Bengals at Steelers -- Week 16

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Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh (grass, outdoors)

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Spread: Steelers by 3.5

Forecast: Temperatures in mid-30s, windy, no precipitation expected.

Records: Bengals (8-6; AFC North 1-3); Steelers (7-7; AFC North 2-2)

Past results: Two most recent regular-season meetings -- Oct. 21, 2012: Steelers 24, Bengals 17; Dec. 4, 2011: Steelers 35, Bengals 7. Series record: Steelers lead 53-32

What matters: The stakes don't get any higher. This will be the equivalent of a playoff game for both teams. If the Bengals win, they clinch a playoff berth and eliminate the Steelers. If Pittsburgh wins, the only way the Bengals could reach the postseason would be with a win over Baltimore in Week 17 and the Browns upset Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. The playoffs start now and the young, upstart Bengals see their progress at a crossroads. A win and the season should be viewed as a success, this young team will have cleared the hurdle of jumping past Pittsburgh to the elite in the AFC North and will then ride a wave of confidence into the postseason. A loss and the same old Bengals storylines play out with a team who plays well but never good enough to compete with the division flag-bearers. The Bengals have lost nine consecutive games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Who matters: Andy Dalton. The Bengals quarterback rebuffed talk of a sophomore slump with an impressive midseason run of nine touchdowns without an interception that sparked a four-game win streak.

Yet, for all the progress he's made this season with 3,313 passing yards, and 26 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, he's been baffled by the Steelers in his career.
  • Dalton per-game average vs. Pittsburgh (0-3): 13 of 27, 137 yards, 48 percent, 1.3 TD, 1 INT

  • Dalton per-game average vs. the rest of the NFL: 21 of 34 for 233 yards, 61.3 percent, 1.6 TD, 1 INT

For the Bengals, they need Dalton to outplay Ben Roethlisberger. The time has come for Dalton to rise from a good quarterback to a great one. This will be his stage. "I've just got to make more plays," Dalton said. "I've had chances and I haven't hit them. I expect to play better myself, and I'm going to play better."

Key matchup: Bengals WR Marvin Jones vs. Pittsburgh DB Josh Victorian. Steelers defensive coordinator made his plan clear in the first meeting of the season: A.J. Green would not beat him. Linebackers under and safeties over top clouded his direction holding him to one reception for eight yards, his lowest as a pro. That leaves the pressure on No. 2 WR Marvin Jones to take advantage of one-on-one coverage against Victorian, who up until two weeks ago spent the season on the practice squad. Now injuries forced him in as the starting corner. The fifth-round pick Jones has been plagued by inconsistency during his rookie season. Over the last four weeks he's been targeted 13 times with only five receptions, including one drop that deflected into an interception. If the Bengals win, Jones, slot WR Andrew Hawkins or TE Jermaine Gresham must step up and create an explosive play to change the game. "We've just got to get somebody else to step up," offensive coordinator Jay Gruden said.
Key matchup stat: The last four Bengals wins against LeBeau and Pittsburgh (two times in 2009, 2006, 2005) have all featured the Bengals secondary receiver leading the offense.
  • 2009 -- Bengals 18, Steelers 12: Laverneus Coles, 5 receptions, 67 yards
  • 2009 -- Bengals 23, Steelers 20: Andre Caldwell, 6 receptions, 52 yards, game-winning TD
  • 2006 -- Bengals 28, Steelers 20: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 9 receptions, 94 yards, 2TDs
  • 2005 -- Bengals 38, Steelers 31: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 5 receptions, 88 yards, 2TDs
Injuries of note: Pittsburgh's top CB, Ike Taylor, will not play. Taylor led the defensive charge shutting down Green in the first game, drawing the majority of the coverage.

Inside stuff: The Bengals red zone offense sputtered since WR Mohamed Sanu went on IR (foot). Sanu enjoyed a stretch of four touchdowns in three games as the starter and changed the dynamics in the red zone against teams focusing on Green. The last three games with Sanu, Cincinnati converted 11 of 13 red zone trips into touchdowns. The three games without Sanu, Cincinnati converted just 6 of 14 red zone trips into touchdowns.

Stat you should know:  This game pits the top two defenses in the NFL over the second half of the season.

Since Week 9, the Bengals have allowed 4.31 yards per play and the Steelers 4.38, both best in the NFL. Over that span, Cincinnati has allowed just five TDs. The next fewest by any team is nine allowed by Tennessee.

Record watch: The Bengals racked up 43 sacks thus far this year, best in the NFL. With five more sacks they will tie the franchise mark for sacks in a season (48) set by the 2001 team.

Bulletin board quote: Rookie LB Vontaze Burfict on what his first season under fiery defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has been like: "When I first came in here I was kind of scared of the guy. I was like, man, he looks so mean and I told my mom, 'I'm scared of our defensive coordinator. I'm scared to mess up at practice.' She's like, 'It's going to get better.' ... For me, I think players play better when they are scared of the defensive coordinator because they don't want to mess up as much. That kind of goes with me, I don't want to mess up my job. I read my keys and stuff because I know later on I will have to hear Zimmer's mouth."

Looking ahead: The Bengals will close the season at home against Baltimore. Should Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh and the Giants top the Ravens, the Week 17 game at Paul Brown Stadium would be for the AFC North crown.

Prediction: Bengals 17, Steelers 13

Follow Paul Dehner Jr. for Bengals updates on Twitter @CBSBengals.