The Sunday slate for Week 5 ends in Santa Clara where the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers will square off in primetime. This has the makings of a potential NFC Championship preview and these two historic franchises already have plenty of recent playoff history with San Francisco ousting the Cowboys from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. Now, Dallas comes into this game at 3-1 after a blowout win over the Patriots and the Niners sit at 4-0 and have scored at least 30 points in each of their games thus far, so we should be in for quite the showdown.
Here, we're going to take a look at this game from a gambling perspective. We'll look at the line movement leading up to Thursday, the total, and dive into a handful of player props. Before we do, let's make sure you know how to watch this prime-time head-to-head.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 8 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara)
TV: NBC | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: 49ers -3.5, O/U 45
Injury report
- Cowboys: TE Peyton Hendershot (ankle) OUT, LB Damone Clark (shoulder) QUESTIONABLE
- 49ers: RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) OUT; C Jon Feliciano (concussion) QUESTIONABLE
Line movement
There has been some movement with this line but it has firmly stayed at least a field-goal game. The line opened at 49ers -3.5 and has volleyed around that half-point to 49ers -3 at times and even jumped to 49ers -4 in some places.
The pick: 49ers -3.5. Both of these teams have been stellar to bet on through the first month of the year, but I'm going to lean toward the home team even if we are giving up the field goal plus the hook. San Francisco looks like a clear tier above every team in the league at the moment and boasts a sturdy defense on top of an offense that has yet to score less than 30 points per game. For Dallas, I have concerns that this might be a tough spot for them and a possible letdown after destroying the Patriots in Week 4. I also believe Christian McCaffrey will continue on his MVP pace against a Cowboys run defense that is sneakily giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season (26th in the NFL).
I'm pretty confident in my pick, but if you want another opinion, Sportsline's Micah Roberts is on an incredible 18-5 run on his last 23 picks involving San Francisco. We can tell you he's leaning Over the point total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a MUST-BACK! You ABSOLUTELY need to see what it is before locking in any picks of your own. I'd definitely click here to check them out.
Over/Under: 45
There has been no substantial line movement with the total.
The pick: Under 45. Yes, San Francisco has been allergic to going under 30 points so far this season, but this is a game that features arguably the top two defenses in the NFL and two-star running backs. I expect this to be a tight head-to-head with the defenses being the main story. In their divisional playoff game a year ago, these two teams combined for 31 points. In the Wild Card game during the 2021 season, they combined for 40 points.
Dak Prescott props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +108, Under -148)
Passing yards: 240.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing completions: 23.5 (Over +110, Under -151)
Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -142, Under +104)
Rushing yards: 12.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
You're certainly laying the juice, but history has shown us that Prescott is good for an interception in this head-to-head. In the previous two games he's faced the 49ers, Prescott has thrown three interceptions. With that in mind, we'll lean towards the Over on that prop and also look for him to go Under his passing touchdown prop. Through four games, Prescott has only had a multi-touchdown performance just once. Meanwhile, the 49ers are averaging just one passing touchdown per game this season.
Brock Purdy props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing yards: 243.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 30.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
Passing completions: 20.5 (Over -133, Under -103)
Longest passing completion: 37.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Interceptions: 0.5 (+123, Under -169)
Rushing yards: 6.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Purdy is coming off a two-week stretch where he is averaging nearly 300 passing yards per game (296.5). However, I think he goes below his passing yards prop on Sunday night in part because of the run-heavy approach I expect San Francisco to take. Also, the Cowboys apply pressure as well as anyone, leading the league in pressure rate entering Week 5. When the Cowboys were able to pressure Purdy during their playoff game last year, the 49ers quarterback averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt and had a 49.0 passer rating.
Props to consider
Christian McCaffrey total rushing yards: Over 77.5 (-121). McCaffrey has yet to go under this total this season and is now facing a Cowboys run defense that is allowing 5.7 yards per carry on the road this season.
Jake Ferguson total receptions: Over 3.5 (-129). Ferguson is the second-most targeted pass catcher in the Cowboys offense and is averaging 4.3 catches per game. He now faces a 49ers secondary that just allowed Zach Ertz to catch six of his 10 targets a week ago and Darren Waller even had three catches against this defense the week before that.
