Lions Game Preview vs. Packers: Analysis, prediction, TV info

Packers at Lions -- Week 11

Where: Ford Field, Detroit (FieldTurf, indoors)

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Spread: Packers by 3.5

Records: Lions (Overall: 4-5, NFC North: 0-3); Packers (Overall: 6-3, NFC North 1-0)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- January 1, 2012: Packers 45, Lions 41; November 24, 2011: Packers 27, Lions 15. Series record: Packers lead 91-65-7, the NFL’s longest continuous rivalry. 

What matters: A win is the only acceptable result for the Lions. Detroit’s margin for error to make the playoffs is virtually zero, and there's still a trip to Green Bay -- where the Lions haven’t won in more than 20 years -- on the schedule. Sunday is the first of four straight games in which Detroit plays a playoff-caliber team and it must go at least 3-1 for a shot at the postseason. 

What Detroit must do to beat the Packers

• Find a “Robin” for Calvin Johnson’s “Batman”: WR Nate Burleson, who is out for the season with a broken leg, was fond of describing Johnson as the Lions’ Caped Crusader, and himself as the Boy Wonder. Since Burleson’s injury, Johnson hasn’t had enough help from the other receivers to draw coverage away from him in key situations. Johnson had 207 receiving yards against the Vikings in Week 10. The other receivers combined for 101 yards. The passing game must be more balanced Sunday.
  
   
• “Turnover” a new leaf on defense: The Lions have a top-10 defense despite a losing record. Unfortunately, they are among the NFL's worst in turnover margin at minus-4, helping lead to a No. 24 ranking for points allowed. Some on the defense say they think Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is vulnerable to turnovers because he's holding the ball longer in the pocket this season. An early turnover could go a long way to a Detroit win.
  
   
• Get a fast start: The Lions average just 8.3 first-half points, and the Packers score 14.2. Rodgers is at his best when he’s playing with a lead, so the Lions’ offense must keep pace with the Packers to give QB Matthew Stafford a chance to control the game in the fourth quarter.

Who matters: After an uninspired performance against the Vikings (47 rushing yards combined), RBs Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure must be a bigger factor. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan said establishing the run and short passes are keys to a win. … The Lions get a break with Packers’ LB Clay Matthews out with a hamstring injury. That means the defense should look to exploit his absence by using TEs Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler to open the middle of the field in the passing game. 

Key matchups: Packers WRs Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson and James Jones vs. Lions secondary: Cobb has been a revelation for Green Bay, adding 45 receptions to his duties as a return man. His speed could prove problematic as Detroit copes with DB injuries. Nelson, who is returning from injury, is expected to play, meaning Cobb will likely match up against a corner other than Chris Houston. Nelson and Jones are models of consistency and Rodgers' relationship with his receivers gives Green Bay a decided advantage against a patchwork Detroit secondary. ... Lions WR Johnson vs. Packers CB Tramon Williams: Williams is the latest cornerback to adopt the nickname “Optimus Prime” before a matchup against “Megatron.” The last corner to use it, Seattle’s Richard Sherman, held Johnson to three catches for 46 yards -- but the Lions won. Johnson was hobbled against the Seahawks, though, and he’ll be healthier Sunday. Williams prefers to handle receivers one-on-one, but Johnson should have an advantage unless Green Bay adds safety help. ... Cobb vs. Lions’ special teams: Cobb’s elusiveness has been a problem for coverage units that are better than Detroit’s. Coordinator Danny Crossman’s coverage teams have done well to limit opposing return men the past four games, and that trend needs to continue. 

Injuries of note: The Lions released the following status report for Sunday: Out: S Amari Spievey and DT Corey Williams (knee). Doubtful: S Louis Delmas (knee). Questionable: CB Chris and WR Johnson (knee). Probable: DE Cliff Avril (back), S Erik Coleman (eye), K Jason Hanson (left foot), LB Ashlee Palmer (chest) and WR Titus Young (knee).

Inside stuff: K Hanson has been listed on the injury report all week with a foot problem. If something happens to Hanson during the game, P Nick Harris would most likely handle placekicking duties, with backup QB Shaun Hill as his holder. … Defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham and coach Jim Schwartz said Friday that CB Drayton Florence may be active for Sunday’s game. If Florence is moved to the active roster before the Saturday deadline, the team will need to release a player. 

Connections: Lions CB Jacob Lacey (2009-11), G Dylan Gandy (2005-07), and T Corey Hilliard (2007-08) played in Indianapolis with Packer C Jeff Saturday (1999-11). Gandy, Hilliard and Saturday played for the Colts' 2007 Super Bowl winner. Lions DT Williams (2004-07) was originally drafted by the Packers in the sixth round of the 2004 NFL Draft.

Stat you should know: Despite the number of points Detroit has allowed, the front seven ranks among the league’s best in tackles for loss. Detroit has 72 TFLs for 274 yards. That ranks second in the NFL and shows how much the secondary has hurt the defense.

Looking ahead: Win or lose, the Lions face a short turnaround as they prepare to face the Texans on Thursday in the annual Thanksgiving Day Classic. Detroit hasn’t fared well in those games and is on an eight-game turkey-day skid.

Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 16