers can get home against Hurts or just force him to hold the football longer and have to process a lot in zone coverage after not playing in a game for three weeks because of a concussion, McKinney and Co. could make some plays with the ball in the air.
Hurts also loves to scramble on third down: his 13.3% scramble rate on third down dropbacks was the highest in the NFL this season. He did that because it worked well: he converted his 17 third down scrambles into 12 first down runs. However, Green Bay now has increased athleticism at their inside linebacker spot with Packers second-round rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. He is is PFF's fourth-highest graded linebacker in the entire NFL this season (84.0 PFF defensive grade), but the Eagles only saw him for 10 defensive snaps in their Week 1 matchup. Despite not receiving consistent play time, at least 30 defensive snaps a game, until Week 6, he finished 2024 with 12 tackles for loss -- 19th in the entire league.
The same goes for Packers fourth-round rookie safety Evan Williams, who didn't receive regular play time until Week 5. Green Bay was 5-1 in his six starts and a perfect 7-0 when he played at least 30 defensive, per TruMedia. They also won all 10 of his games in which he registered at least one tackle. With those two youngsters providing more of thump for the Packers defense, Green Bay finished the year as the NFL's seventh-ranked run defense (99.4 rushing yards per game allowed).
A heavier dose of play-action, winning the time of possession battle and a more explosive Packers defense capitalizing on a version of Hurts that hasn't played football in three weeks because of a concussion are their three keys to victory. Hitting all of those marks could result in Green Bay becoming the third team ever to win on the road in the Wild Card round in consecutive seasons, joining the 2008-2010 Baltimore Ravens and the 2009-2010 New York Jets, per CBS Sports Research.