Let's hope Jayden Daniels can play against Caleb Williams and the Bears in Week 8, just for the pure magnitude of the game if the two square off against each other.
The quarterbacks will forever be tied to one another as the first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Even if the Commanders do make a decision with the long view in mind and sit Daniels -- no one should fault them if they do err on the side of caution -- now is the perfect time to compare Williams and Daniels as we near the midway point of their respective rookie seasons in the NFL.
In my Scouting Gradebook, these are the top three categories (by importance and weight) at the quarterback position: Accuracy, athleticism and arm strength. Let's use those categories while layering in key NFL performance metrics to expand on how each has played to date early in their respective NFL careers.
Accuracy
By the advanced numbers, Daniels has been more accurate than Williams entering Week 8, but not by as much of a margin as you might think, especially considering the difference in average distance each has thrown the football. Daniels' adjusted completion percentage of 80.7% is best among all qualifying quarterbacks, and Williams' 76.1% is 16th.
Daniels' average depth of target (aDOT) is 7.7 yards, and just 10.1% of his attempts have been 20 or more yards downfield. Williams' aDOT is currently 8.1 yards, tied for the 15th-highest in football, and 13.6% of his throws have been "deep" targets.
In watching all of Daniels and Williams' NFL dropbacks to date, observationally, it has felt like Daniels has been more accurate with the football in general, although of late Williams has thrown with more precision than he did in the first few weeks. Then again, the original game plans for each quarterback could not have been more divergent. And Williams' misses have been more egregious.
Advantage: Push
Athleticism
Based on what they demonstrated in college, this was an easy "Advantage: Daniels" before their final seasons -- and would've been afterward, too.
These are just two types of athletes from a functioning within the offense perspective. The sleeker Daniels has legitimate designed-run capabilities because of his explosiveness and elite long speed. He can break off 50-yard runs like he did a week ago before getting injured.
Williams isn't a brutal athlete, he's just a different type than Daniels. Where Daniels is fast, Williams has short-area suddenness. He's keenly aware of oncoming rushers from all angles and has the juice to evade them in most scenarios. But the No. 1 overall pick has quickly discovered that those oncoming rushers close faster and are way more fluid than they were in the Pac-12 over the past two years at USC. His pressure-to-sack rate is currently a sizable 27.8%. Daniels' is 19.7%
Daniels is more of an explosive athlete, but Williams has above-average functional athleticism needed to play quarterback in the NFL at a high level.
Advantage: Daniels
Arm strength
This is a challenging comparison, because the ball jumps out of the hands of Williams and Daniels. Before the draft, I gave Williams a higher grade in his department, and while Daniels can spin it, I don't think he can drive the football as effortlessly as his Bears counterpart from inside the pocket. While on the run, this race is tighter, and I could be convinced Daniels consistently generates more power on the mobile throws.
Because the quarterback position is mostly played from between the tackles, I'm giving Williams the slight edge here. Important disclaimer though -- both Daniels and Williams have high-caliber albeit non-elite arms.
Advantage: Williams
Clean-pocket play
No quarterback statistic has stronger predictive powers than clean-pocket play. A quarterback who routinely wins from the pocket, without pressure around him, typically continues that winning into the future.
When not pressured, Williams has a Big-Time Throw rate of 3.1% to a 2.4% Turnover-Worthy Play rate. His yards-per-attempt average is a respectable 7.4, he's been accurate on 79.3% of his throws with a 7.2 yard aDOT and five touchdowns to two interceptions. Starting with his first 300-yard performance in the NFL -- a narrow Week 3 loss to the Colts -- Williams has done a reasonable job generating splash plays through the air for Chicagos' offense.
Daniels has taken a more conservative route with efficiency a top priority. His adjusted completion percentage is a massive 85.3% in these scenarios, but his aDOT is only 6.1 yards with a lower BTT rate (2.1%) and TWP rate (1.3%) than Williams. I do believe Stroud's offensive scheme and skill-position talent have provided him with noticeably more open looks than Williams, which must be considered here.
Advantage: Push
Under-pressure play
While not incredibly predictive year over year, in a given season, strong under-pressure play is undeniably valuable to an offense. In almost every case, rookie quarterbacks battle through major growing pains in this area. And, frankly, Daniels has been much more calm, cool, and collected here.
Williams' yards-per-attempt average of 4.0 currently ranks 34th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks. Daniels' YPA of 7.8 is fourth-best. They each have a pair of big-time throws under pressure, but Williams has five turnover-worthy plays to Daniels' three.
While watching all their drop backs, it's been obvious Williams has attempted to pull off the miraculous off-structure play more frequently than Daniels, which is part play style and part scheme circumstance. Williams has played about as as expected for a rookie under pressure to date, while Daniels have been one of the more effective quarterbacks while pressured in football. And his running capabilities have been the ideal crutch in many of those scenarios.
Advantage: Daniels
Summary
The classic box score stats would scream that Daniels has been operating on another planet than Williams, and, yes, I'd agree Daniels has been the better quarterback entering Week 8. But you didn't come here to read that Daniels' statistics are better than Williams'. I, hopefully have provided insightful context. These are two drastically different offenses, with wildly different receiver skill sets, and offensive coordinator ideologies.
The Bears put a lot on Williams' plate instantly. He was forcing the football downfield from the jump, dealing with an astronomical amount of pressure, and while Keenan Allen missed games with an injury, the Bears pass-catching contingent struggled to get open on a routine basis.
As for Daniels, Air Raid connoisseur Kliff Kingsbury has developed for him an incredibly quarterback-friendly offense. Beyond that, Washington currently has four receivers (!) in Average Separation Score" on FantasyPoints.com. Chicago's top receivers are ranked 19th (Allen), 60th (D.J. Moore), and Rome Odunze (70th) among 176 receivers who've run at least 75 routes to date.
And if we're looking at trends, Williams' alarming start has dissipated. He's gradually crescendoed since Week 2, and had a dazzling 23 of 29, 273-yard, four-score, one-interception against the Jaguars in London before the Week 7 bye.
Daniels is "ahead" now, and we'll continue to be tracking the first two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft as they venture through the second half of their professional seasons.
"I think stylistically, there's a lot more that is similar instead of how they're different," NFL on CBS lead play-by-play voice Jim Nantz said. "They both can move around. They both have great arms, they both can improvise. They both can extend plays, they both can buy time to make a pass play happen. I'm just very excited about this matchup."
