The San Francisco 49ers made a blockbuster move on Thursday, sending four draft picks to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for star running back Christian McCaffrey.
Was the deal good value? Almost certainly not. The Niners had already devoted enormous resources to the running back position over the years, signing Jerick McKinnon to a big contract, trading up for a running back in the third or fourth round twice (Joe Williams and Trey Sermon), drafting other running backs in the third (Tyrion Davis-Price) and sixth (Elijah Mitchell) rounds and adding players like Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson Jr., JaMycal Hasty, and Jordan Mason in free agency. McCaffrey is also due base salaries of at least $12 million in each of the next three seasons after this one, all but ensuring that if the Niners keep him around, he will be the league's highest-paid player at his position.
Our friends at Sportsline also don't see the deal making much of an impact in terms of San Francisco's win-loss record or chances of competing for the division, playoffs, NFC title, or Super Bowl.
| 49ers | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Trade | 9.5 | 55.9% | 49.0% | 67.9% | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| w/ McCaffrey | 9.7 | 57.1% | 52.5% | 71.3% | 10.7% | 4.8% |
| Difference | 0.2 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Schematically, though, this is going to be so much damn fun. Shanahan is one of the league's most inventive play-designers, and McCaffrey has a versatility unmatched by any nominal running back in the NFL. Since he entered the league in 2017, McCaffrey ranks 11th among running backs in snaps aligned as a perimeter wide receiver, and third in snaps lined up in the slot, according to Tru Media.
Combine his flexibility with that of Deebo Samuel, as well as Kyle Juszczyk and even Brandon Aiyuk, and we are going to see the Niners get into some wild stuff. Samuel, of course, is first among all wide receivers in snaps aligned in the backfield. He's been there on 15% of his snaps this season, which is about as often as he's lined up in the slot (19%). Juszczyk, who is a fullback and thus plays a far lighter snap load than most runners, still checks in sixth among backfield players in snaps out wide and second in slot snaps. Aiyuk saw six carries as a rookie and five last season, and though the Niners have seemingly committed to Samuel as the gadget guy among their receiver group, they can easily shift some of that work back Aiyuk's way if they want to.
Don't forget, this is a team that at one point last season lined up its No. 1 wide receiver as a running back, the tight end as a fullback, the fullback split out wide to one season, the No. 2 receiver as an in-line tight end with his hand in the ground, and the running back split out to that side on the line of scrimmage.
The play did not result in a touchdown because every once in a while, Jimmy Garoppolo's brain just short circuits and he cannot make the easiest of all possible throws, but you can see just how damn confused the Jaguars were by what was happening here.
It's very easy to imagine the Niners dropping McCaffrey into a lot of the stuff they do in terms of moving players around to different positions and getting the ball in creative ways, largely because even the ridiculously bad Panthers offense found ways to do that every once in a while. Whether it was lining him up in the slot, sending him in orbit motion, or sending him out wide to get a smoke screen with blocking in front of him, we saw a bunch of stuff in Carolina that we are likely to see in San Francisco.
But the 49ers can get even more ambitious with McCaffrey because unlike, say, Jeff Wilson Jr. or Elijah Mitchell, or even Juszczyk, he is an elite, home-run threat as both a runner and a receiver. Inserting him in place of one of those three players in actions like the ones below can create even more space for guys like Samuel, and having Samuel aligned in the backfield or Juszczyk out wide or in the slot can create confusion for teams and thus more room to work for McCaffrey.
The passing game stuff San Francisco should be able to access with CMC on the field might be even more exciting. The concepts will remain the same, but who aligns where and how that threatens opposing defenses will be constantly changing. Imagine the Niners lining up in a spread look, shifting Samuel into the backfield, sending Juszczyk in motion and faking a hand-off to Samuel in that direction, then flipping a quick screen to McCaffrey the other way. Or Samuel in the backfield, Juszczyk out wide, CMC in the slot, and Aiyuk split out to the same side of the field.
This type of stuff is already working for them, and now it might become all the more dangerous.
And all of this is just the gimmicky stuff. Having a shifty, elusive runner like McCaffrey in a system that has been proven time and again to be capable of producing high-level performances from backs much less talented than he is, should bring with it strong results. And play-action passing with McCaffrey as the back could be even more effective than it has been with the likes of Wilson, Mitchell, Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, and Tevin Coleman over the years. Plus, the screens, swing routes, and dump-offs to McCaffrey should yield even more fruit than when those targets went to the backs that have previously occupied this role.
