The Washington Commanders got out to an incredibly hot start to the season, with Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels leading an explosive offense and engineering several blowout wins, in addition to pulling out some close games. In recent weeks, though, the offense has slowed down, with Washington scoring fewer than 20 points in two of its last four games after not doing so at all through the first seven weeks of the season.
On Thursday, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury was asked by local media about the tendency of his offenses to decline over the second half of the season. Kingsbury mostly dismissed those concerns, and also indicated that he doesn't have any specific designs on reversing the trend.
"I would have to see what you're talking about historically, references," Kingsbury said, via The Athletic. "But, I don't have any plans to do anything to break that trend that I know of. I would have to see what years you're talking about."
Well, Kliff, I can show you exactly what everyone is talking about. If you split out the performances of Kingsbury's offenses in each of his five NFL seasons (as Cardinals head coach from 2019 through 2022, and as Washington's offensive coordinator in 2024) by month, you can see that in almost every season, his teams have dramatically fallen off as the months have gone by.
| Yds/Game | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 326.3 | 406.3 | 432.3 | 353.3 | 382.3 |
| October | 359.0 | 428.8 | 370.4 | 343.4 | 410.3 |
| November | 341.5 | 376.8 | 339.7 | 310.0 | 288.0 |
| December | 336.8 | 374.5 | 370.0 | 296.0 | ? |
| January | -- | 214.0 | 352.0 | 297.0 | ? |
| Points/Game | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 |
| September | 18.5 | 25.7 | 32.0 | 18.7 | 30.2 |
| October | 24.2 | 31.5 | 28.6 | 20.0 | 27.0 |
| November | 26.5 | 25.3 | 21.3 | 18.8 | 24.0 |
| December | 22.6 | 24.3 | 21.0 | 14.7 | ? |
| January | -- | 7.0 | 24.0 | 16.0 | ? |
| EPA/Drive | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 |
| September | -0.24 | -0.07 | 0.56 | 0.22 | 1.99 |
| October | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.65 | -0.26 | 0.47 |
| November | -0.02 | 0.35 | 0.10 | -0.21 | 0.08 |
| December | -0.07 | -0.74 | -0.12 | -1.49 | ? |
| January | -- | -1.82 | 0.12 | -0.88 | ? |
Kingsbury explained the recent performances by noting that Washington had played against some tough defenses, which is true. Bears, Steelers and Eagles in a four-week span is tough. But that wouldn't explain the tendency that has persisted throughout his career, which is the more relevant concern here.
The good news for his team is that the upcoming schedule is much friendlier. Over the final six games, the Commanders play the Cowboys twice (including this Sunday), along with the Titans, Saints and Falcons. They have another game left against the Eagles, but otherwise don't figure to be too heavily disadvantaged. So, we'll be able to rather easily see whether Kingsbury's lack of concern about this issue is justified.