Bills vs. Jaguars prediction, odds, start time: 2026 NFL Wild Card Weekend picks from proven model

The red-hot and third-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars look to win their ninth game in a row when they take on the sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills in a 2026 NFL Wild Card Weekend matchup on Sunday. Buffalo is coming off a 35-8 win over the New York Jets, while Jacksonville defeated Tennessee 41-7 in Week 18. The Bills (12-5), who have won five of the past six games, are 5-3 on the road this season. The Jaguars (13-4), who won the AFC South title, are 7-2 on their home field.

Kickoff from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla., is set for 1 p.m. ET. Jacksonville is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Jaguars odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 51.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Before making any Jaguars vs. Bills picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Jaguars. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Jaguars vs. Bills:

Why the Bills can cover

Veteran quarterback Josh Allen has had another solid season. In 17 starts, Allen has completed 69.3% of his passes for 3,668 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions and a 102.2 rating. He has also rushed 112 times for 579 yards (5.2 average) and 14 touchdowns. In a 35-31 win at New England on Dec. 14, he completed 19 of 28 passes for 193 yards and three touchdowns. He also carried 11 times for 48 yards.

Powering the Buffalo rushing attack is James Cook III. In 17 games, Cook has carried 309 times for 1,621 yards (5.2 average) and 12 touchdowns. He had nine explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 64, with 68 first-down conversions. He also made 33 receptions for 291 yards (8.8 average) and two scores. In a 23-20 win at Cleveland on Dec. 21, he carried 16 times for 117 yards and two touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Jaguars can cover

Veteran quarterback Trevor Lawrence powers the Jacksonville offense. In 17 starts, Lawrence has completed 60.9% of his passes for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions and a 91.0 rating. He is also second on the team in rushing, carrying 82 times for 359 yards (4.4 average) and nine touchdowns. In the win over Tennessee in Week 18, he completed 22 of 30 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns.

Running back Travis Etienne Jr. is another weapon on offense. In 17 games, he carried 260 times for 1,107 yards (4.3 average) with seven touchdowns. He had seven explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 71, with 48 first-down conversions. Etienne also caught 36 passes for 292 yards (8.1 average) and six touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bills vs. Jaguars picks

SportsLine's model is going Under on the total, projecting 51 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Bills vs. Jaguars, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Jaguars spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.