The Davante Adams saga has finally come to an end. Just over two weeks ago, it was reported that the Las Vegas Raiders were open to listening to offers on their star wideout. The New York Jets were always considered a favorite to land Adams because of his relationship with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and on Tuesday, the transaction finally happened.
Adams is being traded to the Jets, who confirmed the deal. The Raiders will receive a conditional third-round pick that can become a second-round pick based on performance, according to ESPN. What milestones must Adams hit? He has to be named an All-Pro, or be on the active roster for the AFC Championship game or Super Bowl. Those are pretty lofty goals at this point.
In three games this year, Adams has caught 18 passes for 209 yards and just one touchdown. He missed the past three games due to a hamstring injury, which is not considered to be serious. The hope is that Adams bolsters a struggling offense that is the main reason the Jets have started 2-4. In their Monday night loss to the Buffalo Bills, New York went a measly 1-for-4 in the red zone, leading to a three-point loss.
Now that Adams is back with Rodgers, let's attempt to grade this trade:
Jets: B-
It's no surprise that Adams is now a Jet. For one, he has that established chemistry with Rodgers, but also, the Jets had Super Bowl aspirations entering this season. They've clearly struggled out of the gates, already firing head coach Robert Saleh. Jets ownership is ready to take drastic steps to right the ship, and trading for Adams was a logical one.
During their time together with the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers and Adams were a dynamic duo. In their final two seasons playing with each other, Adams averaged 119 receptions, 1,463 receiving yards and 14.5 receiving touchdowns. Reuniting these two playmakers gives the Jets a chance at rebounding. Garrett Wilson hasn't been the kind of dominant WR1 Jets fans were hoping he would be with Rodgers, and free-agent addition Mike Williams has disappointed. Allen Lazard has had his moments, but Adams is a different kind of monster.
The "bad" part of this trade is that the Jets are taking on the entirety of Adams' contract, per ESPN. The Raiders are not going to have to pay a single penny more of the five-year, $140 million contract he signed in 2022. Soon to be 32 years old and already dealing with a minor hamstring injury, Adams may not have the kind of impact fans are hoping for now that he's reunited with his 40-year-old best friend.
Woody Johnson has certainly been aggressive over the past two weeks. How will this move pay off? Here are SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh's numbers from his most recent simulation:
Davante Adams impact
| NY JETS | WINS | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Trade | 7.8 | 45.9% | 5.6% | 31.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| w/ Adams | 8.2 | 48.2% | 7.6% | 40.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Difference | 0.4 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 8.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
The sportsbooks haven't reacted much to the Adams news, either. The Jets are +155 to make the playoffs (unchanged), +650 to win the AFC East (down from +700), +1300 to win the AFC (down from +1500) and +3000 to win the Super Bowl (unchanged), per DraftKings sportsbook.
Raiders: A-
Remember, this isn't grading the Raiders' entire experience with Adams, it's grading this trade specifically. Vegas reportedly wanted a second-round pick for Adams, and got close. A conditional third-round pick isn't bad, although it doesn't seem like Adams is going to hit those milestones for the selection to graduate to a second-rounder. Again, Adams has to either make an All-Pro team or be on the active roster for the AFC Championship game or Super Bowl.
Maybe Adams wasn't publicly shoving his way out of Sin City, but it certainly appeared he was done playing for the Raiders. Vegas continues to struggle with perennial quarterback issues, and sits in the basement of the AFC West at 2-4. So, why not get something in return for a playmaker that wasn't going to single-handedly save your season? The best part about this trade is that the Raiders don't have to pay any more of that contract. There were questions about how much money Vegas would have to take on to move Adams. Turns out it was none.
Adams' financial situation
| Year | Age | Base salary | Cash total |
|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 32 | $11,260,000 | $11,590,000 ($11.2M guaranteed) |
2025 | 33 | $35,640,000 | $36,250,000 (non-guaranteed) |
2026 | 34 | $35,640,000 | $36,250,000 (non-guaranteed) |
*Figures via Spotrac
The Raiders will have $13.67 million in dead cap this year, which doesn't matter at all, and then $15.7 million dead cap in 2025, per Spotrac. Bottom line, Vegas traded away a player who wanted out for a third-round pick, and got rid of the contract with eyes set towards the future.