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In a span of just over 12 months, Bo Nix went from guiding Oregon to a 45-6 victory against Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl to helping lead the Denver Broncos to their first playoff appearance in nine years. Things didn't go well for Nix against the Buffalo Bills in his NFL postseason debut, but he and the Broncos have an opportunity to even the score this weekend.

The top-seeded Broncos look to avenge last year's defeat and record their first playoff victory since winning Super Bowl 50 when they host the No. 6 Bills in the AFC Divisional Round at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday at Empower Field.

Selected with the 12th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Nix had an impressive rookie season under head coach Sean Payton, throwing for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns as Denver posted a 10-7 record -- its first winning mark since going 9-7 in 2016. The Broncos were thoroughly defeated in the Wild Card Round by the Bills, however, losing 31-7 as they scored less than 2 1/2 minutes into the game but were blanked the rest of the way while Nix completed just 13-of-22 pass attempts for 144 yards and a TD.

Denver went 14-3 this campaign, ending the Kansas City Chiefs' nine-year reign atop the AFC West while earning the No. 1 seed in the conference and a first-round bye. The Bills posted a 12-5 record but had their streak of five consecutive AFC East titles snapped and were resigned to playing on the road for as long as it remained the postseason. They began with a 27-24 wild-card triumph over the Jacksonville Jaguars as Josh Allen scored his second rushing touchdown of the game with 1:04 remaining in the fourth quarter to erase a four-point deficit and help Buffalo advance.

Despite being the top seed in the conference, Denver is not one of the favorites at DraftKings to win Super Bowl LX. The Broncos are fifth overall and third in the AFC to capture the Lombardi Trophy with odds of +700, while Buffalo is just ahead of them at +650.

The Broncos are 1.5-point favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 45.5 in the latest DraftKings NFL odds for Buffalo vs. Denver in the Divisional Round.

Here is a look at the Bills vs. Broncos matchup from a betting perspective.

Bills vs. Broncos odds

  • Opening spread: Bills -1.5
  • Opening money line: Bills -122, Broncos +102
  • Opening total: 46.5

The Bills opened as 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings but now are 1.5-point underdogs. In addition to there being heavy play on the Broncos in the early going, the swing likely has something to do with Buffalo's thin receiving corps, which lost Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers for the remainder of the postseason in last weekend's wild-card victory at Jacksonville as both wideouts suffered a torn ACL. That leaves the team with only three healthy wide receivers, although Curtis Samuel (elbow) could be activated from injured reserve as he has been practicing this week. Samuel hasn't played since Week 11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but had a 55-yard touchdown reception in Buffalo's rout of Denver last postseason.

Bills betting profile

  • Opening win total: 11.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 13-5 (including playoffs)
  • ATS record: 9-9 (including playoffs)
  • O/U record: 9-9 (including playoffs)

The Bills initially were 1.5-point favorites against the Jaguars last week before several major sportsbooks were compelled to flip the spread. Either way, they covered as they ended their eight-game road losing streak in the postseason with their first such win since 1992.

Buffalo is 8-1 against the spread in its last nine meetings with the Broncos. The Bills were 7.5-point favorites at home in last year's wild card matchup and cruised to a 24-point victory as Allen threw a pair of touchdown passes while James Cook ran for 120 yards and a score.

However, the Bills have been on the road seven previous times in the Divisional Round since 1970 and covered only once, rolling past the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-3 as 1.5-point underdogs in 1992. Most recently, they were getting 2.5 points in 2021 but lost 42-36 in overtime at Kansas City.

Including last year's playoff showdown, Buffalo has won six of the last eight meetings between the teams. Two of those victories occurred in Denver, where the Bills posted a 30-23 triumph in 2008 and routed the Broncos 48-19 in 2020 as Allen threw for 359 yards and two TDs while also running for a pair of scores.

Broncos betting profile

  • Opening win total: 10.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 14-3
  • ATS record: 7-10 
  • O/U record: 7-10

The Broncos have had difficulty covering the spread of late, doing so only twice in their last six contests. One of those covers came when they were 1.5-point underdogs against the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, when they posted a 34-26 victory at home.

Denver was just 5-4 against the spread at Empower Field during the regular season and went 3-9 ATS as the favorite. The Broncos failed to cover in each of their last five Divisional Round appearances, going 0-4 ATS in the first four before pushing as 7-point favorites against the Steelers in 2015 with a 23-16 victory.

Bills-Broncos prop pick: Josh Allen anytime TD scorer (-120)

The Broncos were fourth in the NFL during the regular season with only 11 rushing touchdowns allowed. But Allen was third in the league with 14 TD runs, which was more than the entire total of 11 teams and nearly three-times as many as the Las Vegas Raiders (five). The reigning NFL MVP ran for multiple scores five times during the regular season and had a pair of rushing touchdowns against the Jaguars last weekend. Allen made his way to the end zone in two of his last three meetings with the Broncos and five of his past seven playoff games. Since Cook hasn't had a TD run in his last two full contests and Ty Johnson may miss his second straight game due to an ankle injury, I expect the Bills to call Allen's number when they get close to the goal line. I also expect Allen to be successful in his attempt to score at least once.