AFC South playoff race, scenarios, odds: Jaguars favored, but can Texans or Colts make a run?

As we head into the home stretch of the season, things are looking as tight as ever before in the NFL playoff races. We're currently in the midst of arguably the most closely contested division races in recent NFL history, for example, with five of the eight divisions having first and second place separated by one game or fewer and all eight being separated by two games or fewer, with just four games to go in the regular season.

One of the closest division races is that of the AFC South, where we have one team at 9-4 (the Jaguars) and two teams right behind them at 8-5 (the Texans and Colts). Because things are so tight, we wanted to take this opportunity to give you the lay of the land. We'll show you the standings, the tiebreakers, the odds, the remaining schedules and also the wild card picture as these teams look to lay their claim to a postseason spot while they navigate these next four weeks.

Current AFC South standings, tiebreakers, odds projections

The Jaguars own the first seed at the moment because they're a game ahead of both the Texans and the Colts. Should they end up tied with the same record, though, the other tiebreakers come into play.

As we turn our attention to Week 15, the stage only gets brighter and the road to January, for many teams, officially begins now and CBS will be airing over a handful of games with playoff implications. 

Right now, the first tiebreaker between Jacksonville and Houston would be tied. They're 1-1 against each other and each 1-0 against the Colts. The Colts, meanwhile, are 0-2 combined against the other two teams. If only one of the Jags and Texans wins their remaining game against Indianapolis, that team would have the tiebreaker edge. If both win or both lose, we would move to the second tiebreaker, which is division record. The Colts need to win both of those games in order to force their way into the division record tiebreaker.

The Texans have the division tiebreaker at the moment because they have played an extra game against the Titans compared with the Jaguars. Jacksonville gets Tennessee in the final week of the season. If both teams finish 5-1 or 4-2 in the division, we'd move to the third tiebreaker, which is record against common opponents. 

Over at DraftKings, the Jaguars are -165 to win the division, while the Texans are +150 and the Colts are +2200. And as of this writing, our friends at Sportsline give the Jaguars a 47% chance to win the division, while the Texans have a 34% chance and the Colts are down at 17%. 

All Jacksonville needs to do to win the division title is win the same number of games as Houston does the rest of the way. If the Jags do that, they'll remain ahead by one game in the division race and avoid any tiebreaker scenarios.

Houston needs to win at least one more game than Jacksonville. If the Texans win two more games than the Jags, they can take the division outright. If they win one more, that will trigger the tiebreaker scenarios and we could get into things like record against common opponents.

Indianapolis also needs to win at least one more game than Jacksonville, but also needs to beat both the Jaguars and Texans along the way because otherwise it will lose the head-to-head tiebreaker and fall into contention for a wild card spot. The Colts would then need to win the common opponents tiebreaker to claim the division crown.

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Remaining schedule for Jaguars, Texans, Colts

Unfortunately for the Colts, who just lost their starting quarterback, they have the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the league. Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .692, which is the equivalent of an 11.8-win team. They have to be considered extreme long shots here. 

Jacksonville has a slightly tougher remaining strength of schedule (.462, 23rd in the NFL) than does Houston (.423, 27th). This is because while both teams face the 8-5 Colts, plus one team that is 2-11 and another that is 3-10, the Jaguars' fourth game is against the 11-2 Broncos while the Texans' fourth game is against the 9-4 Chargers. 

The Jags can afford to drop a game and still move into a tie with the Texans, but they'd be triggering the tiebreaker scenarios described above. And things could get complicated if they wind up with the same record and same division record as Houston.

Can any team claim a wild card bid?

It sure looks like there's going to be room for one of these teams -- and potentially two if the Colts can win some games with their backup quarterback, whether that's Riley Leonard, Brett Rypien or Philip Rivers -- to make a run at a wild card spot. The Texans and Colts currently have two-game leads on the trio of teams that are chasing them for the No. 7 seed, all of whom have 6-7 records. The Jaguars, if they were to drop back, have a three-game lead on those squads. 

SportsLine gives the Texans a 78% chance to make the playoffs despite their division odds sitting at only 34%, which means they're favored to come away with one of those wild card slots. The Jaguars are favored to win the division at 47% but also have an 84% chance to make the playoffs outright, according to Sportsline. The Colts are down at a 46% chance to make the playoffs, per SportsLine.