LeSean McCoy is a member of the Buffalo Bills. Rex Ryan is the head coach. Kiko Alonso is gone -- exactly what we all expected just three months ago. Yeah, right. Stay boring, NFL. Stay boring.
On Tuesday night on the East Coast, Adam Schefter's bombshell of a tweet announcing the Kiko Alonso swap for LeSean McCoy sent digital shock waves through the sports landscape. It's arguably the most profound player-for-player trade since the Washington Redskins traded Champ Bailey for the Denver Broncos' Clinton Portis -- ready? -- on March 4, 2004 … nearly 11 years ago to the day from this Eagles-Bills blockbuster.
After hundreds of thousands of people clicked Schefter's profile to make sure the tweet was from his verified account and not one of the many fake "Adarn Schefter" mega trolls, Football Twitter's collective jaw plummeted.
The next afternoon, the Bills traded the first of two fifth-round picks and a 2016 seventh-round selection for Minnesota Vikings quarterback Matt Cassel and a 2015 sixth-rounder.
With McCoy, a 26-year-old superstar running back on the roster, and Alonso packing his things for the home of the Cheese Steak, let's map out the rest of the offseason for the Bills with specific suggestions and finish with a 2015 depth chart.
Free agency strategy
Restructure McCoy's ridiculous contract: Within minutes of the trade being announced, the masses rushed to sites like OverTheCap.com and Spotrac.com to view the running back's contract. A cap hit of more than $11 million? Yikes. Way too much for any runner in today's NFL.
However, in the subsequent hours of chaos after the trade was reported, what I found to be the most overlooked aspect of it was the accepted consensus that the Bills would simply take on McCoy's current deal … and that McCoy is totally fine with it as is.
| Shady's deal | ||||||
| Year | Base Salary (Guaranteed) | Prorated Signing Bonus | Roster Bonus | Workout Bonus | Other | Cap Hit |
| 2015 | $9,750,000 ($1,000,000) | $1,700,000 | $250,000 | $250,000 | $0 | $11,950,000 |
| 2016 | $6,900,000 | $1,700,000 | $0 | $250,000 | $0 | $8,850,000 |
| 2017 | $7,600,000 | $0 | $0 | $250,000 | $0 | $7,850,000 |
(The Bills already don't have to pay the prorated bonus of $1.7 million, so subtract that from $11.950 million to get a $10.2 million cap hit for Buffalo in 2015.)
Notice that despite huge financials for a running back, there's only $1 million guaranteed left on McCoy's contract that stretches all the way through 2017, when he'll be 29. What do NFL players -- and all working human beings -- love?
Guaranteed money.
Both the Bills and McCoy will likely be interested in redesigning the deal. For the Bills, to lower McCoy's 2015 cap hit. For McCoy, to provide more, spaced-out guaranteed dollars.
That would be my first order of business.
Then again, if McCoy simply wants to bet on himself, Buffalo does have the cap room to pay the sum of more than $10 million this year.
Cut offensive guard Kraig Urbik: This move would save $2.3 million. We've already witnessed an assortment of money-saving veteran releases in March, and this one is too logical. New Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman loves "heavy" six and even seven offensive linemen sets, but Urbik's well past his prime and Buffalo can find an upgrade on the interior of its front via free agency and the draft. The Bills can also save almost $2.5 million if they cut 2014 free-agent signee Chris Williams after June 1.
Sign pass-rusher Jerry Hughes to a five-year, $50 million contract: This deal, which would include $27 million guaranteed, may look massive, and while it certainly wouldn't be off the dollar rack, it could "void" down to three-years and $27 million, which isn't unreasonable for one of the league's most underrated and productive quarterback disruptors.
The Bills shouldn't completely backload this deal -- ask the Saints how that works out -- but Hughes' cap hit in 2015 does not have to be $10 million.
Sign DT Kenrick Ellis to a three-year, $13 million contract with $6 million guaranteed: Ellis doesn't turn 28 until December and was an important role player on the New York Jets defensive line during the later stages of the Rex Era. Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams are the key cogs in the middle, and Stefan Charles turned in a sound 2014 campaign as a backup, but the Bills could actually use a little depth at defensive tackle.
Sign safety Darian Stewart to a two-year deal:Fresh off a one-year deal worth a little more than $1 million with the Ravens, the 26-year-old safety arguably represents the best age/production/cost combination on the free-agent market at his position. The Bills should give him a $4 million contract with $2 million guaranteed. With the versatile Da'Norris Searcy likely to strike a lucrative, multi-year deal elsewhere, the Bills could use a veteran with a diverse skill set to start next to corner-turned-free safety Aaron Williams.
Sign offensive guard Clint Boling to a four-year contract: This deal would be for $18 million with $8 million guaranteed. I used the four-year, $16.8 million deal offensive guard Geoff Schwartz inked in 2014 with the New York Giants as a barometer here. Boling turns just 26 in May and has had a Pro Football Focus overall grade of at least +5.0 in each of the past three years.
In 2014, his +5.4 run-blocking grade ranked 16th out of 78 qualifying guards.
Another perk of this signing -- Boling played next to Buffalo's current left tackle Cordy Glenn at Georgia.
(If Brandon Spikes doesn't find he deal he's looking for, I'd welcome him back on a two-year, $8 million deal with $3.5 million guaranteed.)
Draft Strategy
Here are the moves the Bills need to make in the draft:
Round 2, pick 18: Clive Walford, TE, Miami -- Walford is more than two years older than his top tight end competition, Maxx Williams, but the Hurricanes star is a more accomplished blocker right now with smooth athleticism and strong hands. He'll be a favorite of Roman, who loves to use his tight end in a multitude of ways. Walford and Scott Chandler won't be the top tight end tandem in football, but they'll be one of the more threatening duos in the AFC.
Round 3, pick 17: Stephone Anthony, ILB, Clemson -- Assuming Spikes signs with another team in free-agency, the Bills kinda-sorta have a depth issue at linebacker, and instead of Rex urging Bills GM Doug Whaley to sign familiar face Davis Harris, who's already 31, Buffalo signs a Harris clone in Anthony.
Like Harris when he came out of Michigan in 2007, at 6'3" and 243 pounds, Anthony is already well-built to be the "thumper" on the inside of Ryan's complex defense. His presence allows Preston Brown and especially Nigel Bradham to be sideline-to-sideline playmakers more often than not.
Round 5, pick 1: Jalston Fowler, FB, Alabama -- Roman's offense undoubtedly needs a helmet-popping lead fullback, and the Bills get that with Fowler from Alabama. Having played in Nick Saban's "power" running game for years, this 5'11", 245-pound bowling-ball of a man fits perfectly.
He can be molded by Buffalo's coaching staff from Day 1 and serve as an occasional outlet on play-action rollouts.
Round 5, pick 19: Austin Hill, WR, Arizona -- Mainly due to an ACL tear, this 6'2", 215-pound wideout will likely fall in the draft. In 2012, Hill reeled in 81 catches for 1,364 yards with 11 touchdowns. Roman will love his versatility -- while with the Wildcats, he was used in a variety of positions across the line of scrimmage, even at tight end and H-back. Also, his father, David, played in the NFL for 12 years, so the "football bloodlines" are there.
Round 6, pick 18: Robert Myers, OG, Tennessee State -- With the new regime's emphasis on the running game, the Bills may look to the offensive line often. Myers is a large but talented road-grader who needs to be developed at the pro level. To start his career, the 6'5", 326-pounder can play in some of Roman's jumbo sets as an extra blocker and eventually get on the field as a guard or swing tackle down the road.
Round 7, pick 17: Brandon Bridge, QB, South Alabama -- A fluid athlete for the quarterback position, Bridge is super raw but possesses a quick but unusual throwing motion and a strong arm. It's not out of the question to think Roman could see a little bit of Colin Kaepernick here. Bridge is obviously much more of a project than Kap was, but Round 7 is the "what the heck, try it" portion of every draft.
Depth Chart
After all those decisions, signings and draft selections, here's how the Buffalo Bills depth chart would look heading into offseason workouts and training camp.
Offense
QB: EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel, Brandon Bridge
RB: LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson, Boobie Dixon
FB: Jalston Fowler
WR: Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Chris Hogan, Austin Hill, Marquise Goodwin, Justin Brown
TE: Scott Chandler, Clive Walford, Chris Gragg, Marqueis Gray
LT: Cordy Glenn
LG: Clint Boling, Cyril Richardson, Chris Williams
C: Eric Wood,
RG: Richie Incognito, Robert Myers
RT: Seantrel Henderson, Cyrus Kouandjio
Cuts will come after the preseason, but that offensive personnel appears to be one that "fits" what Greg Roman wants to do with his attack. Control the line of scrimmage, run the football with power and have efficiency, not volume, be the theme of the passing game.
The presence of McCoy and, yes, Fowler will be felt right away.
Defense
DE: Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes
DT: Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, Stefan Charles, Kenrick Ellis
OLBs: Nigel Bradham, Preston Brown, Manny Lawson, Randell Johnson
MLBs: Stephone Anthony, Ty Powell
CB: Stephon Gilmore, Corey Graham, Leodis McKelvin, Nickell Robey, Ross Cockrell
S: Aaron Williams, Darian Stewart, Duke Williams, Bacarri Rambo, Kenny Ladler
The Bills keep the NFL's most impressive defensive front in tact and don't change much else from one of the Top 5 defenses in football in 2014.
With Ryan designing his well-established game plans, Buffalo will have no problem dominating just about every opposing offense in 2015.
Summary
Buffalo has to leap the New England Patriots in their division, which is a huge challenge, but, at least on paper, they have the coach, the personnel on defense and, potentially now, the clock-eating offense to keep Tom Brady's behind on the bench for a good portion of the game.
The Bills defense didn't skip a beat -- in fact, it got better -- without Alonso in 2014 and much of that had to do with the emergence of super-athletic linebacker Nigel Bradham. After restructuring McCoy's deal, the "price" they paid for the veteran won't be nearly as "bad" although the naysayers who will continue to theorize that Buffalo could have selected a younger and cheaper running back in this loaded draft class will technically never be wrong.
With Ryan's proven ability to "scheme" production out of his linebackers and Chip Kelly's proven ability to do the same with running backs, there's a good chance this trade is ultimately viewed as a "win-win."