I hope you bought Derrick Henry stock this offseason or early this season because it is skyrocketing in the last two weeks. He entered Week 5 as the NFL's rushing leader (480 yards) with a pace of over 2,000 yards after back-to-back 150-yard rushing games to help get the Ravens back to .500 at 2-2. 

Henry also just became the 32nd member of the exclusive 10,000-yard club on Sunday against Cincinnati. He just might be the last to hit this milestone, too. Think about it. Before Henry, the last player to join the club was Marshawn Lynch on Dec. 31, 2017. It's been almost seven years. Almost one player joined the club per year from 1981-2014.  It's the second-longest drought without a player reaching 10,000 rushing yards (only longer: Jim Brown in 1964 and O.J. Simpson in 1977, the first two to reach 10,000 rush yards). 

Players with 10,000 rushing yards in NFL history

NFL playerDate Reached
Derrick HenryOct. 6, 2024

Marshawn Lynch

Dec. 31, 2017

LeSean McCoy

Dec. 17, 2017

Frank Gore

Sept. 7, 2014

Adrian Peterson

Dec. 1, 2013

Steven Jackson

Dec. 16, 2012

Ricky Williams

Jan. 1, 2012

Thomas Jones

Dec. 19, 2010

Jamal Lewis

Dec. 21, 2008

LaDainian Tomlinson

Nov. 25, 2007

Warrick Dunn

Nov. 22, 2007

Fred Taylor

Nov. 11, 2007

Tiki Barber

Dec. 10, 2006

Edgerrin James

Dec. 3, 2006

Corey Dillon

Oct. 9, 2005

Eddie George

Dec. 28, 2003

Curtis Martin

Dec. 8, 2002

Marshall Faulk

Oct. 20, 2002

Jerome Bettis

Oct. 7, 2001

Ricky Watters

Dec. 3, 2000

Emmitt Smith

Nov. 28, 1996

Thurman Thomas

Oct. 6, 1996

Barry Sanders

Dec. 10, 1995

Marcus Allen

Dec. 24, 1994

Ottis Anderson

Dec. 9, 1990

Eric Dickerson

Sept. 10, 1989

Tony Dorsett

Oct. 13, 1985

John Riggins

Oct. 14, 1984

Walter Payton

Dec. 26, 1982

Franco Harris

Nov. 8, 1981

O.J. Simpson

Oct. 16, 1977

Jim Brown

Nov. 1, 1964

There's a reason for that. While rushing is making a comeback early this season, we aren't seeing a return of the bell-cow running back. 

There were 24 individual seasons with 300-plus rushes in the 2010s, down from 87 in the 2000s. 

Last year the league's top five rushers averaged 1,188 rushing yards, the fewest by the NFL's top five in a non-strike season since 1974 when the league played a 14-game schedule, not today's 17 games. 

The opportunity for the game's elite talents at running back just aren't there. There were 20 individual seasons where players accounted for at least 70 percent of their team's rushes in the 2010s. That figure was 58 in the 2000s. Six players hit that alone in the year 2000, compared with zero last year. 

Henry is the last of a dying breed. He's had at least 60 percent of his team's carries in each of the last five seasons, including four straight with at least 70 percent from 2019-22. 

Individual seasons since 1990


300+ Rushes1,500+ Rush Yards70% of Team Rushes

2010s

24

10

20

2000s

87

34

58

19902

59

17

45

This is why if you eyeball the list of most rushing yards among active players you see so few viable options to follow Henry into the 10,000-yard rushing club.

Active NFL rushing leaders entering Week 5Career rushing yards 

Derrick Henry

9,982

Ezekiel Elliott

8,985

Joe Mixon

6,596

Nick Chubb

6,511

Aaron Jones

6,261

Dalvin Cook

6,207

Alvin Kamara

6,191

Christian McCaffrey

6,185

Josh Jacobs

5,874

Saquon Barkley

5,546

Lamar Jackson

5,566

Let's run through the best options. I'm bypassing Ezekiel Elliott. He's almost 1,000 away, but his rushing yards per game average has declined in eight straight seasons. He's down to career lows in yards per rush (3.4) and yards per game (20.3) this year. 

SF San Francisco • #23
Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Career Stats

RUYDS

6,185

GAMES

91

RUSH YPG

68.0

AGE

28

Christian McCaffrey probably entered the year as the top candidate coming off last year's rushing title, still in his prime at age 28 needing nearly 4,000 yards to join the club. He could reach that at the end of 2028 at his current career pace (68.0 rushing yards per game and 13 games per season), but now his health is a huge question mark with Achilles tendinitis in both legs. I can't endorse his candidacy.

IND Indianapolis • #28
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.

Career Stats

RUYDS

4,931

GAMES

57

RUSH YPG

86.5

AGE

25

Jonathan Taylor is probably the best candidate. He averages 86.5 career rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest average in NFL history and highest among active players (next highest is Nick Chubb who is not on my list due to his leg injury). He's still 25 and could reach 10,000 at the end of 2028 based on his current pace. However, his 2021 season (1,811 rushing yards) is looking like an outlier and he's missed 13 games in the previous two seasons. I'd say his chances are lower than 50-50. 

BAL Baltimore • #8
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.

Career Stats

RUYDS

5,566

GAMES

90

RUSH YPG

61.8

AGE

27

Lamar Jackson is the darkhorse. He's 27 years old and has 5,566 yards. He would hit 10,000 midway through 2029 at age 33 based on his current pace. However, I would expect him to hit a wall in his early 30s like other elite running quarterbacks. If you cut his pace from 61.8 rushing yards per game to 40, it would take him until 2032 when he's 36. 

Bijan Robinson is absurdly talented but we haven't seen enough from him yet to make a projection. I also left off Saquon Barkley. He's 27 years old and sits at 5,646 rushing yards. He is too injury prone, though, and has never rushed for more than 1,312 yards in a season. 

Top candidates for 10,000 rushing yards


Career Rush YPGCareer Games Per Year10K Club Pace

Christian McCaffrey

68.0

13

Late 2028

Jonathan Taylor

86.5

13

Late 2028

Lamar Jackson

61.8

14

2029

There are a lot of reasons why Henry could be the last player to ever reach 10,000 rushing yards. One I didn't mention was more and more talented athletes choose to play quarterback and wide receiver, rather than running back. 

Could there be another alien like Henry that comes along and beats the odds, though? Sure. I'm positive that 10 years ago nobody thought somebody like Shohei Ohtani would come along and have a 50-50 season after striking out 200 batters in a season as a pitcher. 

When it comes to sports, you never know, but recent history paints a gloomy future for the 10,000-yard rushing club, so appreciate Henry's milestone all the more!