At Week 4 of this NFL season, it's still early. But it's getting late real early in Jacksonville.
The 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars were allegedly the best team assembled in franchise history, according to team owner Shad Khan ahead of this season. But both sides of the ball rank toward the bottom in the league, and the Jags are coming off an ugly 37-point loss in prime time to an AFC contender Khan thought his team should be.
People around the league are bracing for changes in Jacksonville if the Jags can't begin to right the ship soon, but several sources who spoke to CBS Sports this week issued words of caution regarding what moves, exactly, the team could make at this point.
Much of the discussion around the Jaguars has centered on head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor. While the relationship between those two has been strong for years, sources point to a strained relationship between Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke, as well as misalignment from owner to GM and head coach, as other causes of dysfunction.
"If you fire Doug and Press, you have no one to run the team and build the game plan," said one source.
Taylor, believed to be the main offensive play-caller, began working with Pederson when the head coach took over in Philadelphia in 2016. Pederson's loyalty to Taylor and refusal to fire him was part of the reasoning behind the Eagles firing Pederson after the 2020 season. And when Pederson got the Jaguars gig in 2022, he brought on Taylor as his offensive coordinator.
The 2024 Jaguars have yet to score more than 17 points in a game, and they've registered four offensive touchdowns through 12 quarters of play with the 30th-ranked scoring offense. But the rushing attack has been effective when Jacksonville can go to it.
They Jaguars are averaging 5.4 yards per carry, third-best in the league behind the Ravens and Packers, and a full yard above league average. But their 64 rush attempts are fourth-fewest in the league.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence signed a franchise-record five-year, $275 million contract in the offseason, but many agree his play has been holding the Jaguars back. He has struggled mightily with accuracy. His completion percentage over expectation, which looks at expected completions compared to actual completions, is negative 8.9%. That's third-worst in the league among qualified passers and behind second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson and benched quarterback Bryce Young.
"Normally when you give the quarterback the extension after year 3, they play with tremendous confidence the next year," one source said. "It's the team saying, 'We believe in you, we're buying into you. He's not playing like they invested in him."
Said another source: "If you watch the games, there are situations where the balls are not on anybody."
Pederson could always take more control in play-calling -- something he has been hesitant to do -- but sources threw cold water on Taylor going anywhere because of how integral he is to the weekly preparation.
"No one on staff can replace what Press does for him," said one source.
Indeed, whether it's an interim head coach or a different coordinator, there is no obvious choice for either on the Jaguars staff. Former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is on staff as the quarterbacks coach, but he hasn't coordinated an offense since 2018 when he had the last-ranked Cardinals offense sputter to his own mid-season firing.
"I understand everyone's narrative would be to fire Press," said a source. "But even from a practical standpoint, I don't know how you successfully game plan if you fire him. You're wasting [Lawrence's] season by doing that."
Lawrence could also be feeling the effects of absences around him. Calvin Ridley signed with the Titans in the offseason, and Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury that will likely turn into a third missed game.
The Jags defense has also struggled, giving up the fourth-most points in the league -- though much of that came Monday night in the blowout in Western New York.
Baalke has been the GM since 2021. He and Pederson navigated the post-Urban Meyer tenure to get the Jags to the playoffs in 2022, and moves like inking Christian Kirk to a market-beating deal and locking in Engram have helped the franchise.
But his decision to take Travon Walker No. 1 overall in 2022 over Aidan Hutchinson has proved costly for the franchise.
Since entering the league, Hutchinson ranks 10th in quarterback pressures (150) and is tied with T.J. Watt and Khalil Mack for the seventh-most sacks (27.5). Walker is tied for 37th in sacks with 15.5, and his 101 pressures rank outside the top 40.
One source with knowledge of the dynamic between Pederson and Baalke called the working relationship "a marriage of convenience."
For as hands-off as Khan has appeared to be in his leadership of the organization, few NFL team owners have been as active in hiring and firing coaches as he. Since Khan took over at the end of the 2011 season, he has hired five different head coaches. Twice he has handed out pink slips within one season, including what is arguably the most disastrous single-season coaching tenure in modern NFL history with Meyer.
Only the Browns and Broncos have had more head coaches since Khan became owner of the Jaguars. And Pederson will likely need to turn things around this season to avoid Jacksonville from pulling even with those two franchises for that distinction.