The penultimate Thursday Night Football game of the NFL regular-season slate has massive implications for the AFC wild-card race as the Denver Broncos (9-5) visit the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) in an AFC West showdown. Kansas City already has clinched the division, so there is just one route to the postseason for these clubs. The Bolts eye the season sweep, and they are 2.5-point favorites with a total of 42. This is the first game to be flexed to TNF under the new scheduling procedures introduced in 2023.
The Broncos and Ravens are the only 9-5 teams in the AFC, with Baltimore holding the top wild-card spot via head-to-head tiebreaker -- thanks to a 41-10 home blowout win over the Broncos in Week 9 -- and Denver currently No. 6. The Ravens could also still win the AFC North, and current North leader Pittsburgh (10-4) would be in the wild card mix. Denver is -1000 to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015, when the team won its last Super Bowl in Peyton Manning's final season, and +650 to miss out. A playoff spot would end the longest postseason drought after winning a Super Bowl in NFL history.
Sean Payton's team would be in with a victory or tie on Thursday. Denver would also make it with a loss if Miami, Cincinnati and Indianapolis all lose or tie on Sunday. However, all three of those teams are home favorites, and I don't expect any of them to lose -- especially the Bengals vs. Cleveland, which will now be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback.
Really the only way the Broncos miss out is if they lose out, and they close at Cincinnati (which I think is a loss) and home vs. Kansas City, which may or may not have a reason to care by Week 18 and surely would like to rest Patrick Mahomes and his balky ankle if possible. The SportsLine Projection Model currently gives the Broncos a 93.2% shot to make the playoffs (equates to -1370).
Denver cashed its preseason over/under win total of 5.5 weeks ago, while Los Angeles' 8.5 remains unsettled in Jim Harbaugh's first season as head coach. The Over looked like a sure thing when the team was 7-3, but it has lost three of four -- albeit to playoff teams Baltimore, Kansas City and Tampa Bay -- to fall to the seventh and final AFC playoff spot.
The Chargers have a two-game lead over the rest of the conference for the No. 7 seed. Los Angeles is -1200 to reach the postseason for the first time since 2022 and +700 to not. The Bolts could clinch Sunday with a win here and losses by Miami and Indianapolis. The bad news is that Los Angeles closes with back-to-back road games, but the good news is that they are against two of the NFL's worst clubs in the Patriots and Raiders. The model gives L.A. a 91.5% shot (-1075) to play extra football.
We'll take you through every aspect of the Broncos-Chargers game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including sportsbook promos and the best odds, along with SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.
Get updated lines and picks on SportsLine's game forecast page for this matchup.
Betting on TNF: Broncos vs. Chargers
In Week 6, the Chargers were -3 in Denver (total was 37) and won 23-16 after leading 23-0 entering the fourth quarter. Broncos star cornerback Patrick Surtain II left with a concussion on the team's first defensive play, and the Bolts jumped out to 20-0 lead at the break without having to worry about the Pro Bowler in the secondary. Justin Herbert threw for 237 yards and a TD, and JK Dobbins rushed for 97 yards and a score on 26 carries. The latter is now on IR.
The Broncos' only snap in Chargers territory in the first half ended in a lost fumble by Javonte Williams. Rookie QB Bo Nix and the Broncos offense finally woke up in the fourth to make things interesting. It was the Chargers' first win over Denver in two years and first against Sean Payton in seven tries. The Broncos still lead all-time 73-56-1, including one playoff game. They won in Los Angeles last year, 24-7, when Herbert had to leave early with a fractured finger. Denver is 6-4 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and the over/under is 5-5 in that span.
Best betting odds and lines for Broncos vs. Chargers on TNF
| Money line | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
Broncos | +130 (Caesars) | +3 (-118, FanDuel) | Over 42 (-110, multiple) |
Chargers | -145 (BetMGM) | -2.5 (-115, multiple) | Under 42.5 (-115, FanDuel) |
Expert picks for Broncos vs. Chargers on TNF
The SportsLine Projection Model is projecting the final score to land right on the consensus over/under of 42, but subscribers can see which side of the Broncos-Chargers spread is the best value according to the model at SportsLine or on the CBS Sports app. Expert Matt Severance (yep, it's me this week) is on a 23-7 run (+1417) on Broncos picks, and I'm leaning Under. I've also shared my Broncos-Chargers spread pick at SportsLine.
Other SportsLine experts have also weighed in on several props for the game. Jason La Canfora, who is +417 on his past 18 NFL player prop picks, is optimistic Bo Nix will have a big night against a suddenly struggling Chargers defense. Early Edge host Sia Nejad, meanwhile, is up +1150 on NFL props and is fading one team's top tailback. Those picks and more are available for SportsLine members on the website or the CBS Sports app.
Sportsbook betting promos for Broncos vs. Chargers on TNF
Those looking to bet Thursday night's AFC West clash may want to consider doing so with the current DraftKings Sportsbook promotion. New users at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins.
Check out more welcome promotions from key sportsbooks below.
What to know before betting Broncos vs. Chargers
Denver Broncos
Injuries
- DNP: DL John Franklin-Myers (foot).
- Limited: DT D.J. Jones (finger), RB Jaleel McLaughlin (quad), CB Riley Moss (knee)
The big news is who isn't on the injury report: All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. He tweaked his ankle on Sunday and at first was considered in major doubt for Thursday. The rookie Moss hasn't played since Nov. 24, but that he got in limited practices is a good sign. The team could give the former Iowa star one more week.
Trends
Denver is 5-0 against the spread in its past five games, 6-1 ATS in its past seven away and 4-1 ATS in its past five overall against the AFC. The Over is 7-3 in the Broncos' past 10 overall and 4-1 in their past five against the AFC West, but the Under is 10-1 in their past 11 on the road in this series. The first-half Over is 8-1 in Denver's past nine road games, but the second-half Under is 9-5 in the team's past 14 overall.
Los Angeles Chargers
Injuries
- DNP: TE Will Dissly (shoulder), CB Cam Hart (concussion), G Zion Johnston (ankle), DB Elijah Molden (knee), DL Otito Ogbonnia (pelvis)
- Limited: QB Justin Herbert (ankle), LB Denzel Perryman (groin).
There's no concern that Herbert will miss his first game of the season. Perryman is expected to play for the first time since Nov. 17. He's still fourth on the team in tackles despite missing a handful of games. Dissly (43-418-1) looks as if he will miss a second straight game. Stone Smartt would likely start again.
Trends
Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its past eight games and 5-1 ATS in its past six against the AFC, but 1-6 straight up in its previous seven December games and 2-7 SU in its past nine against the AFC West. L.A. has covered the fourth-quarter spread in just five of its past 17. The Under is 11-5 in the Chargers' past 16 overall, but the Over 4-1 in their past five at home.
Weather in Los Angeles
It's the home finale at SoFi Stadium (which has a roof) for the Chargers (4-3 ATS at home). Most games, their fans are outnumbered by visiting fans, and Broncos fans do travel very well -- and Los Angeles is a short flight from the Mile High City.
The matchup
Why am I leaning Under? These two teams and Philadelphia are tied for the NFL lead in scoring defense at 17.6 PPG.
Four teams that missed the postseason last year – these two clubs, Minnesota (12-2) and Washington (9-5) – are in playoff positions or have clinched a spot entering Week 16. Since 1990, at least four teams every season have qualified for the playoffs after failing to make the postseason the year before.
Even though Denver beat Indianapolis 31-13 on Sunday for a fourth straight win (all by at least nine points), that score was misleading. The Colts appeared to take a 20-7 third-quarter lead on a 41-yard Jonathan Taylor touchdown run, but on replay it was ruled that he fumbled before crossing the goal line, and the play resulted in a touchback. The Broncos scored the next 24 points and became the first team this NFL season to win a game by double digits with fewer than 200 total yards of offense.
Bo Nix's interception problems might be back. The +650 second favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year had two picks in each of his first two games, which is understandable. The No. 12 overall selection then had just two INTs over his next 10, but has five in his past two following a career-high three vs. Indy. Nix is -145 to throw an INT Thursday. But Denver has still scored at least 29 points in each outing of its four-game winning streak, the team's longest such run with that many points since 2014. It is +400 for Over 28.5 points in this one. Nix leads all rookies with 25 total TDs and 20 passing TDs, and is on pace to become the first Broncos rookie QB ever with at least 20 passing scores and 3,000 yards.
Denver has two NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidates in cornerback Patrick Surtain II (+340) and linebacker Nik Bonitto (+650), both behind Pittsburgh's TJ Watt (-160) on the odds board. Surtain is so good that most teams don't even bother throwing his way, but he still has four INTs (one pick-six) and 11 passes defensed. We mentioned him above.
The 25-year-old Bonitto, a 2022 second-round pick out of Oklahoma, has had a breakout year as he's third in the NFL with 11.5 sacks after tallying just 9.5 over his first two seasons. Bonitto also has at least a half-sack or more in 11 of his last 12 games. In last week's win over Indianapolis to clinch Denver's first winning season since 2016, Bonitto had a 50-yard fumble-return touchdown. He also had a 71-yard pick-six in Week 13 prior to the team's Week 14 bye, making Bonitto the first NFL linebacker since 1970 with 50-yard defensive touchdowns in consecutive games.
Bonitto is the first player since Houston's JJ Watt (TJ's older brother) in 2014 with at least 10 sacks and two defensive TDs in a season. JJ Watt won the second of his record-tying three DPOY awards that year. Denver leads the NFL with 49 sacks and also has a league-high five players with at least five.
The Broncos' 10-3-1 ATS mark is not just the NFL's best this year, but the league's fourth-best ATS record by any team in the last 10 seasons through 14 games. They are 2-0 SU and ATS in primetime games.
Los Angeles led visiting Tampa Bay 17-13 at the half Sunday yet lost 40-17 as the defense wilted after the break. The unit gave up season highs in points, yards (506) and rushing yards (222) while also allowing Tampa Bay to convert on nine of 15 third downs. Overall, the Bucs had nine plays of 18 yards or more and scored TDs on three of them. It was only the third time a Jim Harbaugh-coached NFL team allowed at least 40 points. Entering Week 15, the Bolts had the No. 1 scoring defense, but over the past month have now allowed at least 27 points to three teams with top-six scoring offenses in the Ravens, Bengals and Bucs.
Justin Herbert reached 20,000 career passing yards to join Peyton Manning as the only players with at least 20,000 in their first five seasons in NFL history (Patrick Mahomes only played one game his rookie year). Herbert did have his streak of 357 consecutive pass attempts without an interception end, the fifth-longest run in league history. He's +105 for a pick Thursday -- not many QBs get plus odds. Herbert and the offense have had issues after intermission, as the unit was blanked in the second half Sunday for the third time this season, tied for the most in the NFL.
Rookie wideout Ladd McConkey returned from a one-game injury absence in Week 15 and had five catches for 58 yards and a TD, and now has at least 50 receiving yards in seven straight games. He is set at over/under 66.5 yards here (had 43 in the first meeting) and is on pace to join Keenan Allen and John Jefferson as the only Chargers rookies with 1,000 receiving yards.
The Bolts are 3-0-1 ATS vs. the AFC West this year but 1-5 SU against all teams that currently have a winning record (win was over Denver) and are averaging a scant 16.7 PPG in those games. They are -305 to score at least 17 points against Denver. Los Angeles was not originally scheduled to play on Thursday night this year before this game was flexed, so the franchise will get a Thursday game for the seventh year in a row. It's the team's first home TNF game since 2021.
