NFL awards update, analysis: Is the 2025 MVP truly a two-man race?

Sports bettors have notoriously short memories, and this behavioral pattern has never been more apparent than in their reactionary disposition in the 2025 NFL MVP race.

The market has mirrored that of a friendly crowd at a music festival. In short, whichever candidate is last to perform on stage is getting the loudest round of applause, but the adoration level is a moving target based on the performance of the next artist.

To illustrate, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford remained the 2025 NFL MVP favorite Monday morning despite a modest showing by his standards. He threw for 243 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions as the Rams lost 31-28 to the Carolina Panthers as 10.5-point favorites.

However, Stafford was bumped to the second favorite following the performance of Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye in a 33-15 victory over the New York Giants on Monday night. Maye threw for 282 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in his latest strong primetime outing against a limited opponent.

Now, Maye is the MVP favorite with odds of around -125 in most markets. We believe he's unplayable at this price, but the good news for Stafford backers (+125) is this could be your last chance to get the 37-year-old at a plus-money return.

You can bet on the 2025 NFL MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:

This is because the 2025 MVP pendulum appears destined to swing again following the Week 14 slate. Maye can't improve his stock because the Patriots are on their bye week, but Stafford appears prime for a ceiling-level performance. The Rams face a Cardinals club whose generous defense is giving up 25.3 points per contest and is bottom third at defending the pass. It's not difficult to envision Stafford throwing for 250-plus yards with three touchdowns, and such an outing would put him back in the MVP race amid a relatively soft season-ending schedule, with the exception of a Week 16 visit to the Seattle Seahawks.

Maye's season-ending stretch includes a home rematch with the Buffalo Bills and a Week 16 visit to a presumably desperate Baltimore Ravens club. 

Any longshots worth considering?  

Speaking of the Bills, reigning MVP Josh Allen emerged as the favorite following Buffalo's 28-21 victory over the Chiefs, but subsequent road losses to the Dolphins and Texans have crippled his chances, and his odds are now around the +3000 range.

Even so, Allen is the lone extreme longshot who might be worth a dart throw at this point. This is because the Bills have a reasonable chance at running the table, starting with his weekend's matchup against rival Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, and a string of MVP-level outings would make Allen difficult to ignore.

For example, he accounted for six touchdowns in a 44-32 Week 11 victory over Tampa Bay. He would need something close to a duplicate performance numerous times down the stretch, with the Week 15 visit to New England serving as the turning point. Allen would have to clearly outplay Maye in a decisive win for the Bills, followed by a handful of ceiling performances, in order to merit serious consideration.  

Is there value in OPOY race? 

Just a couple short weeks ago, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was a runaway favorite for Offensive Player of the Year, with odds in the -400 range. He was unplayable then, but he's now priced around -110, with Seattle wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a similar range.

Taylor's stock plummeted due to a two-game stretch in which he was limited to a total of 143 rushing yards in zero touchdowns in losses against the Chiefs and Texans, strong defensive clubs that understandably geared their game plans toward slowing Taylor.

We expect Taylor to get back on track this weekend against the Jaguars, with a 100-yard-plus performance with a touchdown likely putting him back in the OPOY lead.

Smith-Njigba has quietly amassed an NFL-best 1,336 receiving yards and seven touchdowns and is a worthy OPOY candidate. However, he suffers from Seattle's relatively low national profile and a run-heavy offense that could limit his ceiling.   

The Week 15 meeting between the Seahawks and Colts in Seattle could be the turning point in the OPOY race, but we're leaning toward the current value on Taylor.