Agent's Take: Travis Kelce's worth to Chiefs if future Hall of Fame tight end returns for another season
Kelce is a free agent but is expected to remain in Kansas City if he bypasses retirement
Tight end Travis Kelce didn't tip his hand about whether he would be hanging up his football cleats after the Kansas City Chiefs' 2025 season home finale against the Denver Broncos on Christmas Day. The 36-year-old contemplated retirement following the 2024 season. His return for a 13th NFL season was motivated by trying to avenge a lopsided loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.
Kelce indicated during the latter part of the 2025 season he intends on disclosing his plans to the Chiefs by early March so the organization can plan accordingly. Free agency begins on March 11 when the 2026 league year starts.
Chiefs owner Clark Hunt would like to have Kelce back for a 14th season. "As an organization, we certainly hope that he will come back," Hunt said at the end of January. "He had another great year. Maybe not on par with where he was four or five years ago, but still had over 800 yards, was really one of the leaders on the offensive side of the ball for us. So there's no doubt in my mind that he can still play."
Kelce is clearly on the decline. Nonetheless, he still tied for sixth in receptions among tight ends and was fourth in receiving yards for tight ends last season. Kelce's 76 catches for 851 yards with five touchdowns in 17 games would be a career year for a lot of tight ends. He was also named to the Pro Bowl for the 11th straight time.
The two-year, $34.25 million deal Kelce signed in 2024 is expiring. At $17.125 million per year, Kelce was the NFL's highest-paid tight end until George Kittle and Trey McBride's respective deals with the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals, averaging $19.1 million and $19 million per year last offseason.
Kelce will be an unrestricted free agent should he decide to continue playing. The expectation is Kelce, who will be 37 in October, would finish his career with the Chiefs.
The most analogous situation to Kelce's is Tony Gonzalez in 2013. Tight ends who are still highly productive at 36 are rare.
Gonzalez signed a two-year, $14 million contract to remain with the Atlanta Falcons shortly after turning 37. He was coming off a first-team All-Pro season in 2012 with 93 catches for 930 yards and eight touchdowns. The $7 million per year put Gonzalez in a tie with Jermichael Finley, who signed a two-year, $14 million deal with the Green Bay Packers in 2012, as the NFL's sixth-highest-paid tight end.
Gonazlez retired after a 2013 season in which he made $7 million. He had 83 catches for 859 yards with eight touchdowns in 2013 to close out his career.
The sixth-highest-paid tight end in 2025 was Mark Andrews. He signed a three-year, $39.267 million contract extension, averaging $13.089 million per year, in December. Kelce was a lot more productive than Andrews, who will be 31 in September at the start of the 2026 regular season. Andrews had 48 catches for 422 yards with five touchdowns in 17 games last season.
The salary cap was $123 million when Gonzalez signed for $7 million per year. Gonzalez's $7 million per year equates to approximately $17.25 million per year in a 2026 salary cap environment.
Another relevant data point for Kelce's 2026 compensation could be the one-year extension worth $12.01 million Jonnu Smith received last July in connection with his trade from the Miami Dolphins to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Smith had a career year in 2024, which was an outlier for him, with 88 catches for 884 yards and eight touchdowns in 17 games.
Smith's $12.01 million extension average is consistent with the average salary for 2025 starting tight ends, excluding those on rookie contracts. This figure is $12,285,810 per year. The average production for 2025 starting tight ends (rounded to the nearest whole number) was 54 catches for 570 yards with five touchdowns in 15 games.
Kelce might be willing to take some sort of hometown discount to help the Chiefs rebound from a disappointing 2025 season at this stage in his career. A stranglehold on the AFC West ended after nine straight division titles. Not only did the Chiefs miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014, the 6-11 record was the first losing season in 13 years.
It would be unreasonable to expect Kelce to play in 2026 for less than the $7 million Gonzalez made 13 years year ago. The paycut Dallas Goedert took last May from the four-year, $57 million extension, averaging $14.25 million per year, he signed in 2021 to remain with the Philadelphia Eagles would be a more appropriate discount. Goedert dropped his 2025 salary by $4.25 million to $10 million He also had additional $1 million in incentives.
Goedert caught 60 passes for 591 yards and had 11 touchdowns in 2025. The 60 catches and 11 touchdowns were career highs.
Presumably, Kelce's contract would have incentives if he took a discount. Any incentive based on what he or the Chiefs achieved statistically during the 2025 season would be classified as likely to be earned (LTBE) for 2026 and count toward the salary cap. Anything that wasn't achieved in 2025 would be considered not likely to be earned (NLTBE) and wouldn't count against the salary cap.
Any individual incentive at a lower threshold than Kelce's 2025 performance would be classified as NLTBE provided that it is coupled with an allowable team incentive. An incentive for 60 catches in 2026 and the Chiefs making the playoffs would be NLTBE. The bigger the discount, the lower the threshold should be to earn incentives. For instance, the team component could be dropped to seven wins considering the Chiefs had a 6-11 record last season.
Regardless of what decision Kelce makes about his NFL career, there's one thing we know for sure. Kelce will be a first ballot Hall of Famer when the five-year waiting period is over once he retires.
