One of the biggest games of Week 18 will be taking place in Denver, where the Broncos will be hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that means everything for one team and nothing for the other.
If the Broncos win, they'll clinch their first playoff spot since 2015, which would end the NFL's second-longest active postseason drought. On the other hand, if the Broncos lose, that would open the door for the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals to sneak in and steal the final playoff spot in the AFC.
On the Chiefs' end, they've already clinched the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, so they have nothing to play for.
With the Chiefs planning to rest most of their starters this week, the Broncos might feel like a lock in this game, but anyone who has watched the NFL long enough knows there's no such thing as a lock in this league.
Although the Chiefs are a 9.5-point underdog to Denver, they've been in this situation before under Andy Reid and they've actually done quite well. The Chiefs have benched their starters in the final week of the season a total of four times since Reid became coach in 2013 and they've gone 2-2 in those games (and 3-1 against the spread).
Let's take a look at the four games when Kansas City rested its starters:
2013: Chargers 27-24 in OT over Chiefs (Chiefs were 14.5-point underdogs)
2017: Chiefs 27-24 over Broncos (Chiefs were 3-point underdogs)
2020: Chargers 38-21 over Chiefs (Chiefs were 7-point underdogs)
2023: Chiefs 13-12 over Chargers (Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs)
The 2013 game is the one that's the most similar to what we'll see this week: The Chargers needed a win to make the playoffs and the Chiefs had nothing to play for. The Chargers were favored by 14.5 points, which still stands as the largest point spread the Chiefs have faced as an underdog in Reid's 12 seasons with the team.
Although the Chiefs had every reason to lose that game, they actually led 24-14 with 12 minutes left to play in the fourth quarter and they would have won if Ryan Succop didn't miss a 41-yard field goal with just eight seconds left to play.
Flashing back to Chiefs kicker Ryan Succop missing a 41 yard field goal in 2013 that would've beaten the Chargers and put the Steelers into the playoffs at 8-8. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/QXOlZI3E7V
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) January 10, 2022
If Succop converted his kick, the Steelers would have made the playoffs, but the Chargers ended up winning in overtime, which sent them to the postseason. This time around, we have another AFC North team (Bengals) hoping that the Chiefs can summon some of their 2013 magic, except with a win at the end instead of an overtime loss.
Reid has already said that Carson Wentz will be starting on Sunday, which means Patrick Mahomes will be on the bench. However, this is the NFL, so you can't bench everyone. With only 53 players on the roster, there will be some regular starters playing on Sunday, just like there were last year when the Chiefs beat the Chargers 13-12 in Week 18 in a game where the Chiefs were a 3.5-point underdog.
In the graphic below, you can see who might be on the field for the Chiefs this week.
#Chiefs HC Andy Reid mentioned that the game plan for Week 18 this year, in terms of who starts, who sits, and who rotates in, could mimic what they did last season. Here's a quick reminder of who started that game and who subbed in for Kansas City. pic.twitter.com/2mR4XZbKB6
— Charles Goldman (@goldmctNFL) January 1, 2025
Although a win could put the Bengals (or Dolphins) in the playoffs, Reid doesn't seem to be thinking much about that. Reid has proven that he's going to put his players in the best position to succeed whether the starters are out there or not.
The fact that Wentz will be Kansas City's starting quarterback on Sunday could be a good thing for the Bengals and Dolphins, because he has a lot to prove and he'll likely be playing with a chip on his shoulder. This game will mark just the second start for Wentz since the beginning of the 2023 season.
"I'm going to prepare to go out there and win and then have a good performance with this offense," Wentz said this week, via ESPN.com. "I got one shot last year and so for me it's just not taking these chances for granted and having fun with it [and] cutting it loose."
That one shot last year also came in a regular-season finale. Wentz was playing for the Rams and he led them to a Week 18 win over the 49ers in a game where Los Angeles was a 4-point underdog. Basically, Wentz and Reid both have plenty of experience when it comes to winning meaningless games at the end of the season.
The Bengals and Dolphins will need a miracle win by the Chiefs to have a shot at the playoffs and it's a miracle that Kansas City might actually be able to pull off.
