The New England Patriots' 20-18 loss to the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game ended the team's attempt to become the first to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the franchise did it during the 2004 season. There was talk that New England, who began the season with 10 straight victories, could run the table to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the only Super Bowl winner with a perfect record, before injures changed everything. Patriots players lost a league-high 245 games to injury in the regular season.
Here's a look at New England's roster and a preview of things to come during the offseason.
Roster
Quarterbacks: Tom Brady is the NFL's most underpaid player. It's likely to stay that way as long he continues to play at an All-Pro level while under the steep hometown discount he took in a 2013 offseason contract renegotiation that freed up substantial salary cap room for the Patriots. 2016 is the second of the three new contract years in the deal. The 38-year-old will make $9 million in 2016 on a $15 million salary cap number.
Deflategate will grab the spotlight once again during the offseason as the NFL's appeal of Brady's vacated four-game suspension is scheduled for March 3 in the 2nd Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals. 2014 second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo would take over during Brady's absence if the NFL ultimately prevails. Garoppolo has played 82 offensive snaps in his two NFL seasons.
Running Backs: The Patriots were one of the NFL's most one-dimensional teams in 2015. The ball was run less than 40 percent of the time. New England ranked 30th in rushing with 87.8 yards per game. Leading rusher LeGarrette Blount (703 yards on 165 carries), who was lost for the season in Week 14 with a hip injury, is an unrestricted free agent (UFA). Dion Lewis was having a breakout season as a dual threat before suffering a midseason ACL tear in his left knee. Before his season-ending injury, the Patriots signed him to a two-year, $3 million contract extension. James White and Brandon Bolden, both under contract for 2016, assumed Lewis' role in the passing game. Steven Jackson, a member of the "10,000 rushing yards" club, was signed off the street to take Blount's place. He isn't expected back.
Wide Receivers: There has been constant turnover with the wideouts during the Bill Belichick era. Extremely underrated Julian Edelman should remain Brady's go-to wide receiver. Although Danny Amendola had his most productive season in New England with 65 catches for 648 yards and three receiving touchdowns, he may need to take another pay cut to stick around. In March, he dropped his 2015 salary from $3.5 million to $2.25 million with $750,000 in incentives based on receptions. Amendola earned $525,000 of his incentives. The 2013 free-agent signee's salary is $5.5 million next season.
Brandon LaFell could be released. He was plagued by drops during the season and fell to fourth on the depth chart for the AFC Championship Game. LaFell is scheduled to make $2.8 million on a $3.65 million cap number in the final year of a three-year, $9 million deal (worth up to $11.7 million with incentives) signed in 2014. Keshawn Martin, who was acquired from the Houston Texans in a September trade, signed a two-year, $2.975 million extension (with an additional $1.7 million in salary escalators and incentives) during the playoffs.
Tight Ends: It's a foregone conclusion that the Patriots will pick up the incomparable Rob Gronkowski's 2016 through 2019 contract years before the 2015 league year ends on March 9 (if they haven't already) by paying him the required $6 million bonus. Gronkowski's option bonus had been $10 million, but $4 million was given to him as a signing bonus in a slight contract modification when training camp opened. There isn't much else at tight end. Scott Chandler may not have done enough to justify returning in 2016 for a $2.05 million salary where his cap number is $3.05 million.
Offensive Line: The Patriots fired Dave DeGuglielmo, who had been the offensive line coach for two years, after pass-blocking deficiencies were exploited in the AFC title game. Brady was hit 20 times, which was the most for a quarterback in a game since 2006, according to Sports Illustrated's Doug Farrar.
DeGuelielmo had his work cut out for him because injuries decimated the offensive line. There were 13 different starting offensive-line combinations during the season and 37 different combinations were used in games.
Left tackle Nate Solder, who signed a two-year, $20.062 million extension (with a maximum value of $21.562 million) at the start of the regular season, was limited to four games because of a season-ending biceps injury. The loss of Solder and other injuries caused a constant reshuffling where players were moved from their customary positions. Three rookies, center David Andrews and guards Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason, played more than 50 percent of New England's offensive snaps during the regular season.
Defensive Line: Chandler Jones anchored a defensive line that helped the Patriots generate 49 sacks, the second most in the NFL. The defensive end trio of Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard, the latter of whom was New England's best offseason free agent pick up, combined for 27 sacks. Jones was fifth in the NFL with 12.5. 2016 is the 2012 first-round pick's option year in which he is scheduled to make $7.799 million. 2015 first-round pick Malcolm Brown led the interior defensive linemen in playing time. Akiem Hicks, who was acquired from the New Orleans Saints in an early season trade, and Sealver Siliga are unrestricted and restricted free agents, respectively.
Linebackers: The Patriots have two of the NFL's best young linebackers in Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower. Collins has unmatched versatility as an outside linebacker. He earned his first Pro Bowl berth this season. Hightower and Collins will be in contract years during 2016, making $7.751 million (option year) and $917,865, respectively.
Mayo provided more intangibles than tangibles in his comeback from a torn right patellar tendon as a defense with just two linebackers was frequently employed. Jonathan Freeny, who received a one-year, $1.825 million extension (worth up to $3.025 million with salary escalators and incentives) in September that runs through the 2016 season, overtook him on the depth chart as well. It's hard to imagine a scenario where the Patriots will pick their option for Mayo next year in which he's scheduled to make $8 million, of which $4 million is a roster bonus (due on March 9, the first day of the 2016 league year) on an $11.4 million cap number.
Secondary: Conventional wisdom suggested that New England would struggle against the pass with the departure of cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. Malcolm Butler, a 2014 undrafted free agent, built on his game-saving Super Bowl XLIX interception by becoming a Pro Bowler. 2013 third-round pick Logan Ryan was also up to the task when Tarell Brown, who signed a one-year deal, went on injured reserve six weeks into the season. Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty, who became the NFL's second-highest-paid safety with his five-year, $47.5 million contract containing $28.5 million in guarantees, were both top-ten safeties according to Pro Football Focus' rating system.
Special Teams: Stephen Gostkowski earned All-Pro honors for the third time in his career in 2015. The NFL's highest paid kicker's ($4.3 million per year) untimely missed extra point in the AFC Championship game snapped his NFL-record 523 consecutive XP streak and was his first failed conversion in nine years. Matthew Slater's stellar special teams play was rewarded with a fifth straight Pro Bowl nod.
Salary Cap
NFL teams were informed at a league meeting in December that the 2016 salary cap is preliminarily projected to be between $150 million and $153.4 million. When the 2016 salary cap is set in late February or early March, the expectation is for it to be at the high end of projections if not over the preliminary numbers like in the last two years.
During the offseason, only the top 51 cap numbers count on the salary cap. The Patriots have slightly over $147.6 million in 2016 cap commitments with 61 players under contract while approximately $1.35 million of unused cap room can be carried over from the 2015 league year. Once tenders for restricted free agents and exclusive rights players with expiring contracts, proven performance salary escalators for 2013 third-through-seventh-round picks and earned/unearned performance bonuses are accounted for, New England should have approximately $4.33 million of 2016 cap space assuming a $153.4 million salary cap.
Declining the option on Mayo would create $7 million of cap space. Letting LaFell go would free up another $2.65 million of cap room. Finding a new tight end to pair with Gronkowski would net $2.05 million of cap room if Chandler is released.
The Patriots could pick up an additional $2.5 million under the cap by getting Amendola to a more manageable cap number from his $6,804,166 figure. This could be done by cutting his base salary in half to $2.5 million, shifting $1 million of the remaining salary to a roster bonus payable a few days after the renegotiation, with a total of $750,000 in incentives starting at 70 receptions. Any incentives requiring Amendola to do more than he did during this season would be considered not likely to be earned for cap purposes.
New England could also consider getting rid of underperforming offensive lineman with 2016 contracts, primarily Marcus Cannon. His departure could free up $3,687,500 of cap space.
Free Agency/Team Needs
The Patriots have 10 UFAs, including Blount, Brown and Hicks, and five restricted free agents. The UFAs are much closer to being luxuries than necessities. The only restricted free agents that the Patriots should consider tendering for $1.651 million, which is the lowest possible amount with a $153.4 million salary cap, are Siliga and fullback James Develin.
Offense: It may be time for the Patriots to reconsider their approach to acquiring offensive line talent. Solder and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer are the only two offensive linemen the Patriots have taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft since 2006.
The running game should be upgraded so that there's more offensive balance. Alfred Morris could be an intriguing possibility provided Blount isn't brought back on a contract similar to his existing one. Blount made a little less than $1.15 million this season including incentives. Morris may have a hard time landing a satisfactory long-term deal, since free agency has been a buyer's market with running backs in recent years and he rushed for less than 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. He was second in the NFL in rushing as a rookie in 2012 with 1,613 yards.
Matt Forte, 30, could be an option if the Patriots are comfortable with an older running back. His contract should make him the league's highest-paid running back to sign after turning 30. The deal may not be much more than the three-year, $12 million contract Frank Gore received in offseason from the Indianapolis Colts as a free agent.
Brady hasn't had an elite wide receiver at his disposal during his 16 years with the Patriots besides Randy Moss for slightly more than two seasons. That's unlikely to change in 2016. The best available free agents will be No. 2 wide receivers since the Chicago Bears are expected to designate Alshon Jeffery as a franchise player.
Defense: New England's focus defensively should be on locking up as many of their outstanding young defensive players entering contract years as possible, since only one can be given a franchise tag in 2017. It will be interesting to see which player is the top priority.
Hightower is practically everything Jerod Mayo used to be in New England's defense before injuries diminished his effectiveness. Mayo got a five-year, $48.5 million extension (included $27 million in guarantees) towards the end of the 2011 season when the salary cap was $120.375 million. The Patriots are going to have to do better than that with Hightower since it will essentially be a five-year-old deal by the time his contract talks heat up. An equivalent contract to Mayo's in a 2016 salary cap environment averages approximately $12.35 million per year with close to $34.5 million in guarantees. A deal should be able to be struck between the two data points.
The top of the market for outside linebackers that aren't considered pass rushers is set by Lavonte David. His deal could be an important salary benchmark for Collins. David received a five-year, $50.25 million extension from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the preseason. Approximately $25.5 million is guaranteed, and the deal could be worth as much as $54.75 million because of base salary escalators relating to Pro Bowl and All-NFL selections.
Jones's injury history and synthetic marijuana usage could impact his negotiations. He should be the most expensive of the three because of the premium paid to players that can consistently pressure quarterbacks.
Jones will likely look to exceed the four-year extension Robert Quinn signed with the St. Louis (now Los Angeles) Rams early in the 2014 season that averages approximately $14.25 million per year and contains slightly less than $41.175 million in guarantees. New England will likely want to keep Jones' deal in line with Ryan Kerrigan's five-year extension from the Washington Redskins averaging $11.5 million per year that was signed last July. Conceivably, the Patriots could pick up some modest cap relief from new deals with Hightower and Jones because of their fifth-year option salaries.
Butler is also eligible for a new deal as a 2014 undrafted free agent. 2014 draft picks are prohibited from signing new deals until the end of the third year of their rookie contracts (after the conclusion of the 2016 regular season).
The Patriots have all of the leverage with Butler. In addition to being under contract for another season, the Patriots will control his rights when his contract expires. Butler will be a restricted free agent in 2017. New England will likely give him a restricted free agent tender where they will get a first-round pick from a team that signs him to an offer sheet that they don't match. This first-round tender should be between $3.77 million and $3.95 million when Butler is restricted. Knowing that they can have Butler for the next two seasons well below his market value, the only type of deal the Patriots are probably willing to do is one where Butler gives up multiple unrestricted free agent years at a discounted rate.
The easiest way to reach an agreement would be for both sides to look at a deal in a piecemeal manner instead of in its totality. Butler's restricted free agency at the expected 2017 first-round tender should be acknowledged where the focus would be on valuing his unrestricted free agent years. The Patriots have already established through Darrelle Revis' one-year stay with the team that they are willing to pay $12 million for a top-flight cornerback. The value of each year of unrestricted free agency Butler gives up could be in this ballpark.
Outlook
The Patriots should be Super Bowl contenders during the next two seasons while Brady is under contract. He isn't showing any signs of slowing down. Neither was Peyton Manning when Father Time snuck up on him like a thief in the night during the 2014 season at 38. It remains to be seen how long the three-time Super Bowl MVP can keep Father Time at bay. Once Brady starts to diminish or is no longer in the picture, it will be incumbent upon other areas of the roster to pick up the slack for the Patriots to maintain their stronghold on the AFC East.
Joel Corry is a former sports agent who helped found Premier Sports & Entertainment, a sports management firm that represents professional athletes and coaches. Before his tenure at Premier, Joel worked for Management Plus Enterprises, which represented Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Ronnie Lott.
You can follow him on Twitter: @corryjoel | You can email him at jccorry@gmail.com
