Each week, we’ll take the best -- and most clever -- odds collected by Bovada for the upcoming week and give our take. This is important stuff, perhaps the most important post you’ll read all week. Because if you can’t lose money while watching a game in which you have absolutely no effect, what’s the point of watching sports at all?
Note: Home team is listed first in Against the Spread.
Game One: Saints -3.5 vs. Chargers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
| Overall: 1-3 | Overall: 3-1 |
| Home: 0-2 | Home: 1-1 |
| Away: 1-1 | Away: 2-0 |
| Last 2 vs. SD: 1-1 | Last 2 v. NO: 1-1 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| Pass offense: 3rd | Pass defense: 17th |
| Rush offense: 26th | Rush defense: 5th |
| Pass defense: 23rd | Pass offense: 23rd |
| Rush defense: 30th | Rush offense: 17th |
Verdict: With the disaster the Saints season has been so far this year, I don't see much reason why New Orleans suddenly would start winning games against decent teams. Ah, but the Chargers organization is always a team seemingly in need of a bad loss. This San Diego team might be different, and I'm betting that the Chargers attempt to keep Norv Turner in charge will continue successfully in New Orleans. Take the Chargers.
Game Two: Jaguars +6.5 vs. Bears
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET FOX
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
| Overall: 2-2 | Overall: 3-1 |
| Home: 0-2 | Home: 2-0 |
| Away: 2-0 | Away: 1-1 |
| Last 3 vs. CHI: 1-2 | Last 3 v. JAX: 2-1 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| Pass offense: 31st | Pass defense: 18th |
| Rush offense: 15th | Rush defense: 3rd |
| Pass defense: 20th | Pass offense: 25th |
| Rush defense: 28th | Rush offense: 16th |
Verdict: I got burned last week picking the Bills to cover the spread vs. the Patriots, and this pick feels similar. But here's why I like Jacksonville. The Jaguars are playing at home, the Bears are coming off a short week and have to fly halfway across the country, and Chicago still employs J'Marcus Webb and Roberto Garza on the offensive line. All of that spells Jacksonville covering.
Game Three (largest spread of week): 49ers -10.5 vs. Bills
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
| 2012 Against The Spread | |
| Overall: 3-1 | Overall: 2-2 |
| Home: 1-0 | Home: 1-1 |
| Away: 2-1 | Away: 1-1 |
| Last 3 vs. BUF: 2-1 | Last 3 vs. SF: 1-2 |
| 2012 Team Rankings | |
| Pass offense: 30th | Pass defense: 22nd |
| Rush offense: 3rd | Rush defense: 26th |
| Pass defense: 5th | Pass offense: 22nd |
| Rush defense: 6th | Rush offense: 4th |
Verdict: The Bills played the Patriots tough last week, and for a while, it appeared that Buffalo's offense could wipe out New England on a Patriots off-week. Of course, New England scored 52 points. Either way, the 49ers don't have the explosive offense displayed by the Patriots, and if Buffalo gets hot again, this game will be close. San Francisco don't have the Bellichickian-like offense to cover the spread.
PROP BETS
How many offensive yards will the New York Jets have in Week 5?
Over/Under 320½
The Jets average 284 yards per game, which ranks them No. 27 in the league, and they’re going to miss their top receiver, Santonio Holmes, for the rest of the season. Combine that with the fact that they’re playing a Texans defense that allows 273 yards per game, ranking No. 1 in the NFL, and this call is pretty easy. Go under.
Who will have more passing yards in Week 5?
Tom Brady (NE) QB -150
Peyton Manning (DEN) QB +120
Here’s what’s going to happen. That Patriots will jump to a quick lead, the Broncos will try to keep up by passing the ball. The Patriots then will run the ball. Ergo, Manning will lose the game but will record more passing yards.
Will Mark Sanchez be benched in the game?
Yes EVEN
No -140
Not this week. Maybe next week, but he’ll be OK for Week 5.
Rashard Mendenhall -- total rushing yards Week 5?
Over/Under 60½
It sounds like Mendenhall will make his season debut vs. the Eagles, but chances are, Mendenhall won’t get his normal number of carries as the team tries to slowly ease him back into the action. He’ll go under.
Last week: 1-2 against the spread (hit Texas (-12.5) vs.Titans, missed on Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Bears and Bills (+4.5) vs. Patriots.
2-1 on the prop bets. Hit on Tim Tebow not catching a pass; on Blair Walsh not kicking a 50-plus yard field. Missed on average number of penalties per game (under 13). Unclear if the Bengals-Jaguars announcers said the word "biceps" in regards to Ed Hochuli, so I'm throwing it out.
Overall: 7-5 against the spread; 9-4 on prop bets; one prop still undecided (Ken Whisenhunt first coach to get fired).