Where: Ford Field, Detroit (indoors, turf)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Lions by 5
Records: Colts (Overall: 7-4, AFC South: 2-1); Lions (Overall: 4-7, NFC North: 0-4)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 14, 2008: Colts 31, Lions 21; Nov. 25, 2004: Colts 41, Lions 9. Series record: Colts lead 20-18-2.
What matters: Though the Colts have -- to the surprise of many -- positioned themselves well in terms of a playoff berth, they have not been particularly good on the road. The Lions, on the other hand, are desperate for a win. It may not be a playoff atmosphere, but Detroit is a talented team that simply can't afford to lose. At the very least it will be a barometer for a Colts team that has been blasted on the road by the Bears, Jets, and Patriots. And, chances are, Indianapolis will be on the road on the playoffs.
Who matters: Lions WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson has been white-hot for the past month, evidenced by his winning NFC offensive player of the month for November. In four games last month, Johnson had 32 catches for 619 yards and three scores -- an average of better than 154 yards per game. On the flip side, the Colts allowed a 100-yard receiver in each game last month.
Key matchup: Colts secondary vs. Johnson. The Colts haven't been great this year at defending the pass -- Indy ranks in the bottom half of the league in pass defense -- and they'll be short in the secondary, with starting corner Jerraud Powers out and perhaps starting safety Tom Zbikowski (knee) and opposite corner Vontae Davis (knee) sitting, as well. Regardless of who is in the secondary, though, Johnson presents a monumental challenge. The more success he and quarterback Matthew Stafford have shredding the Colts defense, the more running lanes will open up for bruising running back Mikel Leshoure.
Injuries of note: Despite being hobbled, it looks as if the Colts will have Davis back in the secondary. And they'll need him, because Zbikowski seems like a long shot to play. Indy should also get tight end Coby Fleener (shoulder) back after the rookie missed the past four games.
Inside stuff: Leshoure could be in line for a big game. With all the Colts attention likely focused on Johnson, Leshoure -- who is built similarly to backs that have given Indy problems -- could end up being the offensive star for Detroit. That is, of course, if he plays. Leshoure has been limited in practice this week with an ankle injury.
Connections: Colts general manager Ryan Grigson played for Detroit in the mid-'90s, and both defensive end Cory Redding and backup quarterback Drew Stanton also spent time with the Lions.
Stat you should know: The Colts scoring defense has considerably improved. Over the past six games, the Indianapolis defense has allowed 17.8 points per game. That's a vast improvement from the 29 points per outing the D gave up in its first five games.
Record watch: With his fourth 100-yard receiving game, T.Y. Hilton will become the first Colts rookie in history to achieve such a feat. Andre Rison had three in 1989. Also Reggie Wayne needs just six catches to move to tenth all time in receptions.
Looking ahead: The Colts return home next week for a divisional game against the Titans before heading south for the first of two games in three weeks with the Texans.
Prediction: Lions 30, Colts 27
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Colts blogger Evan Hilbert, follow @CBSColts.
