In the first of two Week 7 "Monday Night Football" games, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore is on a roll coming into this matchup, having won four straight after starting their season 0-2. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are running roughshod over opposing defenses, just as so many expected they would when the Ravens united them in the backfield this offseason. The Bucs, meanwhile, are also one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the NFL, led by a passing attack that has seen Baker Mayfield play like the No. 1 overall pick that he was. It should be an exciting, back-and-forth affair, and a delight to watch.
Can the Ravens win their fifth game in a row, or will the Bucs make it back-to-back victories? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Buccaneers vs. Ravens
Date: Monday, Oct. 21 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Channel: ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Ravens -3.5; O/U 50 (via Caesars)
When the Ravens have the ball
The Bucs have allowed 4.7 yards per carry this year, and 1.64 before contact, via Tru Media. Both of those rank inside the bottom-third of the NFL. Worse yet, they have yielded the NFL's third-highest avoided tackle rate, which could be just a little bit of a problem against Jackson and Henry. The Bucs have also already allowed 187 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, which was sixth-most in the NFL through six weeks. Again, this is a problem when facing a Lamar Jackson-led opponent. The Ravens' offensive line has gelled quite well over the last few games, and should be able to generate some pretty good push up front here.
Meanwhile, Todd Bowles' defense is blitzing at the league's seventh-highest rate. That would normally be a good idea against Jackson -- but not this year. Lamar is fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz, completing 39 of 56 passes (69.6%) for 542 yards (9.7. per attempt), taking just 1 sack and averaging an absurd 13 yards per scramble when taking off. He's getting the ball out FAST, with over 53% of his attempts vs. the blitz being released within 2.5 seconds of the snap.
| Season | EPA/DB | Comp % | Yds/Att | Sack % | Yds/Scrm | < 2.5 sec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 0.43 | 60.2% | 7.8 | 6.8% | 19.2 | 48.0% |
| 2020 | 0.08 | 64.0% | 7.3 | 5.7% | 7.5 | 48.0% |
| 2021 | -0.32 | 59.5% | 5.8 | 13.7% | 3.0 | 49.2% |
| 2022 | 0.02 | 60.7% | 6.9 | 8.5% | 10.5 | 41.5% |
| 2023 | -0.04 | 51.8% | 8.1 | 10.3% | 4.6 | 54.1% |
| 2024 | 0.31 | 69.6% | 9.7 | 1.8% | 13.0 | 53.6% |
The Bucs will also be without their No. 1 corner for this game, as Jamel Dean remains out. Zay Flowers has been the intended target on 20 of Jackson's 56 attempts when blitzed, and he has 14 receptions for 196 yards -- an average of 14.0 per catch. Flowers has emerged as by far Jackson's top option, and he has ripped off back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time in his career. With the state of Tampa's pass defense, it could be another big game for him on the perimeter.
In other words, you can't let the Ravens run the ball, because they are too good at it. If you stack the box, they can throw it over the top. If you blitz, they will burn you. And that's if your defense is really good at all of those things. But the Bucs have issues in each area. It could be a very big night for Baltimore.
Bet Lamar Jackson props at FanDuel
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Mayfield has played quite well so far this season. He's completed 70.9% of his passes at an average of 7.9 yards per attempt, and through Week 6 he was 10th in the NFL in EPA per dropback, via Tru Media. He's getting the ball out quickly in offensive coordinator Liam Coen's offense (55.6% of his passes have been thrown within 2.5 seconds of the snap, the single-highest mark in the NFL) and letting his pass-catchers go to work with the ball in their hands.
While the Bucs have been regularly ripping off big plays, Mayfield's average throw has traveled only 5.6 yards downfield -- 2 full yards shorter than the league average. His receivers are averaging 7.1 yards after catch per completion, though, which is the third-highest mark in the league and has resulted in 63.6% of Mayfield's passing yards being created after the catch, which is the second-highest share in the NFL.
Some of this is because Mayfield has been blitzed at the NFL's fifth-highest rate, via Tru Media. But he has torn apart those blitzes, with a 77.3% completion rate, 9.3 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns and not a single interception. Baltimore, under new defensive coordinator Zach Orr, has really dialed down its blitz rate this year, though, and whether Baker can sit in the pocket for more time and pick apart zones will be something to watch out for.
Bet Baker Mayfield props at DraftKings
The Ravens defense has been league-average in terms of allowing yards after catch, ranking 16th in YAC per completion. Whether Chris Godwin, in particular, can shake free of tight coverage from Kyle Hamilton in the slot and create some yards on his own will be important in this game, as will whether Rachaad White (if he's active), Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker can do the same when Mayfield checks down to them or they get involved in the screen game. Baltimore's linebackers are good in space, but they have actually yielded the most yards per pass on opponent screens in the league. The 21 screen passes they've faced have yielded 205 yards for an average of 9.9 per attempt.
It's especially important that the YAC component of Tampa's offense show up here, because the Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL. Baltimore has yielded just 3.0 yards per carry and 0.93 yards before contact per carry, figures that check in first and second in the league, respectively. Tampa has really only found success running the ball when handing it to Irving or Tucker, but White still figures to get the most snaps because of his involved (and effective) he is in the pass game, and that means the rushing attack is even less likely to find success.
Prediction: Ravens 33, Buccaneers 27
The Bucs should be able to put some points on the board, but the Ravens just have way too many advantages on the offensive side of the ball. The idea that Tampa will be able to stop either Henry or Jackson doesn't pass the smell test given the way both of these units are playing so far, and in a matchup of "who can score more points," you bet on the better offense and better quarterback.
Bonus: Mike Tierney, who is 50-22-2 on his past 74 picks involving the Ravens, has released his pick for Monday night. Tierney is leaning the Over total but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at Sportsline.
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