AFC Wild Card Playoffs - Buffalo Bills v Jacksonville Jaguars
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I don't want to say that the NFL should cancel the rest of the postseason, but the league might want to give it some serious thought because there's no way anything is going to top what happened on Wild Card Weekend. 

The Panthers almost pulled off a total shocker, the Bears pulled off a miracle comeback, the Jaguars got Josh Allen'd, the 49ers pulled off the biggest upset of the round and the Chargers tried. At least I think they tried. Once the Chargers get into the playoffs, it's hard to tell what they're doing. Same with the Steelers. 

Now, we're moving on to the divisional round where things tend to be much more predictable, but since there's been nothing predictable about this entire season, I'm going to go ahead and assume that all four games are going to be totally unpredictable.  

Normally, the key to picking games in the divisional round is to not overthink it, which could be a problem for me because I overthink everything. I mean, I just told you that the divisional round is usually predictable, but then also said that nothing predictable has happened this season, so the divisional round will probably be unpredictable and the most unpredictable possibility in an unpredictable season would be for something predictable to happen. No one would predict that. I told you, I overthink everything. 

The reason you don't want to overthink things in the divisional round is because the home team usually dominates. Over the past 11 years, home teams have gone 32-12, which basically means we're getting an average of roughly one upset per year, so I'm going to go ahead and plan to pick one upset. Maybe two. Who knows. 

Also, teams favored by a touchdown or more in the divisional round have gone 20-4 straight up since the 2014 season, which would seem to favor the Seahawks, who are favored by seven points. 

So am I going to automatically pick every road team to lose? Am I actually going to pick one upset? Are the Seahawks a lock to win? Does any of this mean anything? Let's get to the picks and find out. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

NFL divisional round picks

(6) San Francisco (13-5) at (1) Seattle (14-3)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, try for free)

Well, here we go again. For the third time this season, the Seahawks and 49ers are facing each other. They opened the year with a game in Week 1, they closed the year against each other in Week 18, and now, they'll play one more time with a trip to the NFC title game on the line. 

Let's check out the scores from the previous two games: 

  • Week 1: 49ers 17-13 over Seahawks
  • Week 18: Seahawks 13-3 over 49ers

There were only two games all year where the 49ers defense held a team with a winning record to 13 points or less and both of those came against Seattle. The 49ers defense tends to struggle, unless they're facing the Seahawks.  

If the Seahawks have one advantage going into the game, it's the fact that the 49ers are already complaining about the schedule. If you're complaining, you've already lost, even if you have a legitimate gripe. The Niners had to play on Sunday in Philadelphia, and now, they have to turn around and play on a short week in Seattle. This will mark the third time in four games that the 49ers have had to play on a short week. Kyle Shanahan pleaded with the NFL to give his team a Sunday game this week, but the NFL ignored him, and let me just say Kyle, I know that feeling. My 5-year-old ignores me whenever I tell her to clean up her room. 

Now, in Shanahan's defense, if there's one team that could have used an extra day of rest, it's definitely the 49ers. The team has been banged up all year: Their players have combined to miss a total of 263 games due to injury this year, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. Oh, and the injuries continued to pile up during the wild card round with George Kittle tearing his Achilles against the Eagles. 

After the injury happened, Kittle did what anyone in his situation would do: He pounded a bottle of tequila. 

Anyway, the point here is that the 49ers won't have Kittle this week. The 49ers put up just 173 yards against the Seahawks in Week 18 WITH KITTLE and I can't imagine things are going to get much better without him. 

I have a hard time seeing the 49ers light up the scoreboard, so it's going to be on the San Francisco's defense to keep this close. The good news is that they might actually be up to the task. Not only do they get to face a Seahawks' offense that they've held to 13 points per game this year, but they get to face Sam Darnold. 

During the regular season, Darnold struggled against the 49ers: He was held under 200 yards passing in both games and he threw exactly zero touchdown passes. Darnold tends to struggle in big games and I don't expect that to change here. As a matter of fact, I won't be surprised if the Seahawks take the game out of his hands by running the ball 40 times. The Seahawks are not going to let Sam Darnold lose this game for them. 

Seattle ran the ball 39 times against the 49ers back in Week 18 and I fully expect to see a similar game plan on Saturday. 

The Seahawks are healthy, they're going to be rested and they're playing at home. On the other hand, the 49ers are not healthy, they're not going to be rested and they're not playing at home. So I should obviously take Seattle here, right? 

I've mentioned this 17 times this year, so I don't think it will hurt if I mention it again, but the 49ers were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, which makes it very easy for me to talk myself into a 49ers win here. The offense struggled in Week 18, but they didn't have three-time All-Pro Trent Williams, who should be on the field this week. They also could have Ricky Pearsall, who would help Brock Purdy stretch the field. And let's not forget about that fact that Kyle Shanahan has NEVER lost in the divisional round (5-0) and Purdy has never lost in Seattle (4-0).

I almost talked myself into going bang bang Niner gang for the win, but I think the 49ers are too bang banged up to pull it off. 

PICK: Seahawks 19-16 over 49ers
Record picking 49ers games this season: 12-6
Record picking Seahawks games this season: 13-4
Record picking Seahawks-49ers games this season: 1-1

(6) Buffalo (13-5) at (1) Denver (14-3)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

This could definitely go down as the best day ever for people named Sean with Sean McDermott facing Sean Payton for the right to go to the AFC title game. The only way this could get any better is if they played the game on Sean Connery's birthday. And let's not forget, we could still get a Sean vs. Sean Super Bowl if one of these two teams ends up facing Rams' coach Sean McVay. 

Anyway, the last time we saw these two teams on the field together came last January when the Bills destroyed the Broncos, 31-7, in the wild card round. 

  • Have the Broncos gotten better since then? Yes.
  • Have the Bills gotten worse? Yes. 
  • Have the Broncos closed a 24-point gap? I'm not so sure about that. 

I'm guessing that Broncos fans were rooting hard for the Chargers on Sunday night, because if L.A. had won, then Denver would be hosting the Chargers in this game. Instead, the Broncos are getting their worst nightmare, a matchup with a Bills team that is built to beat them. 

If you want to beat the Bills, you have to be able to run the ball, but the Broncos haven't really been able to do that this season. They averaged 118.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranked 16th overall in the NFL. That number has been even worse over the past four weeks with the Broncos average just 108.5 yards per game. If you can run on the Bills, you can control the clock and that keeps Josh Allen off the field. If the Broncos can't get their run game going, it could be a long day. All three of Denver's losses this season came in game where they were held under 120 rushing yards. 

If the Broncos can't the run the ball, that will put the game in Bo Nix's hands, and that could be trouble, especially against a Sean McDermott defense. McDermott came up with a game plan last year that Nix struggled against. The Broncos QB went 3 of 3 for 64 yards in the first quarter of last year's playoff game, but then went just 10 of 19 for 80 yards over the final three quarters. That doesn't mean we'll see the same thing this year, but Nix is a streaky quarterback and it's impossible to predict which version of him will show up on Saturday. We could see the Nix who threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns in a huge December win over the Packers or we could see the Nix who threw for just 182 yards in a nail-biting Christmas Day win over a Chiefs team that didn't have Patrick Mahomes. 

Nix thrives when he's forced out of the pocket -- he completed a league-high 80 passes from out of the pocket in 2025 -- but he'll be facing a Bills defense that allowed the fewest completions outside the pocket in the NFL this year. 

If the Broncos have one advantage this week, it's the fact that they're coming off a bye while the Bills will be coming off a short week after playing on Sunday in the wild card round. Not only are the Bills on a short week, but they have to deal with the mile high air. It's not an easy adjustment and it's a big reason why the Broncos have won four straight home playoff games. Also, Sean Payton has NEVER lost a playoff game coming off a bye (4-0). He's the new Andy Reid.

The only thing standing between the Broncos and their first AFC title berth in 10 years is Josh Allen, but unfortunately for Denver, that's a big obstacle. In the wild card round, Allen led his first career game-winning drive in the fourth quarter of a playoff game, and now, I'll say he takes one step closer to getting to his first career Super Bowl. 

PICK: Bills 23-20 over Broncos
Record picking Bills games this season: 11-7
Record picking Broncos games this season: 13-4

(5) Texans (13-5) at (2) New England (15-3)

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC; Fubo, try for free)

Houston, we have a problem, and that problem is that the Texans got stuck playing in the dreaded Monday night game during the wild-card round, which has been a nightmare for almost everyone who has ever played in it. Over the past three years, four teams have won on Monday in the wild-card round and they've combined to go 0-4 in the divisional round, which makes it sound like I should stop thinking about this pick right now and just take the Patriots.

The Texans are also the only team in NFL history that has never won a divisional round game. As a matter of fact, if you're a fan of the Texans, you might not even be aware that there are more playoff rounds AFTER the divisional round because Houston has never made it that far.

The Texans have existed since 2002 and since then, they've played in the divisional round a total of six times and they've gone 0-6. Two of those six losses have come against the Patriots, and now, everyone in Houston will be hoping that the third time is the charm. 

This game is going to feature two of the best defenses in the NFL and the more I think about it, the more I think that the final score could end up being 11-8. Mike Vrabel is a defensive genius who came up with such a good game plan against the Chargers that he confused a former NFL quarterback. 

"I have absolutely no idea what coverage they're in" is probably what Justin Herbert was thinking for half the game against the Patriots. The other half of the time, he was probably thinking, "Oh crap, I'm about to get sacked again."

If Vrabel was able to confuse Herbert, there's a good chance he'll be able to confuse C.J. Stroud, who might be the QB I trust the least out of all the quarterbacks still in the playoffs. Stroud fumbled the ball FIVE TIMES against the Steelers on Monday night, which was the most by any player in 31 years. The Texans offense still has yet to top 20 points in any road game this season and I have a hard time seeing that changing against a Patriots defense that gave up just 18.8 points per game during the regular season, which was the fourth-fewest in the NFL. 

Not only is Stroud facing a tough defense, but he might not have Nico Collins on the field. The Texans star receiver might not play after suffering a concussion on Monday night. 

The biggest question in this game is how will Drake Maye react to playing a good defense for the first time this season? Maye has not had to face a top-five defense all season, but that will change in this game. The Texans gave up the fewest yards in the NFL (277.2 yards per game), they gave up the second-fewest points (17.4 per game), they gave up less than 100 yards rushing per game and they're good at stopping the pass. I don't know how it's possible, but they're good at EVERYTHING. 

I give the Texans the edge on defense and I give the Patriots the edge on offense, and well, the old adage doesn't say anything about offenses winning championships, it definitely says that defenses win championships, so I'm going with the better defense. 

PICK: Texans 19-16 over Patriots
Record picking Texans games this season: 12-6
Record picking Patriots games this season: 13-5

L.A. Rams (13-5) at Chicago (12-6)

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

When I see that a team from California is playing a team from the Midwest on the road in January, the first thing I usually do is Google the weather for the game, so I decided to Google Chicago's weather for Sunday, and I have some bad news for the Rams: It's going to be cold.   

The forecast for this week's game is calling for a high of 15 degrees -- with a wind chill possibly below zero -- and you know who's not going to be fazed by that? The Bears. 

On other hand, I'm starting to have a feeling that the weather might end up being a problem for the Rams. If you've ever been to Los Angeles, you may have noticed that people start wearing jackets there when the temperature falls below 65 degrees. And as someone who lived in Southern California for two years, I can tell you from first-hand experience that people in Southern California don't go outside if the temperature drops below 60 degrees. No Californian has ever experienced sub-60 degree weather unless it was by accident. 

As for the game, Sean McVay is arguably the best coach in the NFL right now, but there's one thing he still hasn't done in his career and that's win a game in Chicago. McVay is 0-2 in the Windy City and if he wants to end that streak, he's probably going to need to have his team practice in Antartica this week, because that's the only way he's going to be able to simulate the weather that's expected in Chicago. 

The big question in this game is whether Matthew Stafford is going to be able to throw the ball in arctic conditions. If he can, the Rams could roll to a win, but if he can't, then the Bears might be able to pull off the upset. Not only will Stafford be dealing with the cold weather, but he also sprained a finger on his throwing hand in the wild card round, which could impact his ability to throw the football. After the injury happened, Stafford went 4 of 19 on his next 23 passes, before rebounding to throw for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter against Carolina. 

McVay said Stafford's finger is OK, but I feel like he has to say that.

One thing about Stafford is that he almost never has to play in weather like this. In his 17-year career, he's played in just FOUR games where the temperature was under 30 degrees. In those four games, he went 2-2 and he's averaged 186 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and just one interception. His numbers aren't great, but he could have some success this weekend. 

The Bears defense led the NFL in interceptions this year, but if they weren't picking off a pass, then they were getting picked apart. The Bears gave up the 11th most passing yards in the NFL and the fifth-most touchdown passes, and now, they have to stop the QB who led the NFL in both of those categories. Chicago's defense could certainly get some help from the cold weather, but I could also see Stafford having a big game. 

When you're playing in the cold weather, it helps if you can run the ball well and if the Bears can get their rushing attack going, that could open door for an upset. The Rams are just 1-3 this season when they surrender 140 yards or more on the ground, and as I mention every week, the Bears are undefeated (8-0) when they top 140 rushing yards. 

I hate picking against the Bears, because they seem to find a crazy new way to win every week, but I can't pick against Stafford. 

PICK: Rams 27-20 over Bears
Record picking Rams games this season: 13-5
Record picking Bears games this season: 10-8

Last Week 

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the 49ers would go into Philadelphia and pull off the biggest upset of the wild card round and guess what happened? The 49ers went into Philadelphia and pulled off the biggest upset of the wild card round. Now, did I know that the Eagles were going to forget how to run their offense? Of course, I did. If you watched the Eagles play a single game this year, then you already knew what was going to happen, because every game is the same: The Eagles will run one or two big plays and then Kevin Patullo calls 10 straight plays that make no sense. The Eagles offense is essentially a Ferrari with my grandma driving, but also, it has one flat tire. If they get the tire fixed and get a new driver in there, they should be OK, but who knows if that will actually happen. 

The 49ers ended up winning 23-19, which I'm only pointing out, because we came ONE POINT AWAY from a Breechigami. That is where I predict the exact score of a game and if Jake Elliott didn't miss an extra point on Sunday, we would have had our first Breechigami of the year and I would have celebrated by taking down a George Kittle-sized bottle of tequila. 

Worst pick: Last week, I decided that this would finally be the year that the Chargers would stop Chargering in the playoffs, but the joke's on me, because that definitely didn't happen. Anyone who has ever watched the Chargers play a single game in the postseason knew there was a 500% chance they were going to lose, but I picked them to win anyway. Justin Herbert is now 0-3 in the playoffs in his career, which means he is now officially entering Andy Dalton territory. Herbert is one of just four quarterbacks since 2000 to lose each of his first three playoff starts, a list that he is on with Dalton. In a fitting twist, Dalton, who is Carolina's backup QB, also lost during the wild card round. 

Picks record

Straight up in wild-card round: 3-3
SU overall in playoffs: 3-3
Against the spread in wild-card round: 2-4
ATS overall in playoffs: 2-4

Final 2025 regular season record
Straight up: 166-105-1
Against the spread: 129-140-3

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably hitting up local liquor stores to see if he can find a George Kittle-sized bottle of tequila.