New York Jets v Buffalo Bills - NFL 2025
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In the first of three Wild Card Weekend games taking place on Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Buffalo Bills.

Jacksonville won the AFC South and captured the No. 3 seed in the conference. The Jaguars won eight games in a row to end the season and nine out of 10 following their Week 8 bye. The Jags are arguably the hottest team in football heading into the postseason tournament, and yet they are underdogs at home for their opening-round game.

Buffalo did not win the AFC East for the first time since 2019, finishing in second place in the division with a 12-5 record and claiming the No. 6 seed in the AFC. The Bills won five of their final six games following an embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Texans toward the end of November, including a Week 18 blowout of the Jets that took place almost entirely with their backups on the field.

Will the Bills be able to capitalize on one of their best chances in recent years, or will the Jaguars ruin their plans? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down some key storylines, here's a look at how you can watch the game.

Where to watch Jaguars vs. Bills

Key storylines

  • Red-hot Jaguars. Jacksonville has won eight in a row by an average of more than 19 points per game. The Jags have scored 23-plus points in each of those games and have given up more than 20 only once during that stretch. They've allowed single-digit points more often (three times) than they've allowed teams to get more than 20. The level of competition during the season-ending stretch wasn't particularly high (they played the Colts and Titans twice each, plus the Cardinals and Jets), but in the two games they played during that stretch against playoff teams, they dominated the Chargers 35-6 and handily beat the Broncos 34-20.
  • Buffalo's run defense. If the Bills have a major weakness, it is defending the run. Buffalo has yielded an average of 5.1 yards per carry, the third-worst mark in the NFL. The Bills have given up 100 or more rushing yards in 11 of 17 games, 150 or more in seven of 17 and 200 or more in four of 17. If you can get the run game going, you can control the proceedings against the Bills. The Jaguars averaged just 4.0 yards per carry during the regular season, but they did have four games where they ran for 150 yards or more. All four of those games, though, came in the first 11 weeks of the season.
  • Trevor Lawrence in the playoffs. Lawrence had a fascinating payoff debut a few years ago. He had about as disastrous a first half as humanly possible in the first round against the Chargers, but he came back and led four consecutive touchdown drives and then a game-winning field goal drive to complete a comeback from a 27-0 deficit. While it was obviously an incredible feat, going down by that much against a Bills defense that is far better against the pass than the run wouldn't be quite as easy to accomplish.
  • Josh Allen's best chance? Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and Joe Burrow and the Bengals are all sitting at home rather than participating in this year's postseason. If ever there were going to be a chance for Allen and the Bills to break through, this would seem like the year. Of course, they'll likely have to go on the road three times (unless the Chargers win this week and next) just to make it to the Super Bowl thanks to the fact that they didn't win the division this year, which makes it tougher to do. Still, many are going to consider this Buffalo's best opportunity thanks to the wide-open nature of the conference field and the lack of the other inner-circle superstar quarterbacks in the tournament.

Prediction

The Jags are arguably the hottest team in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career. Liam Coen is a Coach of the Year candidate. The defense has forced at least one turnover in six straight games and at least two in five of them. And yet... the Bills have Josh Allen, and I cannot bring myself to bet against the best quarterback in the AFC side of the bracket -- even when going on the road. Between Allen and James Cook, I think Buffalo will be able to move the ball here, and in a close game I am always going to ride with the team that has a better quarterback. That's Buffalo. 

Prediction: Bills 26, Jaguars 23