Sixteen weeks of the 2024 NFL season are all but in the books, which means the playoffs are just around the corner. Plenty of teams are already locked into the postseason, but the fight for seeding rolls on, while several clubs are still hoping to punch last-minute tickets into the dance. In the meantime, as Christmas draws near, we decided to sort the current projected playoff teams according to their legitimacy.
Who's naughty (i.e. a candidate to crumble)? Who's nice (a legitimate title hopeful)? Let's divvy them up:
Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
For much of the last two years, Patrick Mahomes has relied heavily on late-game heroics, plus a stingy defense, to guide this generation's dynasty. The fact they've won 14 of 15 with a makeshift array of skill weapons suggests they're (still) never to be counted out when it matters most.
Verdict: Nice
Detroit Lions (13-2)
The scariest thing about these Lions isn't their cadre of all-star playmakers, who've enabled Jared Goff to be an elite old-school pocket passer. It's their steady smirk in the face of adversity. Neither a 2023 NFC title-game defeat nor major injuries to key starters has rattled their confidence.
Verdict: Nice
Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
There's a slight element of the 2022 Vikings here, as they continually survive close games. Yet Sam Darnold has been genuinely fearless while feeding their elite wideouts in Kevin O'Connell's system, and Brian Flores' defense thrives under pressure. They're an overachieving but complete bunch.
Verdict: Nice
Buffalo Bills (12-3)
Josh Allen playing Superman is bittersweet; maybe one or two quarterbacks can match his game-breaking dynamism, and yet the Bills are incredibly dependent on him making something out of nothing. It might mean they're just as likely to go one-and-done as they are to hoist the Lombardi. But the upside is there.
Verdict: Nice
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
Jalen Hurts' health is at the forefront after his Week 16 exit, but as long as he's back upright, the Eagles have all the tools -- an explosive ground game, a special receiving corps, an unabashedly physical defense -- to make another deep run. Their key is staying both smart and healthy.
Verdict: Nice
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)
Russell Wilson was a pleasant surprise when he took over as their quarterback, amping up their downfield passing game, and Mike Tomlin's defense has the edge to make any game competitive. They're still quite one-dimensional with the ball in their hands, though, especially if George Pickens isn't involved.
Verdict: Naughty
Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
Their recent win over the Steelers was a major achievement, proving Lamar Jackson isn't just an MVP-level home run hitter when he's facing cakewalk foes. Jackson is truly in peak form, and his electric dual-threat opportunities should only increase from Derrick Henry's bruising assistance in January.
Verdict: Nice
Washington Commanders (10-5)
Jayden Daniels is a highlight waiting to happen as the Commanders' young but unfazed signal-caller, single-handedly making Washington a consistently tough out. Like the Bills with Josh Allen, however, this team is a bit dependent on his magic. Especially because Dan Quinn's defense is more hit or miss.
Verdict: Naughty
Green Bay Packers (10-4)
The fact their four losses came in tight games to the NFC elite -- the Eagles, Lions and Vikings -- is either encouraging or foreboding, depending on how you look at it. We tend to like betting on Jordan Love's special arm, which will also have the benefit of a grind-it-out Josh Jacobs ground game in cold weather.
Verdict: Nice
Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
The fact they're on top of the NFC West is itself a minor Christmas miracle. Yes, Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have been there, done that, but their offense has been incredibly streaky. They certainly could catch fire in a big spot, but they've struggled to string together complete performances.
Verdict: Naughty
Houston Texans (9-6)
The star debut of C.J. Stroud promised big things for Houston to close 2023, but the Texans have been more of a fractured winner this time around, enduring major injuries (i.e. Stefon Diggs), ugly suspensions (Azeez Al-Shaair) and more erratic passing from Stroud behind an unpredictable front.
Verdict: Naughty
Denver Broncos (9-6)
There's no doubt their future looks bright thanks to the mobility and poise of rookie Bo Nix, and their defense has also pitched some solid performances with up-and-comers like Nik Bonitto. They may be a year away from true contention, however, as Sean Payton looks to fill out Nix's supporting cast.
Verdict: Naughty
Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
The move to Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback may provide the offense with a multi-week jumpstart, and they're capable of some splash plays thanks to Bijan Robinson and Darnell Mooney. Raheem Morris has a bottom-half defense, though, and the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers are arguably a more formidable bunch.
Verdict: Naughty