FRISCO, Texas -- Week 12's edition of the Dallas Cowboys (3-7) at the Washington Commanders (7-4) is unlike any prior matchup in this storied NFC East rivalry.
Sunday will be the first meeting between those two squads in which the Cowboys will be at least three games under .500 and the Commanders will be at least three games over .500, per CBS Sports Research. It will also be the Dan Quinn reunion game as Week 12 will be the first time the Cowboys face the defensive coordinator from their three consecutive 12-win seasons from 2021 to 2023 when he stands on the opposite sidelines as Washington's head coach. In Quinn's three seasons, Dallas led the league in takeaways (93), interceptions (59), defensive touchdowns (15) and quarterback pressure rate (41.4%) while ranking fifth in scoring defense (19.9 points per game allowed).
"Just knowing Dan from across the way, I always had a ton of respect for him," Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said Tuesday. "It was awesome to have him here in Dallas. He's become a very good friend. I'm really happy for the success he's having. ... Dan does a great job connecting with people. He has a great personality. He did a great job for us, and he's doing a great job now."
Early on, there will very much be a feeling out process between the two sides to test what's changed and what remains the same from 2023.
"It's a unique thing because they know you and you know them," Cowboys offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said Tuesday. "Sometimes it's a little bit of gamesmanship in terms of,'Hey are you guys still doing that?' There's always some fun stuff that you do pregame, but once the ball is snapped, man, the game is the game."
Quinn will not be the sole ex-Cowboy on the Commanders sideline. He brought Cowboys defensive backs/passing game coordinator Joe Whitt with him by promoting him to the defensive coordinator role. Washington also signed center Tyler Biadasz, edge rusher Dorance Armstrong, edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. and cornerback Noah Igbinoghene in free agency to join Quinn in the nation's capital. Fowler, whose 8.5 sacks rank as the fifth most in the NFL this season, is thriving and on pace to eclipse his career-high sack total of 11.5 registered in 2019 with the Los Angeles Rams.
"We're going to have to block DA, and Dante's going to have to stop the run, and DQ and Joe are going to have to adjust to us," Schottenheimer said. "And then we'll have to adjust for them because they've actually had, they got the benefit because they've had a couple extra days to prepare for us. We got the Monday night game, they had the Thursday night game, so there'll be some different things that they have for us from a wrinkle standpoint, but you don't downplay it. It's also once the ball is kicked off, you just kind of play."
Can the Cowboys end their five-game losing streak, their longest since the 2015 season, against Quinn? Or will the Commanders bury Dallas further in the conference standings? Let's take a deep dive and pick a victor.
Cowboys vs. Commanders where to watch
Date: Sunday, Nov. 24 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Maryland)
Channel: FOX | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Sports betting odds: Commanders -10.5, O/U 44.5 (via FanDuel)
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When the Cowboys have the ball
Cowboys eight-year veteran backup Cooper Rush will make his third consecutive start following Dak Prescott's season-ending hamstring injury despite Dallas losing his first two starts of 2024 by a combined score of 68-16. That total comes from a 34-6 Week 10 home loss against the Philadelphia Eagles and Monday night's 34-10 home defeat against the Houston Texans in Week 11.
In his first start against the Eagles in 2024, Rush became just the third player in the last 20 years with over 20 pass attempts (23) and under 50 passing yards in a game (45), per CBS Sports Research. On Monday, Rush's counting stats improved: He threw for 354 yards (a career high), a touchdown (a 64-yard catch-and-run touchdown to KaVontae Turpin on a slant) and an interception on 32 of 55 passing.
However, Rush and CeeDee Lamb, who is in line to play after not having a game status after being listed on the injury report with a back and a foot injury, are still struggling to find on-field chemistry. Lamb has caught 14 of his 22 targets (63.6%) from Rush for 114 yards.
"Missed two passes I want to say as far as behind, but the rest were pretty good," Lamb said of Rush after the loss against the Texans. "I feel like he's going to be better as the season goes and progresses. You could tell that he's gotten better from week one to week two for him as far as starting. So the confidence is there for him, happy for him. Obviously, we're moving the ball, but at the end of the day, we still got to score. We still got to win the game. ... We [the Cowboys as a whole] haven't been putting our pieces together. We don't really have it figured out right now, and that sucks."
One thing Dallas could do Sunday to figure things out offensively is run the ball over and over and over and over again. Washington is allowing 150.5 rushing yards per game and five yards a carry, both of which rank as the third-worst in the entire NFL. In Week 11, the Eagles went off for 228 rushing yards against the Commanders. However, that's easier said than done with nine-time Pro Bowl right guard Zack Martin (ankle/shoulder) ruled out and Pro Bowl left guard Tyler Smith (ankle/knee) listed as questionable. That won't help a ground game that has averaged the second-fewest rushing yards per game (81.7) in the league this season. If Dallas is going to put up any kind of fight, that's where they have to win: up front. In three of the Commanders four losses this season, they have allowed at least 140 rushing yards.
When the Commanders have the ball
Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has 2024 No. 2 overall pick quarterback Jayden Daniels out to a strong start in his rookie year and list as the betting favorite (-400 per Caesars Sportsbook) to be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He's done that by putting Daniels in positions where playmaking is easy. Washington has a solid running back duo of Brian Robinson Jr. (524 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns on 117 carries) and Austin Ekeler (333 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on 65 carries). That's on top of a quarterback-friendly scheme that goes uptempo at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (33.9 seconds between snaps) while using screens on 14.8% of plays (the fifth-highest rate in the NFL) and play-action on 18.6% of plays (the third-highest rate in the NFL).
"I think the big thing is he's keeping them in clean plays," McCarthy said of Daniels. "I think uptempo definitely favors the offense. I think every offensive coordinator would like to play that way, so I think that part of it's been, it's been very helpful, but he's dynamic. You have to have that extra support element because of his threat of running the ball and his ability to throw on the move and be able to hit all the different quadrants of the field. I'm so impressed. Kliff [Kingsbury] throws a lot at you. He does a great job, so he's going to schematically stretch you, and Jayden's a big part of it."
| Washington Commanders offense this season | NFL Rank | |
|---|---|---|
PPG | 28.0 | 4th |
Total YPG | 366.7 | 6th |
Yards/play | 5.9 | 6th |
Rush YPG | 148.0 | 6th |
Tempo (average time between snaps, measured in seconds) | 33.9 | 4th-fastest |
Screen percentage | 14.8% | 5th |
| Play-action percentage | 18.6% | 3rd |
Three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons expects to see a heavy dose of screen plays Sunday, especially since Washington added Ekeler, one of the NFL's premier receiving running backs this past offseason. In his seven seasons with the Chargers from 2017-2023, Ekeler ranked third in catches (440), third in receiving yards (3,884) and first in receiving touchdowns (30) among running backs. He remains a volume pass-catcher among running backs in his first year with the Commanders with 31 catches (tied for the ninth-most among running backs) for 344 yards (the fifth-most among running backs) for a yards per catch average of 11.1 (the second-best among running backs behind only the Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs).
When Daniels looks to go deep downfield, he'll have a stiffer challenge than any opposing quarterback the Cowboys have faced this season with 2023 NFL interceptions leader DaRon Bland set to make his 2024 season debut on Sunday. He missed the first 10 games of the season while dealing with a stress fracture in his foot that he suffered during the final week of training camp, but he practiced every day this week in full and doesn't have a game status on the injury report. McCarthy said Bland came out of practice well Thursday and did everything once again Friday. Between his absence and other notable ones like four-time Pro Bowler DeMarcus Lawrence (foot injury, six games missed) and Parsons (high ankle sprain, four games missed) -- plus a longer than expected adjustment period to new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's scheme -- the Dallas defense hasn't been unable to find the same groove it had under Quinn. While they get Bland back Sunday, Trevon Diggs has been downgraded to out with groin and knee injuries.
| Scoring defenses | Cowboys | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
2023 PPG allowed | 18.5 (5th) | 30.5 (worst) |
2024 PPG allowed | 29.3 (31st) | 22.1 (14th) |
PPG allowed differential | +10.8 (worst) | -8.4 (second-best) |
Prediction
The Dallas defense should receive a boost from Bland's return and Parsons feeling stronger and stronger the further he is removed from his high-ankle sprain. However, the Rush-led offense just isn't scaring opposing defenses: Rush is averaging 5.1 yards per pass attempt, which is the fourth-lowest in the entire league since he was inserted into the starting lineup for the injured Prescott in Week 10. Daniels will lead Washington to an early, comfortable lead, and the Cowboys will tack on some points in garbage time to put lipstick on the pig that will be their sixth consecutive defeat.
Pick: Commanders 34, Cowboys 17