There's only one way to follow up a wild, upset-filled Week 11 Sunday: with Tom Brady playing against the New York Giants.
Of course, the two squads that will square off on "Monday Night Football" are wildly different than the ones who went head to head in Super Bowls past -- starting with the fact that one of the teams is literally a different franchise. There's still a ton of upset-related history here, though, which makes it appropriate that this game is happening in this particular week.
So, will the Giants pull off yet another upset over the greatest quarterback of all time, or will Brady and the Bucs take care of business at home? We'll find out later this evening; but right now, we're here to break down the matchup.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Nov. 22 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Buccaneers -11, O/U 50
When the Giants have the ball
The Buccaneers desperately need some help in the secondary at the moment, so the potential return of cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting -- who has been out since injuring his elbow back in Week 1 -- is a welcome development. That's especially the case against a Giants wide receiver corps that is getting healthier, even with Sterling Shepard still sidelined (and not practicing) for this game coming out of the bye. Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Kadarius Toney are all healthy, and having to match those guys with Ross Cockrell, Pierre Desir, and Dee Delaney would be less than ideal. Now, at least, the Bucs should have both Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean in the lineup.
New York's offensive line has done a somewhat better than expected job of keeping pressure out of Daniel Jones' face this season. He has been pressured on 32.9 percent of his dropbacks so far, per Tru Media, almost exactly equal to the league average of 32.8 percent. Getting left tackle Andrew Thomas back on the field should only help on that front. The Bucs have gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks at the third-highest rate in the league, though they have been somewhat vulnerable to scrambling, which is one of Jones' strengths.
Bad news for Jones, though, is that the Buccaneers play mostly zone coverage, utilizing man at the seventh-lowest rate in the league. Jones ranks just 24th among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback against zone, and has a negative touchdown to interception ration on those throws. Slot man Shepard is also probably the Giants' best zone beater, though the return of Saquon Barkley as an outlet out of the backfield should provide Jones the opportunity to work checkdown routes and get some easy gains.
The Giants seem wildly unlikely to find much success on the ground against this Tampa defensive front that has stopped pretty much everybody from running the ball. Vita Vea is doubtful for the game, but even without him, the Bucs are too good up front to be run on. Tampa is second in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, sixth in Adjusted Line Yards allowed per carry, and third in the percentage of opponent runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage (25 percent). The Giants have had little in the way of success running the ball this year with or without Barkley, who has largely been ineffective in the seven games he's been healthy over the last two seasons.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Tampa's surprising ineffectiveness against a Washington Football Team defense that had been one of the worst in the NFL entering their Week 10 matchup was one of the strangest developments of the season. That was true even despite the absences of Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, and Chris Godwin's having entered the game questionable due to a foot injury. That was a defense that any good offense should have torn up.
But in something that's becoming a bit of a trend this year, the Football Team getting heavy pressure on Brady early in the game threw off the offense's rhythm for the rest of the afternoon. That will be key for the Giants on Monday night. Brady has to be out of rhythm early, or he's going to stay in rhythm all game long.
The one area the Giants might have an advantage is with Leonard Williams and company on the defensive line against the interior of Tampa's offensive line. That's the best place to get pressure against Brady, too, because he would much rather step up and/or through the pocket than be forced to move off his spot, get to the outside, reset, and then throw. (He was never much of an on-the-run guy, and is even less of one now.) Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham may feel the urge to dial up some pressures just to make sure his rushers get into the backfield, but that could be dangerous against Brady, who recognizes and diagnoses the blitz better than anyone around.
If the Giants can't get that pressure to knock Brady off his game, they could be in some trouble on the back end. James Bradberry figures to follow Mike Evans around the field, just like he did when they matched up two times a year when Bradberry was with the Panthers, but Godwin should have a significant advantage in the slot, Gronkowski is looking like he might return to the fold, and the Giants' secondary is somewhat depleted with both Logan Ryan (COVID-19) and Jabrill Peppers (out for the year) out of the lineup. The middle of the field should therefore be available for Brady to attack.
Leonard Fournette has staked total claim to the Buccaneers backfield at this point, with Giovani Bernard mixing in as the two-minute back and Ronald Jones an afterthought. Fournette still has issues with the dropsies on occasion, but he's become a valuable outlet on checkdowns and screens. His 4.3 yards per carry average is not great but is actually tied for the best mark in his career. The Bucs do not make the run game a focus of their offense, though, preferring instead to let Brady operate everything. That's the strength of the team anyway, so they might as well lean into it.
Prediction: Buccaneers 33, Giants 17
