Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston (retractable roof, grass)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Texans by 9
Records: Colts (9-4, AFC South 3-1); Texans (11-2, AFC South 4-0)
Past results: Three most recent meetings -- Dec. 22, 2011: Colts 19, Texans 16; Sept. 11, 2011: Texans 34, Colts 7; Nov. 1, 2010: Colts 30, Texans 17. Series record: Colts lead 17-3.
What matters: Believe it or not, the Colts still have a real chance to sneak up and win the division. With two games with the Texans remaining -- and a matchup at Kansas City sandwiched between -- Indianapolis can make a quick move past Houston. Of course, the Colts will have to win at Houston to make this scenario most plausible. Still, a win Sunday would guarantee Indy a playoff spot.
Who matters: With running back Donald Brown being placed on injured reserve, there is now no question that the rushing attack falls on rookie Vick Ballard. Over the past two games, Ballard is averaging nearly five yards per carry -- almost twice his average early in the season. Indianapolis would prefer better offensive balance -- especially come playoff time -- so the onus doesn't fall so heavily on Andrew Luck. Ballard is a capable back, but the run game has been below average to this point. The additions of veterans Mewelde Moore and Deji Karim this week -- along with Delone Carter -- are meant to stabilize the backfield and give Ballard the opportunity for rest.
Key matchups: Andre Johnson vs. Colts secondary. The Indianapolis defensive backfield has been shredded the last few weeks, facing the likes of Calvin Johnson, Steve Johnson, and Kenny Britt. They'll have another stiff challenge Sunday against Andre Johnson, whose production is often supplemented by running back Arian Foster. The Texans offense possesses the two weapons that have caused the most trouble to the Colts defense -- a big, physical receiver and a power run game.
Injuries of note: It's not looking good for the Indianapolis offensive line, since both Samson Satele (knee) and Winston Justice (bicep) missed practice Thursday. Safety Tom Zbikowski (knee) and linebacker Kavell Conner (hamstring) also sat out.
Connections: Colts defensive coordinator Greg Manusky and Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips coached together in San Diego. Manusky also coached with Texans defensive backs coach Vance Joseph in San Francisco. Houston could know what to look for in the Colts defense.
Stat you should know: The Colts are 8-1 in games decided by seven points or less. The positive, of course, is that Indy -- a young team -- has been able pull out tight games. The negative, however, is that the Colts haven't been able to have many (one) victories.
Record watch: Andrew Luck will be gunning for Cam Newton's rookie passing yards record Sunday. With 260 yards, Luck will break Newton's record of 4,051 passing yards for a rookie.
Looking ahead: The Colts head to Kansas City and the Texans welcome Minnesota next week, before Indy and Houston meet again in both teams' finale in Indianapolis.
Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 20
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Colts blogger Evan Hilbert, follow @CBSColts.
