Still wearing his sweat-drenched, grass-stained uniform after the Commanders' impossibly miraculous win over the Bears on Sunday, jubilant Washington receiver Terry McLaurin, in the team's joyous locker room, asked the question that has become de rigueur for teams after big wins: "Who's got it better than us?" he screamed to no one in particular. "Nooobody!"
Indeed, after the Commanders' stunning 18-15 win over Chicago on a game-ending Hail Mary touchdown, no one in the NFC East has got it better than Washington. One season after the Commanders finished 4-13 and tied for the second-worst record in the NFL, they lead the division at 6-2. The Eagles (5-2) sit a half game behind, while the Cowboys (3-4) and Giants (2-6) are well back in the upside-down NFC East.
Washington has had a dream start to its season, and according to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Commanders have more than a Hail Mary's chance to pull off another miracle: win the Super Bowl. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says Washington has an 8.5% chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy. That's the fifth-best probability in the league, behind only the Chiefs (17.2%), Bills (16.1%), Lions (11.9%) and Ravens (10.8%).
After factoring in the DraftKings' Super Bowl futures odds, the Commanders are just one of four teams that offer wagering value. At +2528 to win the Super Bowl (implied odds of 3.8%), Washington offers 4.7% value. That ranks second behind only Buffalo (6.6%).
| Team | Super Bowl odds | Implied odds | Simulation | Value |
| Bills | +957 | 9.5% | 16.1% | 6.6% |
| Commanders | +2528 | 3.8% | 8.5% | 4.7% |
| Bears | +5750 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Packers | +1471 | 6.4% | 6.7% | 0.3% |
There are two main reasons why the model is high on the Commanders. The first is the improved defense. Washington is giving up just 20.9 points per game, which ranks 10th in the league. The unit was the worst in the NFL last season, allowing 30.5 points per game.
In addition, the Commanders have one of the easier remaining schedules in the NFL. According to Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, Washington's remaining opponents have a simulation power of 48%. By contrast the remaining opponents for the Lions, who lead the NFC at 6-1, have a simulation power of 57%, the highest in the league.
"The Lions are better [than the Commanders], but with Detroit's league-high remaining opponent simulation power percentage, Washington still has a chance at getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC," Oh says.
After Washington's win on Sunday, Commanders tight end Zach Ertz was asked about the effect the victory could have on the rest of the team's season.
"I'm not concerned about guys taking this and saying, 'We're on top of the world,'" he said. "We're 6-2 right now. We've got a lot of football in front of us and a great opportunity to play the Giants next week."
As for the Commanders' Week 9 game on Sunday against the Giants, the SportsLine Projection Model is saying that one team covers almost 70% of the time. However, that game isn't the one with an A-grade spread pick based on model simulations for Week 9. You can find those top-tier Week 9 NFL picks at SportsLine.