Buccaneers at Broncos -- Week 13
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver (grass, outdoors)
When: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Spread: Broncos by 7
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Projected kickoff temperature is mid-60s.
Records: Buccaneers (Overall: 6-5, NFC South: 2-2); Broncos (Overall: 8-3, AFC West: 4-0)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Oct. 5, 2008: Broncos 16, Bucs 13; Oct. 3, 2004: Broncos 16, Bucs 13. Series record: Denver leads 5-2, with Tampa Bay last win in 1999.
What matters: There are playoff implications aplenty heading into Sunday's game in Denver. The Broncos would clinch the AFC West title with a win or a Chargers loss. The Bucs are fighting to stay in wild-card contention with Atlanta all but sewing up the NFC South. Tampa Bay is tied for the final wild-card spot with Seattle and Minnesota, but the Seahawks hold the tiebreaker. Each game is absolutely vital down the stretch.
Who matters: Denver QB Peyton Manning, WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. On paper, this matchup seems almost too good to be true for the Broncos' passing game, which ranks fifth in the NFL, averaging 287.5 yards per game. If they play well, this game might never be close considering the Bucs' secondary, battling attrition issues, is statistically the NFL's worst, allowing 316 passing yards per game.
Key matchups: RB Doug Martin vs. the Denver run defense. The Broncos have a stingy pass defense that allows 210 yards per game -- fifth-best in the NFL. They have standout pass rushers in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. To take some pressure off QB Josh Freeman and the passing game, Martin will need to be productive. It won't be easy -- even for the league's fourth-leading rusher -- as Denver allows 98.7 rushing yards per game, ninth in the NFL.
Injuries of note: The Broncos lost RB Willis McGahee for the season with a knee injury, but Knowshon Moreno fared well in his stead last week, carrying 20 times for 85 yards. Bucs DT Roy Miller had missed time in practice this week due to illness but returned to action Friday and is expected to play. CB Eric Wright battled through an Achilles injury to play last week, but his suspension for Adderall use was upheld and begins Sunday.
Inside stuff: When it comes to Tampa Bay's rookie class, much of the attention rightly goes to Martin, who has been outstanding in his first NFL season. Much of the remaining focus is spent on fellow first-round pick Mark Barron, a safety who has been inconsistent. But quietly, LB Lavonte David may be playing as well as anyone. With 47 tackles and five tackles for loss in November, David earned NFL defensive rookie of the month honors. His speed and sure tackling ability has been a huge asset for the Bucs' defense.
Stat you should know: When Tampa Bay's receivers catch the ball, they gain yards in large chunks. WR Vincent Jackson is third in the NFL in yards per catch (20.4) and teammate Mike Williams is eighth (16.9). They are the only teammates in the top 10 in that category.
Looking ahead: The Bucs' beleaguered secondary may finally get a bit of respite next week against the Eagles -- assuming, of course, that Philadelphia QB Michael Vick is still injured and rookie Nick Foles continues to struggle. That game will be an absolute must-win for Tampa Bay's playoff hopes if the team loses to the Broncos.
Prediction: Denver 38, Tampa Bay 24
For more from Tampa Bay Bucs blogger Patrick Southern, follow @CBSBucs on Twitter.