While it is too early to label Bryce Young -- or any rookie for that matter -- a bust, it is not too early to be concerned, especially for a quarterback in today's NFL, where leashes are shorter than ever, even for top picks.
The consensus No. 1 quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft -- for whom the Carolina Panthers believed in so much they traded the No. 9 overall pick, a second-round choice, a 2024 first-round selection, a 2025 second-rounder and No. 1 wideout D.J. Moore to the Chicago Bears for the opportunity to draft him -- has had a very concerning start to his professional career.
For a weekly story series that is published on Tuesdays, I spend every Monday watching each dropback from all the first- and second-year quarterbacks. I highlight "high-caliber throws/plays" and "low-caliber throws/plays" and assign a letter grade for every performance.
Admittedly, I'm somewhat of a hard grader -- throwing accurately to wide-open targets doesn't improve the grade much, if at all -- and I've given Young an "F" and two "D+" grades entering Week 5. His efforts have been wholly uninspiring and ultra-conservative. They've lacked the creative brilliance we watched for two seasons at Alabama, and his weaknesses have been highlighted in each contest.
From a statistical perspective, Young's current 4.9 yards-per-attempt average ranks 249th out of 261 quarterbacks in modern NFL history (since 1961) to attempt at least 75 passes in their first three professional starts (rookie year or not).
Now, I must note that there are a few ultimately successful quarterbacks -- Donovan McNabb, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Hasselbeck -- beneath Young in that specific YPA stat.
But as you can probably imagine, there are significantly more eventual star quarterbacks on the opposite end of that early-career metric, passers who got off to tremendously efficient starts moving the football through the air -- Kurt Warner, Dan Marino, Justin Herbert, Tony Romo, Daunte Culpepper and Aaron Rodgers all rank in the top 25 -- and many others who simply weren't terribly inefficient.
Even if that stat is filtered to rookies only and the pass-attempt threshold is dropped to 50, Young's 4.9 YPA ranks 243rd out of 260 qualifying quarterbacks. Fact is, Young's inefficiency has been historically significant.
And believe it or not, my current concern for Young's future goes well beyond the numbers.
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Even those who adored Young as a prospect didn't discount the idea that he did not have a monstrous, typical No. 1 overall pick arm. And there've been a variety throws from Young either defended or intercepted that appeared to lack velocity on the football.
On the flip side, even those who weren't completely enamored with Young -- like myself -- had to admit: the guy made tremendous off-script, outside-of-structure plays at Alabama look routine. However, while those in that camp acknowledged his ad-libbing brilliance, there wasn't much confidence that Young's overall athletic profile would allow him to do the same when NFL defenders were chasing him.
And through three games, Young's athleticism has been stretched to the limit. His pressure-to-sack rate of 22% is the 10th-highest in football (meaning he's been sacked 22% of the time he's been pressured). His overall sack rate is 9.6%, not brutally high for most rookie quarterbacks but decently alarming for a No. 1 overall pick who was tabbed as an improvisation specialist.
He has seven rushes/scrambles for 61 yards and is 5 of 14 for 35 yards on throws made outside the pocket. Yikes.
Then there's the classic "what if?" scenario naturally built in when quarterbacks are picked at No. 1 and No. 2 overall like Young and C.J. Stroud, particularly when the second selection outperforms the first. Houston's rookie has gotten off to a historic start, and I've given him grades of "D+", "C+", "B", and "B+" in his first four NFL starts.
Here's how the two compare statistically:
| Adjusted Comp % | Avg Depth of Tgt | Yards/Attempt | Big Time Throw % | Turnover Worthy Play % | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C.J. Stroud | 74.1% | 8.4 yds | 8.0 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 100.6 |
Bryce Young | 76.4% | 6.2 yds | 4.9 | 0.9% | 4.5% | 74.9 |
For context, Stroud has seen open receivers much more frequently than Young. He hasn't done extreme heavy lifting operating the Texans offense.
But like Carolina, Houston's offensive line isn't an elite group and has dealt with injuries -- it was without both of its starting tackles against the Steelers -- yet it hasn't appeared to shake Stroud whatsoever after a challenging NFL debut in Baltimore against the Ravens in Week 1.
I'm not attempting to completely bury Young three starts into his NFL career. The abysmal inefficiency is one thing, and it's noteworthy. More importantly than a three-game sample of stats is this: the traits that helped Young separate from his quarterback contemporaries during the pre-draft process have been rendered almost useless. They're simply not providing him the same advantages they did in college.
And physical traits rarely change in the NFL, especially at quarterback.
That's why I have concern with Young this early.
