2026 NFL win totals are here, and we're comparing all 32 projected team schedules to find early value

The NFL is settling into offseason mode after the Seahawks were crowned Super Bowl champions earlier in February. The day after Seattle's win, we broke down Super Bowl 61 odds and ranked all 32 teams by best value despite much left to be determined by what happens during free agency, the NFL Draft and the rest of the offseason. Even with that ambiguity, DraftKings has released its initial 2026 NFL win totals, giving us another chance to preview an NFL season that is less than seven months away from kicking off.

But we're not going just to share the win totals for all 32 NFL teams. Even without knowing the 2026 NFL schedule, we do know every single regular-season matchup on tap for next season. That allows us to list the matchups for every team and get a sense of where potential value may lie in the 2026 NFL win totals, some of which will move dramatically once player movement begins and bettors start taking positions in the market.

Let's start with the AFC East. All odds are via DraftKings.

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2026 AFC East win totals

2026 AFC East common opponents: AFC West, NFC North

Much was made of the Patriots' 2025 schedule playing a big role in their lofty record and trip to the Super Bowl. While their schedule looks easier than Buffalo's due to facing the Steelers instead of the Ravens, both teams have to face two of the three toughest divisions in football as their common opponents, meaning there won't be many easy wins for either outside of potentially all four games against the Jets and Dolphins. Early lean to the Unders for both teams, though I would much prefer backing Bills Under 10.5 at plus odds.

As for the other two AFC East teams, the Jets are already heavily juiced to Under 5.5 wins, and unless they hit a home run in free agency, I'd expect their win total to come down to 4.5 by the time we get to the summer. The Dolphins have a much tougher set of uncommon opponents, and even getting to face each other it wouldn't be surprising if the league's worst record (and 2027 No. 1 overall pick) came from this pair of teams. Definitely lean to Under 5.5 for the Jets.

2026 AFC North win totals

2026 AFC North common opponents: AFC South, NFC South

The AFC North brought much disappointment in 2025 between the Ravens and Bengals, and three of the division's four teams changed head coaches in January, ending the long tenures of John Harbaugh in Baltimore and Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh. The good news is that they'll get to face the NFC South, and though the AFC South is stronger than it has been in year's past, there should be opportunity to pick up wins for competitive AFC North teams.

The early value on the Overs look to be on the team with continuity at head coach in the Bengals, who have a great shot at getting to 10 wins with a schedule that features matchups with the Dolphins and the Commanders, though getting the privilege of facing the Chiefs with a third-place schedule is a tough development. Hopefully that matchup will come early on before Patrick Mahomes is 100%. The Steelers are another interesting Over look for those who think the Patriots and Broncos take a step back.

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2026 AFC South win totals

2026 AFC South common opponents: AFC North, NFC East

Long considered a punching bag, the AFC South provided two of the best teams in the AFC in 2025 along with another that looked like it might be the best team in the league during the first half in the Indianapolis Colts. Perhaps some of that previous pessimism continues to seep in with no 10-win projections despite a schedule that includes two divisions that sent just one team each to the playoffs in 2025.

You can make an argument to take any of these Overs, but the one that sticks out to me the most is only needing nine wins on plus odds with a Colts team that gets the Titans (twice), Dolphins, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Giants, Commanders and Cowboys on the schedule. Those aren't nine guaranteed wins by any means, but if the Colts team that showed up in the first half last year is lurking, they should compete no matter the opponent and have a great shot at getting to 10 wins. I also think even odds on the Jaguars Over is a good lean, and I expect the Titans number could rise quickly with a good offseason.

2026 AFC West win totals

2026 AFC West common opponents: AFC East, NFC West

There's going to be a lot of optimism with this division during the offseason. The Chargers are expected to make a leap with a healthier offensive line, the Chiefs should return to form, the Broncos come off a No. 1 seed and the Raiders are rebuilding around a top-tier offensive mind at coach and the projected No. 1 overall pick, Francisco Mendoza. But starting the schedule by facing each other six times and then adding in matchups with the Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bills and Patriots means any tough breaks in terms of injury or even unlucky bounces of the ball could cause things to snowball quickly for any of these teams.

I'm all over Raiders Under 5.5 wins, as two of their "easy" opponents will be faced on the road with the Browns and Jets, and depending on when those games are scheduled it could be tough sledding for an indoors team from the desert. Getting wins against the rest of the schedule will be even harder with the state of the roster, assuming they can't completely remake it in the offseason. Of the three contenders, I'd be most willing to play the Under on the Chargers even at -130.

2026 NFC East win totals

2026 NFC East common opponents: NFC West, AFC South

The NFC East may collectively be dealing with the toughest schedule among the eight divisions next year, but six of the other seven divisions have at least one team with a win total of 6.5 or lower. That speaks to the expectations for a Commanders rebound, a quick turn to respectability for John Harbaugh in New York and a continuation of the solid job Brian Schottenheimer did with Dallas in Year 1.

I'll be looking largely to the Unders in this division, although the Eagles get the benefit of facing perhaps the three most surprising division winners of last year, and are all expected to take a step back. That makes them a shoo-in to back in divisional odds markets where they can be found near even odds, and I would also look to their Over at plus odds. The Cowboys seem like the best fade with potential defensive issues against a tough schedule that includes three uncommon opponents that will be popular divisional winner picks, and the Commanders look like a nice Under value as well.

2026 NFC North win totals

2026 NFC North common opponents: NFC South, AFC East

Just like the NFC East had perhaps the toughest slate of opponents, the NFC North might have it the easiest despite every team having to match up with the Bills and Patriots. That's because there are plenty of question marks over the rest of the two divisions, and when combined with an easier slate of uncommon opponents for certain teams, the toughest test for most of the NFC North will likely come from divisional rivals.

The Lions in particular have a great shot at earning the No. 1 seed if they can enjoy a bit more health in 2026 while addressing some of the issues on the offensive line. Even though they have one of the highest win totals on the board at a juiced -130 on Over 10.5, that's the best lean for the division as they should be favored in 13-14 games this year. The Vikings are an interesting value at +115 on the Over under the assumption they'll do something to fix the QB position in the offseason, as they won nine games even with the poor state of it last season.

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2026 NFC South win totals

2026 NFC South common opponents: NFC North, AFC North

Even with the AFC North in a state of flux, things won't be easy for NFC South teams in 2026 as Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh should all be competitive and the NFC North is among the toughest divisions in football. That explains why the NFC South has the lowest total number of wins combined at 29, one behind the AFC East, though three teams in this division are juiced to the Over.

You can argue for any of these Unders, and even though the Panthers just won the division, I'm drawn to their Under at 6.5. They played like a 6.5-win team in terms of point differential this past year, and now their schedule includes both No. 1 seeds and a perennial contender in the Eagles among their uncommon opponents. The Panthers might need five divisional wins to get to a 7-10 record next year. The Bucs are also a strong fade at plus odds having to go up against both L.A. teams, while the path at least looks more manageable for the Saints getting to face the Raiders, cardinals and Giants, making them the one Over consideration in the division.

2026 NFC West win totals

2026 NFC West common opponents: NFC East, AFC West

A division with the two best teams from last year and another perennial playoff contender means we get 30% of the opening double-digit win totals in the NFC West, where teams will have to face another strong division in the AFC West. The NFC East could be an opportunity to pick up some wins for the better teams in this division, especially if the Eagles aren't the powerhouse we've come to expect.

The Seahawks get a relatively light set of divisional winners among their uncommon opponents with NFC upstarts in the Bears and Panthers on the schedule, along with a Super Bowl rematch. That seems to be a better Over value than a Rams schedule that includes games against the Bills and Packers, albeit both coming at home. Perhaps the best Over value of all is with the 49ers, with winnable games against the Dolphins, Vikings and Falcons on the schedule.

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