Agent's Take: Buccaneers have a Baker Mayfield contract decision and QB's subpar season didn't help his cause
Coming off his worst season as a Buccaneer, Mayfield enters his walk year without a new deal in place
Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht indicated at the start of training camp last July that he would look to extend quarterback Baker Mayfield's contract when the time was right. A contract maneuver last April that didn't become public knowledge until the end of last July suggested a new Mayfield deal would be a top offseason priority. This was after a conventional contract restructure at the end of March created $14.4 million of 2025 salary cap room.
Mayfield's unsecured $40 million 2026 base salary was lowered to $10 million and $30 million was shifted into a roster bonus due on the 10th day of the 2026 league year, which is March 20. Out of the $30 million, $13 million was prorated on the salary cap at $2.6 million annually from 2025 through 2029 since it was fully guaranteed when this change was made. The last three years, 2027 through 2029, are fake/dummy years voiding next February on the 23rd day before the 2027 league year starts.
The Buccaneers will lose the ability to prorate the other $17 million of the $30 million roster bonus once the 10th day passes. This $17 million was guaranteed for injury at signing and became fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2026 league year on March 15.
The 2025 season didn't go according to plan for the Buccaneers or Mayfield. The Buccaneers were on track for a fifth straight NFC South crown with a 6-2 record heading into a Week 9 bye. Mayfield was an early-season MVP candidate.
Things went downhill after the bye. The Buccaneers finished the season 2-7 to miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2019 season, with an 8-9 record. Mayfield's play tailed off. A fairly significant injury to his non-throwing left shoulder against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12 can be considered a mitigating factor.
Overall, Mayfield had the worst of his three seasons with the Buccaneers. He had lows in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdown passes and passer rating since becoming a Buccaneer.
A disappointing 2025 season hasn't necessarily put a contract extension on hold. When asked about Mayfield's contract situation last month at the NFL Scouting Combine, Licht replied: "Everything's on the table right now."
"I don't have a timeline for that but our plans revolve around Baker in the future, so I don't think anybody wants to see Baker leave the organization," Licht said. "We know everything we need to know about Baker, being with him for three years, and everything is positive. He's tough as hell, great leader. No timeline, but all plans revolve around Baker."
Mayfield is entering the final year of the three-year, $100 million contract, averaging $33,333,333 per year worth up to $115 million with incentives, he signed in March 2024. His 2026 salary cap number is $39.975 million. Presumably, the change with Mayfield's 2026 compensation was made to accelerate the negotiation timeline.
A new deal would likely already be in place if Mayfield's 2024 season had been in 2025. Mayfield had career highs in completion percentage (71.4), passing yards (4,500), touchdown passes (41) and passer rating (106.8). His NFL ranking in these respective categories during the 2024 season was third, third, second and fourth.
The latest relevant data point in the quarterback market is the two-year, $88 million contract Daniel Jones, who was designated as a transition player for $37.833 million, just signed with the Indianapolis Colts. There are $60 million in guarantees where $50 million is fully guaranteed at signing. Jones got the deal despite the right Achilles tear he sustained in a Week 14 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season.
Jones' deal is worth up to $100 million thanks to $6 million of incentives in each year. He gets $100,000 for each regular-season win in which he takes at least 50% of the offensive snaps. There's $550,000 based on Jones' regular-season playtime and the Colts making the playoffs. Jones has $100,000 each at the 50%, 60%, 70% and 80% thresholds with an additional $150,000 at 90%. Another $750,000 is separately based on Jones' playtime and the team's success. It's $250,000 each for making the playoffs, winning 10 or more regular-season games and winning the AFC South provided Jones' playtime is at least 75%. Jones also has $500,000 each for winning a wild card, divisional round playoff game and the conference championship game as long as he has a minimum of 50% offensive playtime in the game. Winning the Super Bowl is worth an additional $1 million with the same individual offensive playtime requirement. Finally, there's $500,000 for being a named a first-team All-Pro or $250,000 for a second-team All-Pro.
Mayfield probably views Jones' $44 million per year as the starting point for serious discussions and his salary floor. He would earn approximately $92 million under Jones' new contract using his three Tampa Bay seasons as a baseline for his performance in 2026 and 2027. Since signing with the Buccaneers in 2023, Mayfield has been more consistent and productive than Jones, who was having a surprising career resurrection before he got hurt.
Mayfield's 95 touchdown passes and 12,237 passing yards are the NFL's second and third most, respectively, over the last three seasons. Turnovers have been a concern with Mayfield. Only Geno Smith's 41 interceptions are more than the 37 Mayfield has thrown.
Mayfield has been extremely durable with the Buccaneers. He is one of three quarterbacks along with Josh Allen and Jared Goff who haven't missed a game during the last three seasons.
Three quarterback deals, averaging more than Jones' $44 million per year, recently disappearing from the marketplace certainly don't help Mayfield's cause. The Miami Dolphins released Tua Tagovailoa less than two years after he signed a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension, averaging $53.1 million per year, despite having $99.2 million in dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team's roster. The $99.2 million is a record for dead money relating to a single player contract and is being taken over the 2026 and 2027 league years because Tagovailoa was released with a post-June 1 designation.
The Arizona Cardinals moved on from Kyler Murray, who signed a five-year, $230.5 million extension, averaging $46.1 million per year, in 2022. It was inevitable that the Atlanta Falcons would release Kirk Cousins from the four-year, $180 million contract, averaging $45 million per year, he received in 2024 free agency while recovering from a right Achilles tear suffered during the middle of the 2023 season. Cousins was benched late in the 2024 season for ineffectiveness.
Whether Mayfield gets an extension or plays out his contract will likely depend on how exorbitant his demands are. The entire $30 million roster bonus becoming a sunk salary cap charge wouldn't preclude a Mayfield extension at some point prior to the start of the 2026 regular season. The opportunity for the Buccaneers to get significant 2026 salary cap relief in a new deal would be gone. Mayfield's 2026 salary cap number would remain the same if he signed a four-year extension with a $43.5 signing bonus where his $10 million base salary dropped to his $1.3 million league minimum salary.
The voiding date for Mayfield's three dummy years is a day before the 15-day window to designate franchise and transition players in 2027 opens. It will cost Tampa Bay $46.77 million at a minimum to put a franchise tag on Mayfield in 2027, given the way the 120% of prior year's salary provisions operate for these purposes, should he play out his contract and have a bounce-back season. The actual number could be higher depending on the calculations from the franchise tag formula that's primarily based on the average of the top five salaries at a player's position, which can't be accurately projected at this time.
Regardless, the average of two franchise tags in 2027 and 2028 wouldn't be any lower than $51.447 million per year. Mayfield could attempt to use this figure to justify joining the 10 quarterbacks currently making $50 million per year or more with a contract extension despite his regression from his stellar 2024 season. The Buccaneers could have serious reservations about reaching this salary stratosphere given the most recent developments in the quarterback market.
If Mayfield's situation results in a franchise tag next year, he would have little incentive to do a deal quickly like Jones did under his transition tag. Mayfield's best deal would probably come from letting the quarterback market further develop under the theory that a rising tide lifts all boats. Lamar Jackson will be in a contract year in 2027. As 2024 draft picks, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams and Bo Nix will be eligible for contract extensions. At least one of the five should reset the quarterback market. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is the league's highest-paid player at $60 million per year.
Typically, the longer a team waits to lock up a core player long term, the more it costs. That's something the Buccaneers may want to consider with Mayfield.
