Not every first-round pick erupts out of the gate in the NFL. But it's the first-year glimmers that excite us as the youngsters prepare for Year 2 as professionals.
Which of the promising former first-round selections will parlay a solid start to legitimate stardom in a flash, as early as this season?
For this article, I only picked from players selected in the first round between the 2021 and 2023 drafts who have yet to make an All-Pro team or earn a Pro Bowl nod. Those distinctions are coming.
Kincaid's fine rookie season was overshadowed by the masterpiece of a year Sam LaPorta had in Detroit. And it was somewhat of a slow start for Kincaid who first eclipsed 70 yards receiving in a game in late October. However, in the last two games of the regular season -- must-have contests for the Bills -- the former Utah superstar had over 80 yards catching the football, and he snagged a touchdown in the wild-card win over the Steelers in Orchard Park.
Now the Bills have to replace the 152 total targets Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis saw last year in the regular season. And the silky-smooth Kincaid is aligned to be one of the focal points of Buffalo's new, more diverse passing attack. Kincaid won on 55.6% of his contested-catch opportunities -- tied for second only behind LaPorta -- and forced 10 missed tackles on his 81 total catches including the postseason. He'll step into that quasi-elite tier in 2023 right below Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle this season and will be knocking on the door of the elite group heading into 2025.
Richardson is indisputably in the top tier of athletic specimens at the quarterback position today. In fact, he's probably the most naturally gifted quarterback in football. Which is really saying something. Now, of course, the passing element has to come close to matching said athletic prowess for him to ultimately succeed in the NFL.
But I watched every Jalen Hurts drop back in 2021, when he began to settle into the starting role AND when he experienced his ginormous breakout en route to a Super Bowl appearance under second-year Colts head coach Shane Steichen. And it was the most quarterback-friendly system I've ever witnessed. The schemed-opened plays were ubiquitous and there was heavy RPO-usage, which was familiar for Hurts during his collegiate breakout at Oklahoma. Coincidently, Richardson's Florida offense leaned on the RPO, and Richardson, given his dynamic threat of the run, was tremendous operating those as a Gator.
Remember too, Steichen and the Colts were extraordinarily close to advancing to the playoffs in a loaded AFC a season ago with Gardner Minshew throwing 490 passes during the regular season -- Steichen is probably the most underrated play designer in football. Richardson is locked and loaded, titled toward the sky, ready for liftoff in 2024.
Stingley looked like a first-round pick as a 18-year-old freshman at LSU back the the Tigers' legendary national-title winning season with Joe Burrow and Co.
Because he went before Sauce Gardner in the draft, then got injured, and Gardner went on to win Rookie of the Year, the Stingley pick was quickly deemed a colossal mistake. Fast forward to 2023, Stingley snagged five interceptions, knocked away 14 more en route to an unequivocal bounce-back year for the former No. 3 overall selection.
But not Pro Bowl nod yet, so he's eligible for this article.
With a bolstered pass rush in Houston led by monster acquisition Danielle Hunter, and presumably the offense giving the Texans ample leads throughout the season, the cornerbacks are going to be in prime pounce mode for much of the year.
My prediction -- by the end of the 2024 season, it becomes a legitimate debate as to who's the better cornerback, Stingley or Gardner.
Davis hasn't quite met first-round expectations in Washington, but he's kept a starting role almost by default on some less-than-stellar defenses the past few years. But, while gradual, there's been progress in his development entering Year 4. And this is a premier size/speed/athleticism freak. As a reminder, Davis was 6-foot-3 1/2 inches and 234 pounds with 4.48 speed, a 42-inch vertical, and an 11-foot broad jump at his pro day back in 2021.
And now he'll soak up an incalculable amount of knowledge from sage, future Hall of Fame linebacker Bobby Wagner, right next to him in the middle of Washington's new-look defense. Plus, Dan Quinn has worked with a litany of outstanding linebackers in his long coaching career, and he absolutely got the most out of the comparably sized and athletic Leighton Vander Esch most recently in Dallas.
Davis is a plus run defender and an intimidating blitzer for obvious reasons. He'll take a step forward in coverage in 2024 to round out his game to become one of the most complete young linebackers in football.