The 49ers are coming off their bye and kicking off the second half of their season at the Buccaneers on Sunday. Don't let their slow start fool you. Even at 4-4, the 49ers still have the second-best Super Bowl odds in the NFC behind the Lions. Here's why we can expect them to make another late-season run and contend for a Super Bowl.
Christian McCaffrey nearing return
Christian McCaffrey is nearing a return and could play in Week 10 barring any setbacks from Achilles tendinitis in both legs as he ramps up his workload in practice this week. It's still a big question mark if he will be able to return, how long he can hold up and how effective he will be. But, in a perfect world, the 49ers could be getting back last year's Offensive Player of the Year at near full strength.
In case you forgot what a game-changer he is, let me remind you. He has the fourth-highest scrimmage yards per game average in NFL history (115.4) and led or co-led the NFL in scrimmage yards (2,023), rush yards (1,459) and touchdowns (21) last year.
What a difference he would be in the lineup. The 49ers are 22-5 with McCaffrey in the last three seasons and 7-8 without him.
49ers with/without Christian McCaffrey since 2022
| With | Without | |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 22-5 | 7-8 |
PPG | 29.6 | 23.5 |
PPG diff | +12.4 | +4.0 |
San Francisco has also really missed McCaffrey this year. The 49ers are 27th in red zone efficiency after ranking first last year. They've had a tough time punching it in without McCaffrey, who is an underrated tough runner between the tackles and a chess piece in the passing game.
The 49ers offense also sorely missed his explosiveness after the catch. San Francisco ranks 25th in yards after catch per reception this season (4.9) after leading the league in an NFL-record six straight seasons.
49ers are a second-half team
McCaffrey could provide a jolt in the second half of the season just like he did in 2022 when he was acquired near the trade deadline. San Francisco went 10-0 in the 2022 regular season after McCaffrey's first start.
That's been the tip of the iceberg for the 49ers, who are developing a reputation as a slow starter and strong finisher. They are 16-16 in Weeks 1-9 in the last four seasons but an NFL-best 23-4 the rest of the way. They started 3-5 in 2021, 3-4 in 2022 and 5-3 in 2023 before making the NFC title game each year.
49ers last four seasons
| Weeks 1-9 | Weeks 10-18 | |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 16-16 | 23-4 |
PPG | 24.7 | 29.2 |
PPG diff | +3.7 | +12.5 |
The torrid play down the stretch has especially been true once the calendar flips to November. San Francisco tied an NFL record by winning 17 straight regular-season games in November or later. It was snapped with an Week 18 loss vs. the Rams last season when they were resting starters.
And the bye week could continue to be the catalyst for the 49ers second-half surges. This is the third straight season the 49ers have a Week 9 bye. They are 16-2 after the bye in the previous two seasons, which includes a perfect 9-0 in 2022 and a 6-game win streak (all by 12+ points) out of the bye in 2023.
Dominant start
The 49ers are a few plays away from being 6-2 after blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads to the Rams and Cardinals. They've still spent the fourth-most time leading this season (4:38:40) entering Week 9 behind the Vikings (5:02:30), Packers (4:52:31) and Texans (4:43:50). McCaffrey's return should help them finish drives and close games, especially vs. inferior teams.
Purdy playing good ball
Another reason to be optimistic about the 49ers contending for a fourth straight NFC title game appearance is the improvement of Brock Purdy, which should only accelerate with McCaffrey coming back.
Purdy ranks a respectable 11th in EPA per play and third in yards per attempt (8.7) this year despite McCaffrey's absence and injuries to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle throughout the year.
Only 36% of Purdy's pass yards have come from YAC this year, the lowest rate in the NFL. He also leads the NFL in completions 15+ yards downfield (34) and has even added a new weapon to his arsenal. He has scrambled for 15 first downs this year, which was tied with Jayden Daniels for most in the league entering the 49ers' Week 9 bye.
Purdy is elevating the rest of his team more than in the past which bodes well for when the team is actually at full strength (mostly) around him.
Promising rookie class
San Francisco also has a promising rookie class that is providing critical depth and can make meaningful plays down the stretch. First-round pick Ricky Pearsall will be crucial in filling the void left by Aiyuk's injury (as will wide receiver Jauan Jennings). Pearsall has struggled to create separation through two games which is understandable as he's working his way back into game shape after being shot in the chest (and miraculously recovering) before the season started. If this type of chemistry with Purdy is any indication, he's going to play a big role in the second half.
The five players selected after Pearsall could also play a major role in the 49ers stretch run. Second-round pick Renardo Green is the 49ers' third cornerback on the depth chart and has the sixth-highest grade at the position this year per PFF.
Third-round pick Dominick Puni has the 11th-best grade among guards this year (PFF) and has played all but one snap this season. Fourth-round pick Malik Mustapha is filling in for Talanoa Hufanga as he is on injured reserve with torn ligaments in his wrist. Plus, fourth-round pick Isaac Guerendo could also be important if McCaffrey has a setback.
Not so fast though
If the 49ers trend of second-half surges ends in 2024, it'll be for a few reasons. They still play one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL, which includes road games at the Packers, Bills and a Dolphins team with Tua Tagovailoa back. They also host the Lions in an NFC title game rematch in Week 17.
Injuries could also continue to throw a wrench in their plans. Nobody would be surprised if McCaffrey had a setback. Aiyuk's injury looms large and there's no guarantee that Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) or Talanoa Hufanga (torn ligaments in wrist) make an impact in their efforts to return later this month.
If San Francisco doesn't make a run it could come down to the little things, too. They rank 30th in special teams EPA this year including 31st in yards per punt return allowed and 27th in yards per kick return allowed. Those are the types of things that haunt teams in close games. The 49ers have already blown the same number of double-digit fourth-quarter leads as the rest of the NFL combined (two) and they nearly blew a 17-point lead late vs. Dallas in Week 8.
Plus, as good as Purdy has been, he's still shaky at times when the game script doesn't go his way and the 49ers are undermanned. He has three touchdown passes and 12 interceptions in his regular-season career when tied or trailing in the second half. He may have been down his top three receivers vs. the Chiefs, but some of those interceptions were atrocious.
Despite those early-season struggles Purdy and the 49ers are still primed to contend for their first Super Bowl since 1994. Don't be surprised to see them flip the switch again in a winnable division, especially if McCaffrey returns to MVP form in the second half of the year.