Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. (grass, outdoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Spread: Falcons by 3.5
Forecast: Mostly cloudy; projected kickoff temperature: 70
Records: Falcons (Overall: 11-1, NFC South: 3-1); Panthers (Overall: 3-9, NFC South: 1-3)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Sept. 30, 2012: Falcons 30, Panthers 28; Dec. 11, 2011: Falcons 31, Panthers 23. Series record: Falcons have 23-12 all-time edge and have won the last five meetings.
What matters: The Falcons have already clinched the NFC South and are now gunning for the No. 1 seed in the NFC to guarantee themselves home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. There’s an outside chance it could happen this weekend. Should San Francisco, Green Bay, Chicago and the New York Giants all lose while the Falcons defeat the Panthers, Atlanta would clinch it with three weeks remaining. More likely, though, is that if three of the four aforementioned teams lose and the Falcons win, Atlanta would secure at least a first-round bye. Whether it’s this week or next week, as long as the Falcons keep winning, they’ll guarantee themselves a first-round bye, at the minimum.
Who matters: Once the early leader for NFL MVP, Matt Ryan has struggled the past three weeks, throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions. Those numbers are skewed because of the five-interception game against the Cardinals, but there’s no denying that Ryan’s timing has been off. Last Thursday against the Saints, he set season lows by completing 54.5 percent of his passes for just 165 yards. Wideout Roddy White (one catch, 20 yards) was a non-factor and Julio Jones was held to just 48 yards. Unlike the beginning of the season, it’s been the defense that’s carried the Falcons throughout the third quarter of the schedule, but Sunday’s matchup against the 20th-ranked scoring defense in the NFL gives Ryan and the offense a chance to regain some confidence.
Key matchups: Cam Newton vs. Falcons defense. Newton burned the Falcons in the first meeting, accounting for 301 yards (215 passing, 86 rushing) and three touchdowns. His scrambling ability drew LBs Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas to the line of scrimmage, which helped open up the passing lanes. The key Sunday is getting pressure on Newton from the DL because the depth in the Falcons secondary is already thin due to injuries. The Falcons need the linebackers to drop into coverage instead of crash the pocket. If S William Moore, the reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week, can’t play due to a hamstring injury, the Falcons lose his dual-ability to blitz and break up passes in the air. He’s typically given free range to roam and would be the Falcons' best asset in neutralizing Newton. …The OL will be under scrutiny as well after giving up seven sacks against the Panthers the first time around. Tackles Sam Baker and Tyson Clabo will be primarily responsible for blocking DE Charles Johnson, who had three sacks in the first meeting. The Panthers aren’t averse to lining him up in different positions along the DL. …On the offensive end, Carolina has the 25th-worst rush defense in the NFL (128 ypg) and Michael Turner easily had his best game of the season on Sept. 30. He was the Falcons leading rusher with 103 yards and had a 60-yard touchdown catch in the win. He’s scored one touchdown in three straight games.
Injuries of note: Moore and DB Asante Samuel (shoulder) missed consecutive practices on Wednesday and Thursday and are gametime decisions. When asked about the injury by the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Samuel said, “I can’t talk when I’m injured.” Smith said he would be cautious with Samuel, who left the Saints game after just three plays. It’s certainly not a good omen that Samuel, one of the most outspoken players on the Falcons, isn’t saying anything.
Inside stuff: The Falcons (46 percent) trail only the Patriots (53) in terms of third-down conversion percentage, but were just 1 for 11 last week against the Saints. “I don’t worry too much about the statistics or those types of things,” Ryan said to the Journal Constitution. “We have to do a better job on third down.”
Connections: Smith, offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, and DL coach Ray Hamilton all worked with Panthers QB coach Mike Shula in Jacksonville in 2007.
Stat you should know: Atlanta’s five interceptions against the Saints marked the eighth time the franchise has recorded five interceptions and the first time since 1980. It was also the first time since Week 3 that the Falcons recorded a positive turnover margin.
Second stat you should know: Denver (10-3) is the only team the Falcons have played thus far which currently has a winning record.
Bulletin board quote: If the Falcons were lacking any motivation heading into Sunday’s game, Panthers DE Greg Hardy foolishly gave it to them when he remarked that the Panthers were a better team than the Falcons.
“There’s a point where you know you’re better than someone,” he said to the Charlotte Observer. “We just didn’t pull it out,” referring to the Sept. 30th meeting.
He went on to say, “I’m trying to mess up their whole playoff experience. I want them to go home sick in the stomach, mad about life, a couple depression issues, all types of things.”
Click here to read the Falcons players' reaction to his outburst.
Looking ahead: The Falcons host the New York Giants next Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on Fox. The game could be a potential playoff preview as Atlanta is currently the No. 1 seed, while the Giants are currently No. 4.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Panthers 21
For more Falcons coverage, follow Mike Singer on Twitter @CBSFalcons.
