This offseason Josh Allen was voted the most overrated quarterback in an ESPN survey of over 100 NFL players. That seemed like an overreaction at the time, and probably served as bulletin-board material as a lot has changed in a few months.
We've gone from Allen fatigue (after an NFL-high 102 turnovers from 2018-23) to Allen MVP fever as he leads the NFL in MVP odds (-270) ahead of Saquon Barkley (+450) at FanDuel.
The transformation starts with this. No quarterback has seen a more drastic shift in avoiding turnovers than Allen, who is playing the most efficient (or "clean") football of his career. His turnover rate has dropped from 3.1% of plays in 2023 to 1.6% this season, the biggest improvement in the league (-1.5% drop). He had 22 giveaways last year, second-most in the NFL and has just seven so far in 2024.
Despite Allen's historic one-man band effort on Sunday vs. the 49ers (he became the first quarterback ever with a pass, rush and receiving touchdown in the same game) he's actually doing less than he ever has. Which is a good thing.
He's averaging the lowest turnover rate (1.6%) and sack rate (3.5%) of his career. He's averaging the fewest dropbacks per game (33.3) since his rookie year and the fewest rush attempts (5.8) per game in his seven-year career.
He has the lowest negative play rate of any passer with 10+ starts this season. Only 5.2% of his plays are resulting in a sack, fumble or interception. In this case, less is more, especially because he is still doing damage, posting his highest explosive pass rate since 2019 (17% of his passes are gaining 20+ yards).
It all adds to probably the best version of Allen we've ever seen. He's averaging by far the highest EPA per play (0.22) of his career.
Josh Allen career
| EPA/Play | TO Pct | Sack Pct | Time To Throw | Pass Length | Explosive Pass Pct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | -0.15 | 3.2% | 8.0% | 3.33 | 10.9 | 17.8% |
2019 | -0.07 | 2.1% | 7.6% | 3.03 | 9.2 | 17.3% |
2020 | 0.13 | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.14 | 8.5 | 15.7% |
2021 | 0.09 | 2.3% | 3.9% | 2.98 | 8.2 | 12.5% |
2022 | 0.13 | 2.6% | 5.5% | 2.99 | 9.2 | 14.2% |
2023 | 0.11 | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.98 | 8.7 | 12.7% |
2024 | 0.22 | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.83 | 7.6 | 17.0% |
The impact in Buffalo is undeniable. The Bills are averaging their most points per drive (2.8) in the Allen era. They are off to their best 12-game start (10-2) since 1991, have won seven in a row and have rattled off six straight 30-point games.
The momentum-killing Allen turnovers haven't happened. Buffalo's opponents have just 27 points off turnovers this year, the fifth-best mark in the league. They had 80 last year, 24th in the NFL.
All signs point toward Allen continuing his efficient play down the stretch as he attempts to become the first quarterback in franchise history to win NFL MVP. He is averaging the quickest time to throw (2.83 seconds) and shortest pass length (7.6) of his career.
Josh Allen in 2024
| Career Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
EPA/play | 0.22 | Best |
TO rate | 1.6% | Best |
Sack rate | 3.6% | Best |
Negative play rate | 5.2% | Best |
Dropbacks per game | 33.3 | Fewest |
Rush att per game | 5.8 | Fewest |
Time to throw | 2.83 | Quickest |
Avg pass length | 7.6 | Shortest |
It was clearly addition by subtraction this offseason when the Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Allen is spreading the football around and making better decisions. He has a touchdown pass to 12 different players this season, the most in the NFL and one shy of tying the single-season NFL record (13 by 2016 Matt Ryan, 2018 Drew Brees, 2018 Andrew Luck, 2019 Jimmy Garoppolo). A career-low 54% of his passes are targeting wide receivers and the Bills aren't on pace to have a 1,000-yard receiver.
In some ways Allen's evolution follows the career arc of Patrick Mahomes, who went from gunslinger to game manager (in a good way) over the years as defenses changed how they played him and Kansas City traded Tyreek Hill. From 2020-23 Allen posted the most touchdowns and turnovers in the entire league, the first player to do this in a four-year span since Brett Favre in the late nineties (the OG gunslinger). Now Allen is managing the game better, and like Mahomes, is still playing the superstar card in the clutch. Allen proved it in the Week 11 win vs. Kansas City with the 26-yard touchdown scramble on fourth down to seal the game.
This evolution will probably translate to an MVP for Allen, especially if he leads the Bills to a win in Detroit next week. There would not be a much bigger MVP statement than beating the Chiefs and Lions, the teams with the two best records in the NFL, in a span of 30 days.
Well, maybe I should retract that statement. Barkley breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record (2,105 yards in 1984) might be bigger. He's on pace to do it and he has a cupcake schedule down the stretch.
But, Allen is making a really strong case himself. This version of Allen should definitely help his MVP case but I'm not sure he will cash it in for Buffalo's long-awaited Super Bowl. I wrote about the Allen turnover crisis this offseason and reasoned that it was an overreaction as turnovers actually haven't been a problem in the postseason. He has the same turnover rate (1.2% of plays) as Mahomes in the last four postseasons and only has two turnovers in the Bills' four playoff losses in that span. He played about as clean of football as you can play in last season's playoff loss to Kansas City (no interceptions, no sacks, one fumble).
Playoffs aside though, we can appreciate that Allen has shut up some critics in a quest for his first MVP.
