Bills vs. Broncos prediction, odds, time: NFL divisional round Saturday picks from 10,000 simulations

The divisional round of the 2026 NFL playoffs kicks off with the Denver Broncos hosting the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. The Broncos (14-3) tied for the league's best record, won back-to-back games to close the regular season and earned a bye as the AFC's No. 1 seed. The Bills (12-5) have won six of their last seven contests, including a 27-24 road victory over Jacksonville in Sunday's Wild Card matchup. Buffalo is seeking its second straight AFC Title Game appearance, while Denver is hoping to reach the championship game for the first time since winning the Super Bowl 10 years ago.

Kickoff is at 4:30 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Buffalo prevailed 31-7, at home, when these teams last met in last year's Wild Card round. The latest Broncos vs. Bills odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite, while the over/under for total points is 46.5. Before making any Bills vs. Broncos picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Broncos vs. Bills. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting trends Bills vs. Broncos:

Why the Bills can cover

It was just a year ago that the Bills trounced the Broncos, 31-7, in the playoffs, but Buffalo's dominance over Denver goes back beyond that. The Bills are 8-1 against the spread versus the Broncos over their last nine meetings, with three of those games taking place in Denver. Buffalo just defeated an elite defense in Jacksonville, which had the No. 1 run defense and forced the second-most turnovers. Thus, the Bills should find an easier time on the ground come Saturday, and Denver has the least opportunistic defense in the postseason. No 2026 playoff team forced fewer turnovers than the Broncos' 14, which is fewer than one per game. The Bills are undefeated (8-0) when they don't give away the ball and boast an 11-1 record with one or fewer turnovers. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Broncos can cover

This will be Buffalo's eight divisional road game since the 1970 merger, and the Bills have covered just once over that span. One also can't discount Denver coming off a bye, as the Broncos are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five with a rest advantage, while the Bills are 1-4 ATS this season when having less rest than their opponents. Denver possesses a ferocious pass rush as its 68 sacks are the fifth-most in NFL history, and the Bills have struggled when Josh Allen is under attack. The Broncos average 4.0 sacks per game, and Buffalo has lost six straight games, including being 0-3 this season, when Allen is sacked at least four times. Additionally, Sean Payton and company can exploit Buffalo's porous run defense as just four teams allowed more yards on the ground than Buffalo this season. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bills vs. Broncos picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Broncos vs. Bills 10,000 times and is going Over on the total, projecting 47 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Bills vs. Broncos, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.