The sky is once again falling in Pittsburgh.
After a 10-3 start, the Steelers backed into the playoffs after losing their final four regular-season games. Russell Wilson and the Steelers' offense is ice cold, while Mike Tomlin's coaching seat -- at least in the case of many fans -- is getting hot. To many, it seems like a foregone conclusion that this season will once again end with a disappointing loss in the first round of the playoffs.
Yet if you've learned anything about Tomlin during his 18 years in Pittsburgh, it's to expect the unexpected.
Take last year, when the Steelers were 7-7 after a dreadful three-game losing streak that included the firing of then-offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Everyone was calling for Tomlin's job at that point, as it appeared that he was on the brink of his first losing season. But Tomlin's Steelers rebounded with an unexpected three-game winning streak that allowed them to clinch the AFC's final playoff spot.
There are numerous other examples of Tomlin's teams doing the unexpected, whether that's good or bad. Given the current atmosphere and narrative surrounding him, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if Tomlin defies gravity once again while leading Pittsburgh past Baltimore in Saturday's AFC wild-card round showdown.
There are a few other reasons why I like the Steelers to pull off the upset. Here's the three biggest reasons why Pittsburgh will get its first postseason win since January of 2017, against its archrival favored by -9.5 points, no less.
1. Playoff Lamar
Lamar Jackson, in my book, is already a certified future Hall of Famer whose career is unlike any we have seen before. His combination of accurate passing and All-Pro-level running has made him one one the most productive, exciting and dangerous players in NFL history.
Jackson could very well win his third MVP award this year after having his best season to date. He threw 41 touchdowns (becoming one of 13 players ever to do) with just four picks. He also ran for 915 yards while averaging a league-high 6.6 yards per carry.
Jackson has had two Achilles heels, though: the Steelers and the playoffs. Jackson owns 2-4 records in both the postseason as well as against Pittsburgh. Jackson went 1-1 against the Steelers during the 2024 regular season that included his three-touchdown performance in Baltimore's 34-17 win in Week 16. That game did include a bad interception to Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick that could have been costly.
Five weeks earlier, Jackson had what was easily his worst game of the season in Pittsburgh. He failed to complete 50% of his throws and had a costly interception in the fourth quarter of Baltimore's 18-16 loss. Jackson's one touchdown pass that day was thrown to Zay Flowers, the Ravens' No. 1 wideout who will miss Saturday's game after injuring his knee in Week 18.
It may not be the "Jordan Rules," but the Steelers do have a blueprint for containing Jackson.
"For the back end, just plaster your guy," Steelers rookie cornerback Beanie Bishop Jr. told CBS Sports following Pittsburgh's Week 11 win over Baltimore. "It's kind of like playing street ball. Guys are moving around trying to get open, not really having too many routes, obviously, because he's scrambling. For the rush guys, keep him in front of you, and inside you're going to have help and other guys coming."
As he displayed in Week 16, Jackson is more than capable of playing at his usual form against the Steelers (it should be noted that Pittsburgh was without multiple starters in that game, including in the secondary). But until he does that on a consistent basis, it's hard to pick against the Steelers in these matchups. Jackson has a tendency to try to do too much in big games, and that tendency could result in another early playoff exit.
2. Harris-Warren 1-2 punch
Baltimore was tops in the league in run defense during the regular season. For some reason, though, the unit continues to struggle to contain Pittsburgh's duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. If that continues on Saturday, that could lead to an upset win for Pittsburgh, which is hellbent on running the ball and winning the battle in the trenches.
That fact was on display in Week 18, when the Steelers ran on 12 consecutive first-down plays against the Bengals. When asked afterward about his offense's lack of creativity, Tomlin said that the Steelers were focused on asserting themselves on the ground. That'll be the case again on Saturday night, although I would expect Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to open things up a little more than he did against the Bengals.
Harris ran 27 times for 105 yards in Pittsburgh's two regular-season games against Baltimore. He also caught four passes for 30 yards in the Steelers' Week 11 win over the Ravens. Warren had 21 carries for 89 yards against the Ravens. He was also extremely productive as a receiver with 71 yards on nine catches.
All told, the duo combined to amass 305 all-purpose yards against Baltimore during the regular season. While they could have gotten a few more explosive plays on the ground, Harris and Warren's contributions were good enough to give the Steelers a chance to win both games.
I'm specifically interested to see how Harris performs in what could be his final game in a Steelers uniform. The Steelers didn't pick up his fifth-year option, so Harris could be free to test the market when free agency begins in March. That makes this postseason even more vital for Harris, who is surely hoping to bolster his market value heading into his first free agency.
Harris has a successful history against the Ravens, especially in Baltimore. He's had 100-yard rushing performances in Baltimore each of the last two years, and he recorded the game-winning touchdown catch in Pittsburgh's late-season win in Baltimore back in 2022.
3. Russ ready to cook
While Harris has a lot to play for, Pittsburgh's quarterback certainly does, too. A month ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Steelers would try to sign Russell Wilson to a multiyear deal this offseason. But after a 6-1 start as Pittsburgh's starting quarterback, Wilson could finish the year with an even 6-6 record as the Steelers' starter if they lose to Baltimore. Wilson's spotty play during the past month has led to questions regarding his future in Pittsburgh.
There's still a good chance that Wilson signs with the Steelers this offseason, but he can significantly increase the odds of that happening with a win on Saturday night. It wouldn't be a Super Bowl win, but leading Pittsburgh to its first playoff win of the post-Ben Roethlisberger era would be a nice feather on Wilson's cap.
Can Wilson do it? The short answer is yes, Wilson is capable of leading the Steelers to a win over Baltimore. The main question is whether or not his supporting cast can help him get the job done.
We've already touched on the running backs, who should be able to do their part. The offensive line is a question, though, as the unit hasn't improved the way Pittsburgh had surely hoped it would as the season progressed. The unit was hit with another obstacle after rookie guard Mason McCormick broke his hand in Week 18. McCormick is hoping to play through the injury.
Wilson's secondary receivers played well in Pittsburgh's most recent game with Baltimore. Calvin Austin III caught four passes for 65 yards that included a 44-yard reception. Van Jefferson had a 21-yard catch, while Mike Williams made his presence felt with three grabs. Williams and Jefferson, though, need to make more of an impact in the playoffs, especially if George Pickens continues to struggle.
Let's be clear on something: The Steelers aren't beating the Ravens if Pickens doesn't return to his pre-injury form. Prior to missing three games late in the year with a hamstring issue, Pickens was having his best season so far. He caught a season-high eight passes for 89 yards against the Ravens in Week 11. But he was virtually nonexistent against the Bengals, catching one pass for zero yards. Making matters, worse, Pickens had to be restrained by teammate Pat Freiermuth after exchanging words with fans.
Given their success in Week 16, it's conceivable to think that the Steelers' passing game is capable of rolling, especially if Pickens plays like a No. 1 receiver. It'll be up to Wilson to get the ball to his playmakers while avoiding Baltimore's pass rush. He'll need to make quick decisions while taking care of the ball, which was an issue the last time the Steelers played in Baltimore.
One of the reasons why the Steelers signed Wilson was for games like this. The Steelers are tired of not winning in the playoffs, and they were hoping a player with Wilson's experience could help break their drought without a postseason win. While the last month hasn't gone the way they had hoped, all will be forgotten if Wilson can lead the Steelers to win on Saturday night. I believe he can.